This is what GFS has from 22/06 to 25/06...It looks like they have the activity peaking right at the end of the run after a massive cold pool smashes into a moist airmass and a huge cut off low forms.
Let's keep an eye on this...EC has something as well
Models still showing a wet system but getting a bit weird with the system potentially cutting off. As a result both GFS and EC are starting to pinch the cold. Sitting tight on this system waiting for the progs to settle down.
Progs are trending a bit colder. Current batch have 850Ts dipping to about -4C on Friday evening (EC just touches this while GFS gets to about -4.5C). Good spell of showers with the cold air, so moisture won't be an issue.
-4C is usually the cut-off for snow about the tops of the Dandenongs, so in with a chance here. At -5C we get settling snow, and at -3C you might get sleet or graupel.
Would like to see the temperatures dip by another degree
Snow forecast to 800m on friday, im thinking it might be lower than that.
Latest model runs are colder - 850Ts dipping to around -4.5C on Friday evening with the freezing level dipping to around 900m. That is cold enough for snow in Ferny Creek provide we get showers Progs are also wetter - have 20-40mm in Melbourne's easterb burbs with two burst of showers/rain on Thursday and then again on Friday.
Progs looking similar this morning. Solid front today, then a second colder burst tomorrow. Decent rainfall totals, thinking about 30mm here in FC.
850T dipping to -4 to -5C which is usually cold enough for flurries here. Showers won't be a problem, so what we get will depend on the temperatures.
Big falls out west and southeast SA. Mt Gambier had its wettest 24 hours for June on record, and could well break the winter record. All that record warm water in the Indian Ocean is feeding plenty of moisture across
hillybilly wrote:
Big falls out west and southeast SA. Mt Gambier had its wettest 24 hours for June on record, and could well break the winter record. All that record warm water in the Indian Ocean is feeding plenty of moisture across
Quite a warm Leeuwin Current in that region presently hugging the coast. That probably amplified the rain totals. In fact the ocean temps outside the Heads are significantly warmer than temps in Port Phillip Bay: http://www.baywx.com.au/temps.html
I don't think I have ever seen that big a variation on Ocean Temps
I'm astounded
Also I reckon we are going to get slammed later today..that cold front is fierce
The core HP are 959 !!!
I have been watching the bay all day, its pretty rough, when she swings areound to the s/w and gets going, tomorrow will see everything covered in sea foam.
I will take the camera to work tomorrow and try and post a pic an hour.