Gap filler thread to accommodate the ECL now happening and the troughs coming in from the west, before the big event later in the week.
The TV towers on Mt. Dandy have just disappeared in the lowering cloud from the east. Looks like some light rain or drizzle creeping in across Gippsland too, might get a bit tonight.
Past experience shows rain from the east or north east usually makes it here (east suburbs) but it usually always brings very low cloud and drizzle, as per this afternoo and evening.
3mm this morning in FC and still raining. I wasn't really expecting anything.
Looks like the rain will continue for a few more hours at least. Good falls out east.
Not sure about the front tomorrow. Looks blustery but the rain looks like it will tend to peak on the ranges and near the coast with the system very westerly rather than the more typical NW/SW sequence. Maybe a few mm's if we are lucky. Despite all this weather the uppers stay mild - probably too warm for snow in the alps apart from really high.
I've just about given up on forecasts/ models that presently don't seem able to manage accuracy a day out, let alone further. But so long as the 'mistake' is rain, I'll take it
A bit of warm air advection at present from the soupy Tasman Sea. Currently 15c with a Southerly which is the warmest it's been here for nearly 3 weeks.
Well I mentioned last night that we might get a drop, and we've had 15.5mm! It's not very often we get good rain from that direction, it definitely seems we are now in different times, meteorologically speaking.
A couple of cold fronts to come over the next 24-36hrs to add to the total, and then.....
Second surprise fall in less than a week. 20mm at our place in Ferny Creek and the AWS got nearly 25mm. Was thinking 1mm if we got lucky, zero if we didn't.
MTD is now ~130mm which means we've had two months of above average in a row
Next system showing up in the bight and should be worth 5-10mm at a guess.
It's getting quite dark here at 1pm but looks like the bulk of the showers are affecting North Central areas. Can see the next front reaching Portland, so won't get here til evening probably.
Meh...nothing interesting. Typical 11 degree forecast for the city which will turn out to be 13 or 14 in reality because the showers will skirt south and north.
Winters in victoria (and southeast australia) are pretty boring unless you live above 800m asl.
In fact the most interesting of weather will be next week with all the frosts that are typical aftet a strong front.