Victoria: Sequence of spring fronts: 7-15 September

[I_Love_Storms]

Tuesday afternoon is looking interesting for potential storms. Something to keep an eye on.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Whens the rain.. ?

I need to MOW....

[Jake Smethurst]

Website and forum back up and running!

Will comment further on tomorrow's activity, but storm likelihood is good!

[Jake Smethurst]

Sure looks like the winds tonight will strengthen a little ahead of the front and trough due tomorrow. Speaking of tomorrow, and I don't think things look too bad. Areas of patchy rain will extend from the west and become more extensive over the northeast later in the day. Timing of the trough looks relatively good for central areas in-terms of thunderstorm development. Models certainly showing quite unstable conditions around that time with strong convergence and shear! Wouldn't be surprised to see some thunderstorms go up over central and eastern parts during the afternoon ... and also in the southwest at night with colder air. Rainfall wise looking like general 10-30mm, less in the west and northwest, much more in the northeast where heavier falls likely to develop at night.

Here is our thunderstorm forecast for tomorrow, and can be found here: http://theaustralianweatherforum.com/vi ... ecast.html

Victoria Thunderstorm Forecast
Thunderstorm Forecast - Day 1
Issued at 6:00pm Monday 8th September 2014

Discussion for Tuesday:
A front and trough will cross Victoria during Tuesday. The system is expected over the southwest during the morning, central parts during the mid to late afternoon and eastern districts at night. At this stage there does appear to be a significant risk for thunderstorm development, particularly over parts of central and eastern districts due to timing of the trough. There is also strong convergence and high wind shear, which means a risk of severe thunderstorms also through central parts of the state, where damaging winds and large hailstones are possible. A second risk area will be in the southwest and coastal parts at night, with cold-air thunderstorms possible (15% risk). The far northwest should remain reasonably stable.

[Didjman]

Wind here to 48klm/hr and building. Ten minute ave 23. Baro plummetting thru 1007.9. Going to Frankston tomorrow(have camera and trigger packed).
Peter

[aussiestormfreak]

Hey guys!!

Sorry for my prolonged absence, I haven't had much to post in recent months, but I do come here often to get more weather information but that chart that Jake put up REALLY grabbed my attention and I couldn't resist! I'm placing my bets on that chart for severe thunderstorms here in Melbourne tomorrow afternoon!

Very gusty weather at my end near the Dandenongs, and mild too with the temperature at around 18C and winds reaching up to around 35km/h.

[I_Love_Storms]

Looks on to me. EC has 20mm for Rowville tomorrow. Expect at least one storm tomorrow afternoon with heavy rain at the very least. Maybe a few lines will come through as the trough approaches with gusty winds. Should make for some good photos!

[Wilko]

Wind getting very squally. Nothing then really strong gust
Last one just clocked at 78km

[93ben]

Really windy in Templestowe atm. Haven't been on this site for a long time but when there's severe weather like this I get excited. Hopefully it's not too bad tomorrow since I work outdoors in the gardens at the freeway golf course.

[I_Love_Storms]

The temperature just jumped to 21c in the city!!

[Wilko]

Wind is going nuts in last Hour
At this rate there's going be some damage
TEMP on rise as well

[SC.]

Blowing a gale here. Got wind speeds up to 49km/h WS doesn't give me wind gusts.

[I_Love_Storms]

EC has halved the rain for Rowville this afternoon but still has about 10mm. Will just be a bit of luck with timing I think.

[Skywalker]

Think I qualified for next years tour de france with the ride into work this morning. That wind was right behind me for most of the trip in. I must of been doing at least 80 km/h.

Unfortunately no rain yet, need it after the damage this wind is causing to the plants.

[Dane]

Very Mild and windy last night, unfortunately very little rain so far, just 1mm here.
Hopefully we got some good showers maybe a storm this afternoon.

[cim85]

Wind starting to increase again here in West Gippy....gusting to 42.6kmh and temp sitting on a mild 17.2.....only 1.0mm rain thus far which is similar to the SE suburbs.

[I_Love_Storms]

Very deep low pressure centre south of Tassie at 963 linking into our trough! Think the radar will go a bit crazy this arvo

[aussiestormfreak]

Definitely a potential for storm development here in Melbourne! I can sense it! I hope I'm right!!

Crazy night with wind gusts to 48km/h, 1.1mm of rain, and a low of 14.2°C. It stayed around 18°C for most of the night. Currently 16°C.

Hope the trough can work its magic in the next 6 hours or so!!

[I_Love_Storms]

Definitely a potential for storm development here in Melbourne! I can sense it! I hope I'm right!!

Crazy night with wind gusts to 48km/h, 1.1mm of rain, and a low of 14.2°C. It stayed around 18°C for most of the night. Currently 16°C.

Hope the trough can work its magic in the next 6 hours or so!!

Going off in the bay now

[johnno]

Outdoor furniture was blown around the back garden last night and heard one crash-boom so something fell in the garden
Really feels like an El Niño front out there currently, with dry and mild air and gales. 0.6mm so far.

Today's looks promising, but point where development fires will be near Melbourne so hopefully to our west and not east. LI to drop into negative values mid arvo so some reasonable instability. Little front back in the bight will be the focus.

Do we need an El Nino for this? It's been this this way for the past 18 years this time of the Year this way except for 2010 and 2011 and perhaps to a certain extent last September which was wet but was still very warm and we had the gales before rapidly drying out October just seems to be the norm these days

Anyway hoping to get 5mm here but we shall see how it pans out.