Vic: Cooler with some showers: Third week of Feb 2016

[Macedonian]

3and a bit mm at my place since Sunday. No rain, just drizzle from the night time mist.
At least we haven't had any really hot weather with this dry summer.
Not enough sun/warmth for solar hot water over the last few days so
I've had to resort to sparking up the Rayburn stove,it's been nice to have it going because it has been quite chilly, 7C yesterday morning and Tuesday as well.

I wish something would happen as far as decent rain. Ive ever seen it so dry around the Macedon ranges.
It sucks.

[hillybilly]

I wish something would happen as far as decent rain. Ive never seen it so dry around the Macedon ranges.
It sucks

Bad luck Macedonian. Got a friend in the upper Yarra who has also been missed on a string of events (just 2mm yesterday).

This summer has been a real case of winners and loosers. Jan saw over 100mm in some suburbs, while others only got 30mm (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/m ... urne.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;) and Dec varied from just shy of 100mm to around 25mm. Same crazy gradient around the state. Up here it's ended up a wet summer since Christmas Day with nearly 200mm in that time.

Bit of a chance tomorrow with what could be a decent showery band. Not a lot in it, but GFS suggesting locally to 5mm.

Should then get something middle of next week but progs are jumpy.

[Gordon]

It's certainly been a remarkable 2016 so far for Ferny Creek - a real rainfall 'island' in central Vic. Even by Dandenongs standards its been an amazing run comparatively speaking - including the rain just this week. 3.5 mm for us, and we've done better than many

[hillybilly]

Another misty and drizzly morning in FC. Just 0.2mm but keeps the dampness.

Quite liking the look of today's front. Slow moving and a good low level moisture max. Thinking 2-5mm for us.

It's certainly been a remarkable 2016 so far for Ferny Creek - a real rainfall 'island' in central Vic

You can kinda see what is going on in this map. Vic has been split between a really wet east and a drier southwest. Thing that's helped us is the humidity in the low level and the northwesterly steering. The high humidity has given us a series of substantial drizzle event - one in Jan with ~15mm, and two in Feb with ~10mm and ~20mm. These just keep it ticking over. Thinking part of the story is that the water around southeast Australia has been record warm for months.

The northwesterly steering also pushes storms over us. These have a pretty predictable pattern with the heaviest falls around Belgrave and reducing rainfall as you go north over the Dandenongs. Seen plenty of cases (and bad luck Geoff) that the southern Dandenongs will get twice what Mt Dandenong/Olinda gets (the pattern reverses in winter southwesterlies...).

That Ballarat through Macedon region has really suffered. Thinking just bad luck - that one big southeasterly event in January could have easily piled on 50-100mm.



Almost time for the new thread - more heat and weather for next week. Maybe a rainband and storms (or maybe not).

[Geoff]

Yep, we're on 124mm YTD in Olinda, so just over half as much as more southern areas of the hills. Getting moister and starting to green up here now, front lawn is more green than brown now.
Nice misty autumnal start to today, you'd think it was April.

[hillybilly]

Yep, we're on 124mm YTD in Olinda, so just over half as much as more southern areas of the hills.

Our YTD is ~160mm so your not doing to bad Geoff - main difference was that single storm in January when we got ~40mm in an hour. That was the best storm for us since the big La Nina events around 2010-2012 so a bit of a freak event.

We also picked up ~50mm on Boxing Day. Thinking you got 30mm or so from that?

Just started drizzling at home with the front approaching.

[Geoff]

Bit odd, the front seems to have died on the doorstep, lack of heating?

[hillybilly]

Bit odd, the front seems to have died on the doorstep, lack of heating

Yep... bit surprised. Looked good coming across the southwest coast and subsequently gone missing. GFS missed this one. Bit of drizzle in FC currently, but not thinking it will amount to much.

Now comes the warm-up ahead of a hot windy Tuesday

EDIT> 0.4mm for that dying front. Was thinking 4mm, but not to be Looks like Macedon top scored with a few's up that way.

[Macedonian]

We got 4mm of drizzle Friday night.
Down at work in Macedon our YTD is only 28mm
It is shocking. Can't quite believe it.
Still green high up on the mountain but hopeless once you get about half way down