11th June onwards - Cut off low

[norwester]

Raining steadily up here in NW Vic and a few loud thunderclaps. Nice follow up to the rain of a couple of weeks ago. Marj, our weather forecasting goat, is hunkered down on the front verandah on the sunlounge - a good sign that it wont ease up anytime soon!

[Wilko]

Could be a really long thread this one
I think we will be praying for sunshine in a couple of weeks

[Geoff]

Still looking much the same this evening, with most of the rain concentrated over the Otways and moreso Gippsland where huge falls are predicted. But still a significant rain event for most of Vic.
Still a strong signal for a fairly major cold outbreak next week too.

[johnno]

EC has 50-70mm for most of Melbourne Geoff especially western and nw suburbs very significant this way if that comes off another month and half rainfall for some parts out here

[Karl Lijnders]

Quite a few storms on the leading edge of the rain band as it is moving in from the NW. 15-20mm showing up in pockets in the Mallee and Riverlands at the moment and in SW and W NSW.

Lots of cloud erupting in moist air.

I think we will see rain developing overnight and increasing during tomorrow in Melbourne. Widespread heavy falls developing overnight into Thursday and Thursday and Friday being quite wet through C and E areas.

Suspect lots of flooding in the east and big falls for the dams.

[johnno]

Yeah Thomson dam could get 200mm out of this it is in the sweet spot

[johnno]

Latest 06z GFS

http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/raincast.h ... 192:vic#sc" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Geoff]

Yes GFS certainly going gangbusters with this system. However, EC has only 12mm for Melbourne Wed-Friday (according to Norwegian). Johnno is there another link to EC rainfall charts other than Norwegian?

[johnno]

They have changed the format not sure why but look at the 6 hr blocks Geoff underneath and add that up thats the real figure its going for

http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victor ... /long.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Rhino]

Yeah the new EC format is a little strange to say the least, actually went to the hour by hour link on the left panel and added the total up myself, which is actually a pain in the clacker. At least with the old format you could just go to the long term link to see the totals forecast, don't know if this is permanent thing or just their wanting to get some feedback to see how this format goes. Anyway EC going for around 39mm until thursday in melb night which is the same amount it has forecast here, would think melbournes in more of a sweet spot than here given the setup?

Rhino.

[93ben]

Starting to get a bit worried and agreeing with Jake that we need to build an ark. GFS is showing massive figures for the Melbourne and Gippsland areas! A lot of flooding will probably occur. Where is all of this rain coming from? We like had a long dry period and now all of a sudden we're getting flooding rains.

[Jake Smethurst]

Latest models this morning still showing the heaviest of falls over the Gippsland area but Melbourne and the usual spots like the Otways will fair very well too. Falls in these regions between 50-100mm or locally higher for the sequence. Other parts of the state should receive a healthy drink too ... it's a nice statewide event!

Big chunk of rain currently to the north of Melbourne should start settling in from about 9/10am onwards. Going to be a wet wet day!

Already some healthy falls of 15-30mm in the north of the state.

[Jake Smethurst]

The Australian Weather Forum
ROAD WEATHER ALERT
Please use the BoM for all official weather warnings

The Australian Weather Forum would like to advise that moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to develop across the MELBOURNE region later this morning and persist for the majority of the day. This rainfall is likely to cause hazardous driving conditions for ALL suburbs and roads. Please drive safely.

The Australian Weather Forum
SEVERE WEATHER ADVISE
Please use the BoM for all official weather warnings

The Australian Weather Forum is urging residents of Victoria to be on alert during the next several days for both flash flooding and riverine flooding, thanks to a rain event and cut-off low pressure system that is already affecting the state's north.

The biggest of falls are likely about the Gippsland regions of the state, closely followed by the Melbourne area and the Otways and surrounding regions. In these areas, falls up to 100mm are likely for the sequence, with locally higher totals between 100-200mm.

Elsewhere across the state, the event will bring a healthy dose of rainfall, with general falls between 40-80mm, with locally higher totals to 100mm.

Falls between 15-35mm have already been observed across northwest and northern Victoria.

This type of rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding and riverine flooding if you remain under a constant stream of rainfall for an extended period of time.

[sparra]

Woke to find 40mm in our gauge Can't remember the last time we had that much overnight......on top of the 40mm we had 10 days ago I have one happy husband!!!

[Rhino]

Terrific sparra, Nhill is up to 57mm now so massive fall for up there and dare I say it will almost be a little too wet up there for a few days.

edit.....Nhill up to 62mm now, 7mm in 35 mins so solid rain alright........just wish we could see it on the radar .

Rhino.

[I_Love_Storms]

Latest GFS is interesting...would hope that this rain band alone would deliver 20mm plus to Melbourne area.

[Didjman]

4.2mm here to 9am in the BoM gauge - with more coming.
Peter

[Karl Lijnders]

Very good falls up and around the NW. 60mm in some spots, 40mm in the Swan Hill area and all of that heading south and east this afternoon.

Rain will increase over the southern side of the divide from this afternoon and locally heavy falls developing overnight. Models generally missed the heavy falls in the NW and N and so that bodes well for the rest of the state.

Still anticipate the Melbourne area sitting anywhere from 40-150mm from this event, a wide margin of rainfall but it is one of those very technical systems.

We will just continue to watch. But the east of the state should accummulate around 200-300mm from this event.

[Claude Cat]

Yes GFS certainly going gangbusters with this system. However, EC has only 12mm for Melbourne Wed-Friday (according to Norwegian). Johnno is there another link to EC rainfall charts other than Norwegian?

here

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/ ... 40912_36!/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[stratospear]

Far out - Nhill now up to 73 mm for this event and it's still going!
Their 9am reading of 65.6 mm smashes the previous June daily record of 44.5mm which occurred in 1906!