2-3 January - Hot

[I_Love_Storms]

Seems pretty clear now Friday and Saturday will be hot. Saturday looking very hot maybe 42-43. BOM always very slow to get on board as we saw with the heatwave last year. Expect them to upgrade temps as we get closer to Sat. Maybe not as much rain on the change as previously forecasted but something looks to be brewing next week in terms of rain and storms, models just struggling as they usually do this time of year.

[Wilko]

Gee I hope AccessG is incorrect as I am going camping next week

[Gordon]

Not used to heat and rain down here - usually one seems to exclude the other. Hoping the wetter and slightly 'less hot' models come off!

[stevco123]

Just looked at my records. The first 7 days of 2013 gave me the following max temps at home:

1 24.4
2 21.3
3 36.0
4 39.9
5 26.3
6 27.8
7 33.3

So looks like something similar (if not hotter) is brewing for 2015, and on similar dates too

[I_Love_Storms]

Yeah looks fairly similar, although probably hotter this year on two days. Yeah looks like some moisture on Saturday, depends how much as to how high the temp will get and the following rain at night/into Sunday. I'm pretty confident 40 will be cracked

[Wilko]

Do you think the moisture will continue to come down into next week with a low off W.A.?
Looks hot humid an thundery well into next week
Also looks like a potential cold front hooking up with the tonne of moisture late next week
I have a bad feeling for a campers

[stevco123]

BOM still going conservative on forecasts with 36 Friday and 38 Saturday.

I think that 40 is a bit out of reach depending on cloud cover, and also timing of the front.

[I_Love_Storms]

Adelaide 42 and 41 Friday and Saturday...latest gfs looks a tad cooler for Saturday but still around 40

[Jake Smethurst]

Still at home since Christmas. Friday is looking very hot, but to me, it seems as if the change might come through a little quicker on the Saturday. I agree the 40 for Saturday might be hard to reach if moisture and cloud are high enough. I'll look into it more tomorrow when I get back to Melbourne.

[droughtbreaker]

I would say this is a more typical summer 'heat spike' with a relatively moist thundery change and rain. With this setup there may be overcast conditions with mid level cloud but always hard to predict exactly when the cloud comes in, how high and if it is patchy or general.

With respect to fire risk, I'm also thankful for the good rainfall we've had here this month and also a relative shortage of temps over 30C. It's still fairly green in the immediate area around Mount Macedon and grassland is still only around 60% curing in the general area. Just 20-30km north and it's as dry as chips, and also throughout much of western and northern VIC generally.

There has been some very aggressive fuel reduction burning on the western side of Mount Macedon this season and the Macedon pine plantations have been extensively harvested this year for the first time since 1983 Ash Wednesday so that helps a fair bit as well I guess.

[adon]

Cracking day up here today! Warm but no wind. That's what we all want up in the mallee. No wind. Things get a bit dusty if a sheep farts up here!

Hoping that there can be some showers and storms with this spike coming but sounding unlikely for the NW but one can hope.

[I_Love_Storms]

I'm a bit sceptical about rain with very high heat. I may be naive but we had the heatwave last year with a fair bit of humidity but minimal rain... Seems it is hard to get a lot of rain if upper levels are warm even if there is a fair bit of moisture? Hope I'm wrong but from memory these hotter days ie 38-40 struggle to get late storms with a lot of rain - more common when temps are a bit lower ie 32-34 we will see though models def looking better. Hopefully th days are cooler than forecast they both look hot though. If we can get a few degrees lower than forecast may be more chance for follow up rain in the evenings and on the changes.

[droughtbreaker]

The surface heat is not a negative, if anything it actually increases the chance of storms where you have a decent front or trough coming through and sufficient moisture. Last summer and generally in recent summers saw massive upper highs which sat over us for weeks. Troughs were only surface based and very shallow (and we still got the odd shower or storm with a few mm on some of those days).

This system is a lot more significant, more upper level support and lower temps in the upper levels. Total-totals up as high as 58 in central VIC with Saturday's trough which indicates strong contrast between lower level temps and upper level temps. Also a much deeper moisture profile than anything we saw last year.

If you look through the historical weather records you will find many instances of heavy rain and storms following a very hot day. It used to happen more often than not in the 1980s and 1990s.

[I_Love_Storms]

Thanks for the clarification guys. GFS looks very hot again Sat as mentioned. Looking forward to next week looks like some more exciting weather!

[stevco123]

HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone.

I hope this year we are blessed with a normal summer, spectacular storms (with minimal damage), cold temperatures in winter with low level snowfalls, and a wet spring with good rains all year.

[Gordon]

I like that wish list steveco!

Hard to believe extreme heat looms tomorrow - a cool 19 C here with full cloud cover. Hopefully this heat event will be short & sharp. Charts from Saturday afternoon onwards looking promising for chances for useful rain.

As others have noted, after last summer we're not used to seeing proper rain after heat. As always, great to be getting insights from the experts.

[I_Love_Storms]

Bang EC 100mm for Rowville Thursday to Friday! Also GFS has about 50-100mm

[Skywalker]

Arrived back home yesterday after 5 days in Torquay. Really annoyed at the timing of this heat. It could of arrived a few days ago.

Beautiful morning on the bike this morning. Hit the road nice & early at 6am to avoid the sizzling conditions.

[I_Love_Storms]

I think today will crack 40. 850s to 23-24 with quite a moderate NW flow. Melbourne sounding for 5pm shows pretty dry air however some mid level cloud cover (which could cap temps a tad lower ie forecast of 39 - but without cloud I think temps could go as high as 41 today).

Latest GFS looks nasty for tomorrow, maybe up to 44 (worst case if there wasn't cloud) with 850s up to 27 and strong north westerlies, slightly moister airmass and a tad more cloud cover may cap temps a couple of degrees lower. I would be forecasting about 42.

[stevco123]

Or it could just end up being a plain old 30-33 degree day

Now that would be nice, although I certainly don't think this will happen today