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Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

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Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by I_Love_Storms »

Not much to really talk about for the next 7 days weather wise by the look of things. Weak front moving through Friday and overnight into Saturday, before looking to really starting to warm up from next Tuesday - if latest model runs prove correct. EC is throwing down some very hot air at the end of it's latest run. Next Thursday and Friday are looking very hot at this stage (potentially around 40c each day!). Still a very long way away, but shows the heat isn't far away either just sitting to our north!

After all the non-storm frustrations, we have luckily picked up a heap of rain to start December. Hopefully we can get a warmer moister air mass for one of these colder fronts to collide with over the next few weeks!
Last edited by I_Love_Storms on Mon Dec 16, 2013 12:26 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Dec 11 to ? - Mainly dry, warmer & potential heatwave

Post by Rivergirl »

Thanks for starting the new thread ILS. 40, not looking forward to that
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Re: Vic: Dec 11 to ?? - Mainly dry, warmer & potential heatw

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Thanks for starting this ILS.

Been keeping a close eye on this for some time, but it does appear likely to occur in my opinion. Models have been very firm on very hot conditions developing for the southeast of the continent for some time now. ACCESS and ECMWF have been very very closely aligned with the hottest of the conditions next Thursday and Friday, but GFS is also showing hot weather. Looks to be a milder change following this but very up in the air on how strong it will be and if it can wash away enough of the heat for Christmas ... something to watch. Unfortunately some of the models are also indicating some windy conditions to go along with the heat, especially the western half of Victoria, good thing we have had relatively good rainfall.
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Re: Vic: Dec 11 to ?? - Mainly dry, warmer & potential heatw

Post by Geoff »

EC +240hrs showing a cut-off low over us of tropical origin, so something to look out for, though none of the other models have it yet.
Mean sea level pressure, wind speed at 850 hPa-Optimized.jpg
Mean sea level pressure, wind speed at 850 hPa-Optimized.jpg (33.14 KiB) Viewed 9424 times
As for now, "mainly dry" would be great - if only! I'm going rapidly bankrupt with this rain! :(
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Re: Vic: Dec 11 to ?? - Mainly dry, warmer & potential heatw

Post by I_Love_Storms »

Well maybe I should have added, wet start! Because Cerberus has just at 11mm in the last 30 mins! It is about to bucket down here by the looks of the radar!
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Re: Vic: Dec 11 to ?? - Mainly dry, warmer & potential heatw

Post by Gordon »

Hard to believe there is heat on the horizon as we experience yet another cold (11 C max so far), grey and showery day. But the models certainly suggest it's on the horizon so I guess we'll wait and see.

It's against my nature to wish for hot dry weather but I hope you get to dry out at least a bit Geoff!
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Re: Vic: Dec 11 to ?? - Mainly dry, warmer & potential heatw

Post by Geoff »

Gordon wrote:It's against my nature to wish for hot dry weather but I hope you get to dry out at least a bit Geoff!
Thanks Gordon, but cool and dry is what I'd really like! :D
About to get hit by this big cell incoming!
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Re: Vic: Dec 11 to ?? - Mainly dry, warmer & potential heatw

Post by aussiestormfreak »

Really not looking forward to the heatwave... hope it doesn't hang around for too long, and the thought of strong winds with the heat is not good news either!! At present things are lush and green but if the heat persists for too long and/or comes too frequently this summer then I'd be getting really frightened. After the events of the 2008-2009 Bushfire Season I really cannot handle hot, dry weather anymore, I'd much rather steamy heat and humidity... :(

Edit: if that cut-off low of tropical original does come off as you suggested Geoff that would be good news, I really hope it (or a similar weather system such as a decent cold front) can flush out the heat, re-moisten the landscape, continue to boost Melbourne's water catchments, and hopefully, just HOPEFULLY bring in some severe thunderstorms.
Last edited by aussiestormfreak on Wed Dec 11, 2013 1:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Vic: Dec 11 to ?? - Mainly dry, warmer & potential heatw

Post by Geoff »

aussiestormfreak wrote:I really cannot handle hot, dry weather anymore, I'd much rather steamy heat and humidity
Sounds like a move to Fiji would do you good aussie!
Pouring down here now, 12.6c.
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Re: Vic: Dec 11 to ?? - Mainly dry, warmer & potential heatw

Post by aussiestormfreak »

Geoff » Wed Dec 11, 2013 1:02 pm wrote:
Geoff wrote:
aussiestormfreak wrote:I really cannot handle hot, dry weather anymore, I'd much rather steamy heat and humidity
Sounds like a move to Fiji would do you good aussie!
Pouring down here now, 12.6c.
Yes thanks Geoff... steam-bath humidity sounds a good deal better than 40c+ heat, low humidity and dew points, and high winds, especially since I'm near the Dandenong Ranges, one of the most high-risk bushfire areas around Melbourne! :(

Yep, some good showers coming through, a good day to stay indoors, loving this rain!! :D
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Re: Vic: Dec 11 to ?? - Mainly dry, warmer & potential heatw

Post by Dane »

Just had a fairly heavy shower here, 3mm's since 9am and just 15c.
Not looking forward to that hot weather later next week, hope it does not stay around that long.
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Re: Vic: Dec 11 to ?? - Mainly dry, warmer & potential heatw

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Kids Christmas Concert tonight.. Outdoors.. looking out my Windows, this is not what was predicted or requested..? WTF.
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Re: Vic: Dec 11 to ?? - Mainly dry, warmer & potential heatw

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Australis(Shell3155) » Wed Dec 11, 2013 2:02 pm wrote:
Australis(Shell3155) wrote:Kids Christmas Concert tonight.. Outdoors.. looking out my Windows, this is not what was predicted or requested..? WTF.
Shell, I would probably suggest a mostly dry evening. If there are any showers they'll be quite isolated and not as heavy as today. :)
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Re: Vic: Dec 11 to ?? - Mainly dry, warmer & potential heatw

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Thanks Jake, yes there has been some Sun.. :o and about time,
that many ppl saying they have lit their fires today,
well Mine has a massive pot with a xmas tree in front of it making it next to impossible.
And child would be totally disgusted if the chimney is hot for 24th dec..
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Re: Vic: Dec 11 to ?? - Mainly dry, warmer & potential heatw

Post by Geoff »

4mm today from showers which were quite heavy at times.
My current thoughts about the heat (I won't fall into the trap of calling it a heatwave) later in the week are that the colder than average waters to our south will produce substantial sea breezes each afternoon and negate the worst of the heat, keeping it well inland, until a cool change moves in on Friday.
Will be interesting to hear others thoughts! :D
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Re: Vic: Dec 11 to ?? - Mainly dry, warmer & potential heatw

Post by Gordon »

Geoff at this early stage looks to me like the models have backed off a little - perhaps one truly hot day (over 30) here next Thursday, then a cool change.

Probably a more prolonged hot spell north of the Divide, which is typical of course.
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Re: Vic: Dec 11 to ?? - Mainly dry, warmer & potential heatw

Post by I_Love_Storms »

Thursday still looks very hot at this early stage. Gfs has 850 at 25 over melbourne at 5pm. Can add up to 17c onto that if the conditions are right....but that is the absolute upper possibility. Anything could happen but at this stage would guess any where from 38 to 42. EC has cool change moving in fri...need to keep a close eye on this event
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Re: Vic: Dec 11 to ?? - Mainly dry, warmer & potential heatw

Post by aussiestormfreak »

7.4mm of rain from yesterday's showers, brings my monthly total to just over 50mm, not bad :)

Had a high of 21.6C at around 5pm today, which felt very pleasant when the sun came out during the afternoon! :)

Seriously not looking forward to the prospect of a hot spell or heatwave, whatever it may be called... extremely hot temperatures, high winds, low dew points, a cool change (good for relief from the extreme heat but no good if it doesn't bring decent rain), and perhaps dry thunderstorms with intense cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, along with dense vegetation, etc, etc, etc... even though things remain green for now, such dangerous summer weather makes me extremely fearful of bushfires!!! :( :( :( :( :firey:
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Re: Vic: Dec 11 to ?? - Mainly dry, warmer & potential heatw

Post by I_Love_Storms »

If anything, the very latest runs look a bit better in terms of bringing the heat back a little bit, but not too much. GFS still looks hot however EC looks to throw in a little more humidity for Thursday, which may cap temps a bit (would still be looking at around 37) and give a slight risk of thunderstorms. Will update when latest GFS released in next 30-40 mins.

Edit: Still looks very similar. GFS seems to be going a bit more the way of EC with a fair bit of instability around next Thursday, but it still looks extremely hot. I think the air will be pretty dry so can't see much in the way of precipitation but likely dry thunderstorms on the change over night into Friday. It doesn't look like a heatwave at this point, more like a heat spike day.
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Re: Vic: Dec 11 to ?? - Mainly dry & becoming hot

Post by Nick Sykes »

At this stage it looks like Thursday will be the very hot day in Melb with temp in the high 30's around 40 likely, Weds will also be hot near the mid 30's on my opionion.

Looks like a change overnight Thurs into Fri will cool things in the South, northern Vic could see quite an extended spell of heat.

Nick
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