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Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

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I_Love_Storms
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Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

Post by I_Love_Storms »

This is what GFS has from 22/06 to 25/06...It looks like they have the activity peaking right at the end of the run after a massive cold pool smashes into a moist airmass and a huge cut off low forms.

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Let's keep an eye on this...EC has something as well
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Wilko
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Re: Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

Post by Wilko »

Yes all the models seem to be on this incl the Swell models
Somethings a brewin !
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hillybilly
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Re: Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

Post by hillybilly »

Models still showing a wet system but getting a bit weird with the system potentially cutting off. As a result both GFS and EC are starting to pinch the cold. Sitting tight on this system waiting for the progs to settle down.
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Re: Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

Post by StratoBendigo »

Still looking very cold on Friday. 850T possibly down to around -5c that evening. And another wave of cold air Sunday night possible too.

Over at the ski forum they're talking about "Snow In Strange Places".
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hillybilly
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Re: Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

Post by hillybilly »

Progs are trending a bit colder. Current batch have 850Ts dipping to about -4C on Friday evening (EC just touches this while GFS gets to about -4.5C). Good spell of showers with the cold air, so moisture won't be an issue.

-4C is usually the cut-off for snow about the tops of the Dandenongs, so in with a chance here. At -5C we get settling snow, and at -3C you might get sleet or graupel.

Would like to see the temperatures dip by another degree ;)
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Re: Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

Post by Macedonian »

Snow forecast to 800m on friday, im thinking it might be lower than that.
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
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Supercellimpact
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Re: Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

Post by Supercellimpact »

Clocked up 1mm in the last hour.
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Re: Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

Post by hillybilly »

Snow forecast to 800m on friday, im thinking it might be lower than that.
Latest model runs are colder - 850Ts dipping to around -4.5C on Friday evening with the freezing level dipping to around 900m. That is cold enough for snow in Ferny Creek provide we get showers :D Progs are also wetter - have 20-40mm in Melbourne's easterb burbs with two burst of showers/rain on Thursday and then again on Friday.
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Re: Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

Post by Macedonian »

They said 700m on the Ch 2 weather last night.
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
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Re: Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

Post by Geoff »

Latest EC going for a top of only 4c here on Friday, with sleet in the evening. :D
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Re: Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

Post by hillybilly »

Progs looking similar this morning. Solid front today, then a second colder burst tomorrow. Decent rainfall totals, thinking about 30mm here in FC.

850T dipping to -4 to -5C which is usually cold enough for flurries here. Showers won't be a problem, so what we get will depend on the temperatures.

Big falls out west and southeast SA. Mt Gambier had its wettest 24 hours for June on record, and could well break the winter record. All that record warm water in the Indian Ocean is feeding plenty of moisture across ;)
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Re: Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

Post by Macedonian »

Its getting windy here at work in macedon. Not real strong but its definitely ramping up.
Home- "Shepherd's Bush" at Mt Macedon. 870m
Work- "Bolobek" at Macedon. 430m
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Re: Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

Post by StratoBendigo »

hillybilly wrote: Big falls out west and southeast SA. Mt Gambier had its wettest 24 hours for June on record, and could well break the winter record. All that record warm water in the Indian Ocean is feeding plenty of moisture across ;)
Quite a warm Leeuwin Current in that region presently hugging the coast. That probably amplified the rain totals. In fact the ocean temps outside the Heads are significantly warmer than temps in Port Phillip Bay: http://www.baywx.com.au/temps.html

700 HPa temps look super chilly tomorrow.
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Re: Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

Post by Wilko »

I don't think I have ever seen that big a variation on Ocean Temps
I'm astounded :o
Also I reckon we are going to get slammed later today..that cold front is fierce
The core HP are 959 !!!
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Re: Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

Post by Geoff »

Getting seriously windy up here now, I'll need to keep one eye on the trees while I'm working out in this! :sccary:
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Re: Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

There was one gust around mid day that had me doing a mad dash out of the shed which is under a very large narrow leaved peppermint :-o :o
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Re: Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

Post by Sean »

The wind.
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Re: Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

Post by Onetahuti »

Radar looking impressive as the front crosses the bay. Happy to be home before it arrives.
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Re: Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

Post by stevco123 »

And the official forecast is in. Melbourne metro can now expect a maximum of 9 or 10 degrees, including the city
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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mick
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Re: Massive Winter Storm Event: 23 June onwards

Post by mick »

I have been watching the bay all day, its pretty rough, when she swings areound to the s/w and gets going, tomorrow will see everything covered in sea foam.

I will take the camera to work tomorrow and try and post a pic an hour.
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