Vic: Trough then cut-off low: Last week of January 2016

Jake Smethurst · Post by **Jake Smethurst** » Wed Jan 27, 2016 3:19 pm

Very dark looking over the bay. Hopefully it doesn't decay as it moves over, and can edge slightly more north.

Some pictures here of flash flooding near Geelong: https://www.facebook.com/theaustralianweatherforum/

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Wed Jan 27, 2016 3:23 pm

I'm hoping the cell out to our West doesn't fall apart completely - seems to be weakening on the radar.
Sun is trying to make an appearance...

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Wed Jan 27, 2016 3:27 pm

Getting a tad excited now. That band is slowly, slowly edging towards the far outer south-east here towards Cranbourne.

Looking good for sharp falls going by Geelong. 25mm so far there. Here's hoping it gets here.

Watching...watching...

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Wed Jan 27, 2016 3:39 pm

20 mm at Geelong in 16 minutes! Up to 31 mm and climbing.

Finding it hard to follow the path/ formation of these storms - the Geelong one seems to have moved slighty NE now and there's a new Melbourne area STW to reflect that.

James · Post by **James** » Wed Jan 27, 2016 3:43 pm

well i will be going out to water the vegetables soon...doesnt look like it will be coming here!

occluded · Post by **occluded** » Wed Jan 27, 2016 3:45 pm

Judging by emergencyvic.info, Geelong got well swamped by that heavy rain...

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Wed Jan 27, 2016 3:52 pm

Thnunder now here in Cranbourne West.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Wed Jan 27, 2016 3:54 pm

00Z GFS just has 10mm for us in what's left of this non-event.

I hear some office buildings in Geelong CBD are being evacuated due to flooding, so I suppose it wasn't a non-event for them.

Such a hit-and-miss situation.

Jake Smethurst · Post by **Jake Smethurst** » Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:00 pm

Can hear thunder and see lightning looking west/southwest across the bay

Post by **hillybilly** » Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:12 pm

There's convergence between the storm outflow and northeasterly winds. Expecting to see showers and storms now in FC. Radar should... No guarantees... Explode next few frames.

Lily · Post by **Lily** » Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:16 pm

Just had confirmation our stores in Geelong are being evacuated due to flooding (Moorabool St, Sth Geelong)

Jake Smethurst · Post by **Jake Smethurst** » Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:17 pm

Clouds were so strange before ... they were moving towards the thunderstorms, now they've just virtually stopped moving, but lots of development.
Hope your store is okay Lily!

Didjman · Post by **Didjman** » Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:22 pm

hillybilly wrote:There's convergence between the storm outflow and northeasterly winds. Expecting to see showers and storms now in FC. Radar should... No guarantees... Explode next few frames.

Nothing much happening yet - visually from up here. Will keep an eye open.
Peter

Wilko · Post by **Wilko** » Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:23 pm

Down the Bay now
Definitely heading east north east and getting darker by the minute
Will take some pics and post them later eh !

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:26 pm

Check out the 256km Yarrawonga radar loop and the two storms near Swan Hill and their direction of travel. Crazy!

Meanwhile, not much happening here....

Dane · Post by **Dane** » Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:29 pm

Getting teased by this storm - Radar showing rain just to our south for half an hour or more.
About 3 spots of rain so far and several rumbles.

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:33 pm

Avalon = 55mm !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

so far

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:36 pm

stevco123 » Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:33 pm wrote:
stevco123 wrote:Avalon = 55mm !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

so far

And in just 30 minutes. A very impressive rainfall rate.

Jake Smethurst · Post by **Jake Smethurst** » Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:38 pm

Looks like it's running out of oomph before it reaches here in Parkdale. Seems to be sliding back towards the east a bit, although lots of convective development happening just ahead of it, so hopefully something happens very shortly here.

WeatherViewer · Post by **WeatherViewer** » Wed Jan 27, 2016 4:41 pm

I'm at work in the city, but by the looks of the radar back home in Wyndham Vale might be in for a chance.

The Australian Weather Forum

Vic: Trough then cut-off low: Last week of January 2016

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