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Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November 5?

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hillybilly
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Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November 5?

Post by hillybilly »

Thread for the next sequence. Really long stretch of troughs. Models been on/off/on/off for this one. Starts warm/hot on Sunday with an approaching westerly cut-off then the trough sits near Melbourne for a week. Every day looks like having showers, tending to focus on the east/northeast but stretching into central/west areas at time. Could end with something substantial in about a week.

Moisture looks OK. With a high a long way south (what happened to the westerlies???) we continue to pump moisture into eastern Australia from the Coral and Tasman Seas.

Picking amounts and day's isn't easy. E.g., GFS has near 10mm here tomorrow near the change, while the 0Z EC has zero. ACCESS sits between.

Thinking the east will do well from onshore showers and inland storms, central areas hit and miss, and the west will struggle. Looks like bascially well above average temperature the whole week, making it pretty certain this one will be our hottest October on record.
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Re: Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November

Post by StratoBendigo »

There's starting to be some convergence (if you can call it that) in the forecast models for the coming weekend - i.e. 15 to 40mm.

I'm starting to get a little optimistic now, although given its tropical origin anything could happen.
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Re: Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November

Post by Jake Smethurst »

There were some ripper thunderstorms across southwest Victoria this afternoon, in-terms mostly of lightning, according to the parents. Radar generally backs that up. Was much more active than what is currently shown.

Band of general thundery showers continues to slowly edge eastwards. Will be touch and go as to whether or not we here in Melbs can get some storm activity. Fingers crossed! :)

Meanwhile it's been blustery here in Parkdale most of the day.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND

For people in the Mallee, Wimmera and parts of the Central, South West, Northern Country and North Central Forecast Districts.
Issued at 2:50 pm Sunday, 25 October 2015.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Stawell, Ballarat, Maryborough and Geelong.
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
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Re: Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November

Post by Tassiedave »

For the first time this October its raining here in Grindelwald (15 km north of Launceston). Easing off as I type - we may sneak 1mm.
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Re: Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

back from a trip to the west of the state.
very sad looking out west of Horsham..
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Re: Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November

Post by Geoff »

The band of showers creeping in from the west is starting to look a bit pathetic on the radar, thundery activity still showing on the tracker but must be dry storms as no rain recorded out west yet.
StratoBendigo wrote:There's starting to be some convergence (if you can call it that) in the forecast models for the coming weekend - i.e. 15 to 40mm.
I'm starting to get a little optimistic now, although given its tropical origin anything could happen.
I'm an eternal optimist myself Strato, but the models have been doing this for weeks or even months now, and nothing comes of it.
Got to be a turning point sooner or later, let's hope this is it! :D
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Re: Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November

Post by Dane »

Quite a bit of thunder and lightning around here but only a few spots of rain.
Looks like the heavier stuff is just to my south.
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Re: Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November

Post by hillybilly »

Few high based showers here with distant rumbles (about 40km always which suggests they must be really high as the sound is carrying easy).

Not expecting much, and what we get will be in the sw'ly flow behind the front, late tonight or early tomorrow. Ec has a couple of mms and GFS 5 to 10mm. Thinking anything will be a bonus.

Better chances as the week progresses.

Btw Melbourne on track to have its hottest October by nearly a degree :o and that's the new cooler site. Hope it's not a sign for summer :? Rainfall looks like coming in third Lowest, unless something surprises. Approaching system is better once we tick into the new month... Hoping for a wet November ;)
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Re: Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November

Post by Geoff »

Heavy rain here for about, oooh..... 20 seconds? :roll:
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Re: Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November

Post by mad*moo73 »

Witnesses a stunning orange sunset on the way to pick my daughter up in Highett & had a spectacular rainbow behind me. On way home huge, bright cg's from the cell that passed over Carrum. Once home lots of bright flashes from a cell near Dandenong! :lighting: :lighting: :lighting: :lighting:
Double Whopper award winning footy tipper!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November

Post by mick »

Actually had a few flans here from these fast popping up cells on the east of the bay. No rain to speak of, most of it not hitting ground, nothinh like radar shows.

Was a ripper sunset due to the inonesian fires that are trying to kill mankind.

Cell at carrum now over.
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Re: Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November

Post by hillybilly »

Decent drizzle this morning in FC. Once again EC has picked the sequence - bascially a dry front (had just light scattered rain consistent with a bit of convective precip), then showers/drizzle on a secondary SW'ly change Monday AM. If GFS had been right lately we wouldn't be in a drought :evil: :roll"

Radar looks ok for maybe a mm or two. Unfortunately, going to clear by noon or there abouts.

Still troughie for the next week, with Sat/Sun currently looking the best chance in Melbourne. Further east and north could get a bit most days. I'm not expecting this to be overly wet, but hoping we get some.
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Re: Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November

Post by Skywalker »

Just had a 5 minute moderate shower push through here at work with that change. Had a dry ride into work, arriving half an hour before it hit so perfect timing. :D

Saw the potential for instability forecast for the upcoming weekend. Currently still deciding whether or not I'll be going to Cowes, however if there is more chance of storms down that way I'll be definitely driving down. ;)
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Re: Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November

Post by hillybilly »

2mm of drizzly stuff this morning. Nice to avoid a completely dry front - it will also moisten things up for a day or two.

Looking closely at the new EC, ACCESS and GFS they are all getting quite keen for the coming weekend with potential for heavier falls. Too far out to get excited, but fingers crossed.
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Re: Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November

Post by StratoBendigo »

Looks pretty humid for the weekend too. I'm still not 100% convinced we'll get anything substantial, but here's hoping....
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Re: Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November

Post by StratoBendigo »

Potentially off topic but somewhat relevant to our weather - check out this satellite image of the Indian Ocean taken on Sunday: http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/nas ... dian-ocean" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It really shows up some of the dynamics happening there at present, including all the terrible smoke haze over Indonesia.

Most of the forecast models have settled down for the weekend. Might get 5-10mm here if we're lucky.
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Re: Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November

Post by hillybilly »

Start of the next system showing up on the radar/sat pic with increasing humidity in Queensland and the upper trough back in SA. Ingredients are certainly there.

Progs are still look generally good, but jumpy. Don't know whether to expect 15 or 50mm in Ferny Creek!

Couple of days before it will settle down.
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Re: Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November

Post by Tassiedave »

A lot of Australians wouldn't believe it but we really need rain down here in Tassie. Monthly total for Launceston sits at 0.6 mm and we are set to smash our previous driest October which was 9.9 mm. If we do not get any rain before Sunday morning which is a distinct possibility it could be our second driest month EVER only surpassed by February 2003.
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Re: Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November

Post by StratoBendigo »

Tassiedave wrote:A lot of Australians wouldn't believe it but we really need rain down here in Tassie. Monthly total for Launceston sits at 0.6 mm and we are set to smash our previous driest October which was 9.9 mm. If we do not get any rain before Sunday morning which is a distinct possibility it could be our second driest month EVER only surpassed by February 2003.
Extraordinary. The persistent ridge of High Pressure and no LWT in the region would be to blame.

Anyway, things seem to be looking better for this weekend in Vic. The main forecast models currently have 18 - 30mm for us - that will mostly water the weeds now that our lawn is dust.
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Re: Stretch of troughs with showers: October 25 to November

Post by Skywalker »

Tassiedave » Wed Oct 28, 2015 9:45 am wrote:
Tassiedave wrote:A lot of Australians wouldn't believe it but we really need rain down here in Tassie. Monthly total for Launceston sits at 0.6 mm and we are set to smash our previous driest October which was 9.9 mm. If we do not get any rain before Sunday morning which is a distinct possibility it could be our second driest month EVER only surpassed by February 2003.
Many parts of Victoria share your pain, especially out west & many central parts.

From today's Herald Sun.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/most-o ... d9e3be280e" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Geelong has had 2mm for the entire month according to the BOM site. Here in Laverton it's not much better, 3.6mm.
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