Victoria: Strong autumn front 17/18 March

[hillybilly]

Progs firming on a strong cold front for later this week. All showing strengthening warm/hot northerlies on Thursday with a solid band of rain Friday ahead of a squally cold front. Looks to be a dramatic change in airmass, potential for some significant wind and potential for decent rain. There is a a decent infeed of tropical moisture ahead of the front so the ingredients for this to be a decent rain event.

[StratoBendigo]

Yep, looks like a decent cold front for once. Strong winds on Thursday could be a worry, but we could get 20mm on Friday if it holds together.

But for us temps are back on the rise soon after - hopefully a real good follow up front by Easter (Access-G is hinting as much).

[stevco123]

A tad windier than i was expecting today with winds howling at up to 60km/h

[Gordon]

ACCESS R for 11 EDT Friday looks very nice & latest BOM forecast for us Thursday/ Friday is a significant upgrade.

[stevco123]

I think today is a mini event here. We have winds constantly gusting ay over 50km.h, branches down and a lot of dust blowing about. Was in docklands for a while and it was quite pleasant. But here in cranbourne, i haven't seem winds like this in a few months easily.

[Geoff]

My favorite type of sky to wake up to this morning, Accas from horizon to horizon, are they sure there's no rain coming until late tomorrow?
EC have upped rainfall totals for here again, could be nearly 40mm over Thursday - Saturday, GFS not so bullish but still 10 - 15mm with a good follow up next week, the tide is definitely turning!

[StratoBendigo]

I hope EC is right. It reckons 18mm for here. Access-R looks OK too. GFS not keen at all.

But things don't look so encouraging next week. Another High pressure ridge dominating....

[I_Love_Storms]

I am liking the look of EC, trust it with this. Likely a big thundery rainband over night Thurs intensifying from around 5am Fri til mid morning

[StratoBendigo]

I am liking the look of EC, trust it with this. Likely a big thundery rainband over night Thurs intensifying from around 5am Fri til mid morning

Yeah, I tend to agree. Really tight temp gradient on this incoming front and good PW in the mix.

[Wilko]

Holy cow
Bom forecast looks good early Friday
I wonder if timing ok for some storm action Tommorrow night,

[hillybilly]

Just waiting to see if the models stay on track and so far so go. GFS going for a solid system with widespread 10-25mm falls. ACCESS-R/ACCESS looks similar and a bit wetter. EC updated (yet to see the rainfall) has a really strong system with pressures dropping into the 990s with the frontal passage

This strikes me as the strongest front in a long while - though last year had almost no proper fronts so that's not saying a lot

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Seems I better get some mowing done asap..
Could have sworn I just heard thunder..
That wind was just typical last night, had just had all the tools out the front, cleaned up a treat, looked fab for 26 hours..

[Geoff]

Could have sworn I just heard thunder..

Hearing it up here too Shell, muffled booming sound...
I'm seeding a new lawn for a customer tomorrow, should be perfect timing hopefully.

[Twiggy]

Not been on for a while... But no rain to be recorded here in 6 months! 65ks north of Bendigo. I liked the look of progs, but always let down. (Tomorrow.. Storms likely very high, but no rain) worry wort I am!! Just waiting for an out break.. Keep the farmers head held high. Will keep trying... Maybe I should hold back on watching the weather and see how
we go.

[Twiggy]

Just waiting to see if the models stay on track and so far so go. GFS going for a solid system with widespread 10-25mm falls. ACCESS-R/ACCESS looks similar and a bit wetter. EC updated (yet to see the rainfall) has a really strong system with pressures dropping into the 990s with the frontal passage

This strikes me as the strongest front in a long while - though last year had almost no proper fronts so that's not saying a lot

Believe you me... We will still miss out.

[hillybilly]

Models upped totals more overnight. GFS, ACCESS-R and EC got 30 to 50mm here. I'll take that. Hey might even be a chance for our monthly average if they comes off at the top end (the average here is ~95mm, and geez it's been a slow start).

Thinking AM tomorrow is going to be wild - squally winds, heavy rain, thunder, thick fog up here.

Reasonably cold air following the front with 850T dipping to about 2C so might see the first wet flurries about the alps. We've got so much warm water around us ATM which is good for rainfall but which means getting really cold air going to be hard.

Here's the sounding through the front over Melbourne's eastern burbs tomorrow AM. Saturated from the bottom to the top, tropical volumes of moisture and a screaming jet aloft to provide the lift.

[Wilko]

I got up in the middle of the night and thought I was having a nightmare
Ants everywhere in bathroom
Hope it's good omen

[Didjman]

My wifes car was full of them(ants) - inside! Yesterday. Never seen so many. Ground is covered with them in parts. They obviously know something.
Peter

[Onetahuti]

In Lakes Entrance on a respite escape, rain totals for here tomorrow not anywhere as heavy (8-20mm) but think I will make the best of today's weather to get out.

[StratoBendigo]

Looking good for 10-15mm. Not a massive amount but anything is gold at this time of the year.

The cooler temps will be most welcome since I've had enough of this heat....