Already cold here, winter has been turned on like a switch.
0.3C minimum overnight followed by 9.3C maximum. Down below 3C currently. Freezing my proverbials off basically.
I went for a drive to Yan Yean res and back today. It's looking an absolute picture right through there. Nothing but emerald green for most of the way. The area around Whittlesea and also Darraweit Guim/Wallan is looking particularly photogenic atm. Also saw sheets of water lying around in some of the surrounding paddocks from Yan Yean.
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Can't for the life of me figure out why BOM seems to think there will be SWs with this system. GFS and EC firmly set on SE flow as the cut off heads south east. GFS and EC actually look very similar in terms of the positioning of the low and also the high to the south of it, however EC has three times the rain up here on the west central ranges.
EC with 66mm here for Wednesday through Friday and closer to 80mm for Bullengarook. The heaviest rain coincides with the winds turning SE with the convergence on the west side of the low. We almost always get soaked here with such a setup and Bullengarook usually gets about 30% more rain than here so it all checks out to me.
Initially there will be big falls on and north of the ranges but if the low follows the path and pattern that the models are suggesting the subsequent rain will favour the usual suspects in SE flow, i.e west central ranges, South Gippsland to the Dandenongs, the Otways and East Gippsland. We could be looking at some minor flooding issues if this comes off, especially in the Maribyrnong catchment, Gippsland and some northern VIC catchments as well.
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Also one to watch is the potential scenario following the next high late in the 10 day model outlook period. Looks like a surging LWT on the cards with both GFS and EC keen on it in the latest model runs. Looks like an ultra stubborn pattern as well. Latest forecasts for SAM showing a sudden dive into deep negative territory over the next 10-14 days so there are compelling signs that this could come off.
Expect serious cold and showery weather for several days if it does, and yes, even low level snow ( if you believe it can still happen
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