Vic: Warm start then maybe some rain - 1st to 14th Mar 2016

[hillybilly]

Got thick fog and mizzle here now with showers. Picked up another 0.8mm, so 1.8mm for today so far.

Latest GFS is going off, with 25 to 50mm in central areas, and widespread 10 to 30mm elsewhere... Geez hope so, that would be a nice autumn break here.

[Gordon]

Yes 06z GFS suddenly has us down for 75 mm in the next 24 hours . I know the 06z and 18z runs are considered the more 'whacky' runs of the four, but even so...



Edit: Worth putting up the chart, just for a laugh!

Double edit: Certainly an extraordinary Adelaide radar at the moment: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR641.loop.shtml#skip" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[WeatherViewer]

I recorded 2mm here in Wyndham Vale with that rain band passing through.

[tonycynic]

Adelaide are still copping it. Lucky them.

[hillybilly]

Like the look of the radar. Lots of rain, so from this point we have gotta do OK. Whether that is 10 or 30mm.. well we will find out in the next 24 hours

We've had 3.2mm so far and foggy with light rain. That's our wettest day for ~3 weeks.


Those falls back in SA are fantastic and great to see. They've had a scorching summer, and a horrible spring rainfall wise so good to see some relief for them.

[Gordon]

Am I right in thinking the 'dent' in the 512 km Melbourne radar image isn't real, because the Mildura radar is down? If so, there's a lot of rain in line for us right back to the SA border and beyond. Looks that way on the satellite.

[Geoff]

Always hard to know what's happening in the "radar hole" up there Gordon, but I looked at the Bendigo webcam and it's pretty wet there.
Bit of gentle rain/drizzle here so far, just perfect for the newly dressed and seeded lawn, don't want heavy rain on it yet, washing it all away.

[I_Love_Storms]

BOM forecast looks promising slight upgrade for Melb 3-10mm up to 5-15mm.. hopefully we can get on the upper end!

[Wilko]

Where's the bloody rain
This is crap

[typhoon29]

light rain here should get heavier this avo. A grey wet day.

[stevco123]

I;m convinced that it'll be dry until late afternoon. That's by looking at the satellite. There's the first blob of cloud which has just passed us, then there's some lighter cloud, and then the second blob is a few hours away. THis first batch of rain has significantly diminished.

Unfortunately it looks to be slipping to the south a little, so my tip is for 3-7mm all up falling in about 2 hours.

Sigh...

[hillybilly]

Not exactly a drought buster this one currently. Have added another 0.4mm since 6am. Just light rain. Pushes us to a lofty total of 3.4mm.

GFS and ACCESS has the main action for central areas later - mainly arvo into the evening. Am a bit worried... the whole thing is moving so slowly and there's a big hole in the rain to our northwest.

Definitely not write if off stage... but geez would like to see it start to add up soon.

[Dane]

Just 1mm up to 9am here and no recordable rain since.
Looking a bit grim as only patchy light rain on the Melbourne radar at the moment.
Hope it picks up soon.

[Wilko]

Looking good to the west now near Stawell where it seems to be backbuilding
Hope I am not putting the Moz on it as I'm starting to get superstitious these days
Should be in Melbourne by 3 PM with the peak heating could be some really good downpours if all goes well

[Geoff]

I've just been running the 512km radar loop, and it's all emerging from the radar hole around Horsham, while the really heavy stuff coming away from Adelaide region has now disappeared into the hole, so we have to presume there could be plenty more coming as the afternoon progresses - fingers crossed!

[Wilko]

Just drove through very tropical rain near Scoresby
Radar certainly understating the rain rate
Just hope hold together

[nafets]

Rain picking up here in inner north. Liking the look of the radar with the intensification around Macedon.

[Dane]

Rain seems to avoiding my place. one of the few places in Melbourne to record no rain at all since 9am.
Still sitting on 1mm for the event.

[hillybilly]

Finally the rain has set in up here. Seems to be more or less tracking the GFS/ACCESS scenario which had a pretty decent period of rain the next 6-12 hours. No comes down to how long and how heavy...

Just passing 5.4mm for the "event" - not drought break but at least half way to 10mm which is kinda the bottom for what I'm expecting today.

Radar's hard to read - very lumpy and the laminar nature of the flow means that the rain holes in the northeast and southwest suburbs aren't real - they are just the rain not being detected because it is moving right angles to the radar beam.

Looks like the Macedon Ranges through to near Ballarat region is leading for today now... couple of spots in the 10-20mm range.

EDIT> just passed 8.6mm. Geez it is slow going. Radar still looks quite encouraging to our north for more rain. There's a pocket of particularly heavy rain developing north of Macedon currently. Watching to see if they continues to grow.

[Dane]

Finally getting some rain here, up to 3.4mm's since 9am. Not much but its the heaviest daily fall here since January.