Welcome New Members! We want to hear from you. Register, stop lurking and start posting!

Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Archived Weather Events since 2009.
If you have any valuable content to add to any locked thread, please PM board moderator.
G
Geoff
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2538
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 9:46 pm
Location: Olinda VIC (470m ASL)

Re: Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by Geoff »

Foggy and damp again this morning hard, to believe it's going to get hot later.

I've noticed Access in particular have this infuriating habit of putting the isobar readings slap bang on top of us so we can't make out any details. Always seems to be whenever there is a tricky situation going on too!
Grrrr! :cussing:

10-day BoM ACCESS model Friday.png
10-day BoM ACCESS model Friday.png (17.88 KiB) Viewed 8862 times
10-day BoM ACCESS model Saturday.png
10-day BoM ACCESS model Saturday.png (12.14 KiB) Viewed 8862 times
AWF Rainfall Details - Monthly rainfall stats. Please post your totals here at the end of each month, thank you
http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... &start=180
I
I_Love_Storms
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2812
Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2009 2:01 pm
Location: Hawthorn

Re: Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by I_Love_Storms »

My temperature forecast for next 2 days:

Thursday: 39
Friday: 34

No rain.

Saturday to Monday could be anywhere from 10-50mm...models still all over the place!
s
sparra
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 103
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:11 am
Location: Netherby, via Nhill

Re: Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by sparra »

Can't get a handle on this system....Norwegians downgraded to virtually no rain for us while weatherzone have upgraded to a possible flood ;)
Norwegians seem to be the most accurate for us so hoping they are more on the money......still harvesting so still don't want any rain.
J
James
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1059
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:10 pm
Location: Boronia

Re: Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by James »

I cant help but smile at BOM forecasting, they forecast a temperature/weather for some time, then on the morning of the day..change it it can hardly be called forecasting then, its "your best guess and if its not close change it on the day".

I've found the forecasts on here to be more accurate.

BOM have altered todays temp to 28

if they can change the forecast and temp on the day, kind of defeats the whole notion of the thing though...I keep telling people now "dont take any notice of what they forecast as it will be changed on the day"...and sure enough!
N
Nick Sykes
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 353
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:16 pm
Location: Gungahlin, ACT

Re: Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by Nick Sykes »

Hey All,

Very warm airmass now over Vic and only going to get warmer. Any locations inland today will be well into the 30's approaching 40. Coastal regions will be cooler with the seabreeze. Will be a big variation in Melbourne today, outer suburbs could get over 30, bayside closer to 20, depends on mixing and seabreeze, will be a very late max.

Adelaide is around 35C at 10.30am, so some really hot air coming this way.

Nick
j
johnno
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3449
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:49 am
Location: Ascot Vale

Re: Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by johnno »

James they have done it 2 nights in a row now the BOM they must be copying my forecasts on my JWC weather page *tounge and cheek* cos I changed mine yesterday morning early hrs of the morning to 23c then they did and last night I forecasted 28c for Melbourne now they have changed it this morning to exactly that as well hahaha could be even slightly lower today we shall see. it was/is never going to be a 30c day today, morning cloud factor seabreezes in afternoon light ene airstream it didn't seem right to me but in saying that should get to at least 26-27c maybe 28c in CBD that's the old site I am talking about. Olympic park may struggle to go over 25c today would not surprise me if it gets to 25c but only just, we may as well call "Olympic park" or the new "Melbourne site" a bay side suburb.
I
I_Love_Storms
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2812
Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2009 2:01 pm
Location: Hawthorn

Re: Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by I_Love_Storms »

Latest GFS is out. Thursday and Friday still look mainly unchanged. Saturday doesn't look too wet at this point. Sunday looking like the wet day. Monday also not too wet, maybe a bit in the morning. Warming up again for Christmas Day and Boxing Day, should be beautiful days.
j
johnno
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3449
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:49 am
Location: Ascot Vale

Re: Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by johnno »

Can someone explain to me why Rhyll which is 60ks south-south east of Melbourne at the bottom of Western port bay on a little island virtually on Bass straight with water surrounding the island every direction can be warmer than Olympic park on a day like today?

Sunday looking the wetter day at this stage.
C
Cass
Cumulus
Reactions:
Posts: 38
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:46 pm
Location: Raywood Victoria

Re: Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by Cass »

just received latest weather for Bendigo on cfa pager
temp 39
RH 14%
wind wnw 35-55
not looking to be a nice day
stay safe and please check those that may need help
D
Dane
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1659
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:51 am
Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
Contact:

Re: Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by Dane »

Only 23.4c today at Olympic Park 26.1c in the City. Was up to 31c at Coldstream so the sea breeze had an impact.
fairly humid today around Melbourne with Dp's currently ranging from 15c to 18c.
Much hotter and drier air just to our north though with temperatures near 40 and dp's below zero in the Mallee.
Unfortunatly this air will be over us tomorrow.
Not a big fan of very hot weather thinking of moving to the north coast of Tasmania or the south island of NZ
j
johnno
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3449
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:49 am
Location: Ascot Vale

Re: Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by johnno »

Yeah I went for 28c last night for Melbourne and mentioned this morning wouldn't surprise me if it only gets to 26/27c and Olympic park struggles to get to 25c which is pretty much exactly what has happened today.I still think high 30's Tomorrow for the the City however Avalon, Geelong and maybe Laverton may see it get to 40c and above
User avatar
Didjman
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2097
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Re: Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by Didjman »

Hope a seabreeze convergence zone developes along the sth side of divide tomorrow:D Will be right overhead here for any storms. Max of 29.4 today, sth breeze is lovely after the heat of Broadford today.
Peter
j
johnno
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3449
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:49 am
Location: Ascot Vale

Re: Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by johnno »

Northerlies be the dominant wind tomorrow Dijman especially up your way no seabreezes tomorrow, only seabreeze that may affect some part of Vic tomorrow will be the south west coast due to a shallow change with a weak trough down there, some models are trying to push it to Port phillip bay tomorrow evening early in the evening this shallow weak change hense why they have variable winds late in the day and evening kind of half commiting but not fully which I guess is why they are also sticking with the chance of a storm for Melbourne later and in the early evening a trigger perhaps anyway whether this very very weak change makes it to melb or not it will wash away and the trough and change will come through Melbourne late Friday morning or lunchtime at this stage.
User avatar
stratospear
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1261
Joined: Sat Dec 19, 2009 9:38 am
Location: Usually Bendigo

Re: Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by stratospear »

A bit toasty across the Nullarbor today: 46c at Red Rocks Point, 45c at Eucla :o

Hottest air doesn't hit the Mallee until late Friday according to GFS. Ensemble forecast suggests about 43c then.
d
droughtbreaker
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2844
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 7:50 pm
Location: Mount Macedon, VIC, 520m asl

Re: Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by droughtbreaker »

The cool bay and Bass Strait is having a big impact as I suspected it would. It has lead to morning cloud lingering into the early afternoon yesterday and then until around 10:30am this morning, and then after the cloud cleared sea breezes kicked in very rapidly and kept the temperature down lower than BOM could predict even after two goes at it. :D

The bay is around 2 degrees cooler than at the same time last year thanks to cooler than average weather since around mid October. Last summer the bay got so warm by early/mid Jan that we barely saw a seabreeze develop at all, and when it did it didn't lower the temperatures and this was one of the major factors in Melbourne and southern VIC recording one of the hottest summers ever.

Tomorrow will get hot very quickly tomorrow, however I'm still a little skeptical on these super high temps being thrown around. I'm not saying that it won't be 40C in Melbourne tomorrow but IMO this is at the upper end of what I would expect given what the models are saying. The air is not going to be super dry tomorrow nor the wind particularly gusty. Most models I am looking at are saying around 38C in Melbourne tomorrow and much cooler the further south you go, eg. just mid 20s on the southern Mornington Peninsula, which indicates that there will still be extensive sea breezes near the coast. (I remember being down at Apollo Bay one summer day when it was 20C max when Melbourne was 40C with strong northerlies so it does happen).

BOM seems to be going with a big Foehn wind effect off the ranges as is often the case in northerlies, however this is most pronounced when the air is dry and the northerlies are strong.

I am still saying 38C in Melbourne tomorrow but I'll probably be wrong as usual. :roll:

The weekend is looking fairly wet. Saturday is going to be a damp and cloudy day, probably misty up here and cool with the southerlies coming through. Sunday looks like another spike in temps up to high 20s in low lying areas with humidity and the trough deepening. GFS has high instability values, it should be stormy and wet but we will see.
J
Jake Smethurst
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3583
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2009 8:49 pm
Location: Cheltenham

Re: Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by Jake Smethurst »

I think there is a relatively good risk of a thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon and evening thanks to the convergence associated with the trough. I've seen storms fire with less. They'd be slow moving and a mix of wet and dry though.

Otherwise I'm still thinking a max of 40 degrees! Going to be a toasty one!

Change should come through around midday or early afternoon on Friday, but should still reach mid 30's or thereabouts. Another shower and storm risk that day, followed by areas of patchy rain on Saturday. I think the rain will mainly affect coastal areas though with just isolated showers in the north and maybe a storm or two in the northwest later. Sunday looks warm and humid with showers and thunderstorms tending to rain at times through parts! Will be interesting day!

Christmas looking lovely though, around 26 and mostly sunny with the potential for the heat to return after that.
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
I
I_Love_Storms
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 2812
Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2009 2:01 pm
Location: Hawthorn

Re: Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by I_Love_Storms »

I think we will get to 40 today, latest GFS looks a bit drier and has lowered instability. I don't think we will see a storm. Also pushing change through earlier Friday and thankfully doesn't look anywhere near as hot as a couple of days ago - probably looking at an early top of around 26-27.

Saturday to Monday still a bit up in the air. Should be firming now though as getting closer to the event. I feel we will have possible storms Sunday afternoon with a period of rain overnight. Anywhere from 10-30mm generally.
User avatar
Karl Lijnders
Tornadic Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 5771
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2009 11:17 pm
Location: Knoxfield, Victoria

Re: Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by Karl Lijnders »

A pretty hot day today with sunny skies. Chance of a thundery shower over the northern and eastern suburbs tonight and overnight with some mid level instabiltiy but rainfall less than 5mm.

Should top out at 40C today.

Weekend looks slow to start rainfall wise but it will start to move up from Bass Strait over the weekend, 20-40mm still likely for Melbourne from Sat-Mon with locally heavy falls around with thunderstorms on Sunday/Monday. That could be quite an active period.

Placement is key for this trough to produce.

Currently 31C and starting to get warm!
Former Owner - The Australian Weather Forum. Email me anytime - weatherman1000@hotmail.com
j
johnno
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3449
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:49 am
Location: Ascot Vale

Re: Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by johnno »

Interesting BOM have added seabreeze now into the Melb fcst for later today/this evening which is what I was saying yesterday there showing more of a commitment today that this very shallow change will reach Melbourne now at least the inner city and not just the bay.

Watch for some cloud over the next few hours may only be high cloud but can make the difference of getting to 40c or not in the CBD, I think we will still fall just short but it will be close.

I can't see much either today and tomorrow in terms of activity, patchy rain Saturday better as your closer to the coast especially sw coast and showers and thunderstorms sunday around the area so we may finally see a good day for storms in my book for the storm chasers out there.
Last edited by johnno on Thu Dec 19, 2013 11:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
N
Nick Sykes
Cumulonimbus
Reactions:
Posts: 353
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:16 pm
Location: Gungahlin, ACT

Re: Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

Post by Nick Sykes »

I swear that Avalon site is next to a heater, 37.7C already, will get over 40 there today. Bit of high cloud around but wont have much effect on the max temp, may take a degree or 2 off the max.

Looks like the change will be through early tomorrow so wont get too hot.

Sunday is looking interesting with a trough over Vic, could be a stormy day :)

Christmas Day is looking like a beautiful day, mid to high 20's :)

Nick
Locked