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11th June onwards - Cut off low

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Rivergirl
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11th June onwards - Cut off low

Post by Rivergirl »

Johnno here is the separate thread. Can you please let me know what it should be called. Thanks Robyn
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Re: 11th June onwards - Possible cold front, rain ....

Post by Geoff »

You beat me to it Robyn! Still need another day or so to be sure it's going to happen, but does seem to be a good chance of a statewide rain event in the offing next Tuesday onwards for the rest of the week. We can fine tune the title nearer the time. :D
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Rivergirl
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Re: 11th June onwards - Possible cold front, rain ....

Post by Rivergirl »

Yes for sure Geoff. Seems to be a bit up in the air from what I can see, would be nice tho :)
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Re: 11th June onwards - Possible cold front, rain ....

Post by Geoff »

GFS 12z looks outrageous!
gfs.raincast.bsch.init-2013060712z.start-0.stop-192.vic.png
gfs.raincast.bsch.init-2013060712z.start-0.stop-192.vic.png (44.47 KiB) Viewed 10582 times
Other models all giving widespread rain but much less quantity.
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Re: 11th June onwards - Possible cold front, rain ....

Post by johnno »

Great work Robyn :) mabye cut off low instead of cold front but all good. Still up in the air this one most models push the rain east now into Gippsland and much less for other parts of the state cept GFS.
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Re: 11th June onwards - Cut off low

Post by Rivergirl »

Have done johnno. Let me know if you want it changed again closer to the time
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Re: 11th June onwards - Cut off low

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Definitely watching this one with interest ... GFS earlier gave me quite a shock with the totals it was originally showing. It has calmed down since. The event certainly has potential, but at this stage appears to be more of a NSW orientated low. Time will tell of course and watching the models closely.
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Re: 11th June onwards - Cut off low

Post by stratospear »

This morning's EC run is impressive - even for the Mallee & Northern Vic. Probably just about set up many grain crop farmers up for the season if it comes off :)
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Re: 11th June onwards - Cut off low

Post by Jake Smethurst »

The run by ECMWF that stratospear mentions is certainly eye-popping! Maybe we should think about building an ark? Nevertheless there is still some divergence between models on where exactly the cut-off will move and that will determine where the majority of rainfall will fall. Looking closely at models this afternoon and will be updating the AWF forecasts.
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stratospear
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Re: 11th June onwards - Cut off low

Post by stratospear »

EC this evening is still looking sweet. AXS-R has most of the rain in Western Vic. GFS keeps rain North and East. Looks cold later this week regardless.
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Re: 11th June onwards - Cut off low

Post by droughtbreaker »

Already cold here, winter has been turned on like a switch.
0.3C minimum overnight followed by 9.3C maximum. Down below 3C currently. Freezing my proverbials off basically.

I went for a drive to Yan Yean res and back today. It's looking an absolute picture right through there. Nothing but emerald green for most of the way. The area around Whittlesea and also Darraweit Guim/Wallan is looking particularly photogenic atm. Also saw sheets of water lying around in some of the surrounding paddocks from Yan Yean.

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Can't for the life of me figure out why BOM seems to think there will be SWs with this system. GFS and EC firmly set on SE flow as the cut off heads south east. GFS and EC actually look very similar in terms of the positioning of the low and also the high to the south of it, however EC has three times the rain up here on the west central ranges.

EC with 66mm here for Wednesday through Friday and closer to 80mm for Bullengarook. The heaviest rain coincides with the winds turning SE with the convergence on the west side of the low. We almost always get soaked here with such a setup and Bullengarook usually gets about 30% more rain than here so it all checks out to me.

Initially there will be big falls on and north of the ranges but if the low follows the path and pattern that the models are suggesting the subsequent rain will favour the usual suspects in SE flow, i.e west central ranges, South Gippsland to the Dandenongs, the Otways and East Gippsland. We could be looking at some minor flooding issues if this comes off, especially in the Maribyrnong catchment, Gippsland and some northern VIC catchments as well.

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Also one to watch is the potential scenario following the next high late in the 10 day model outlook period. Looks like a surging LWT on the cards with both GFS and EC keen on it in the latest model runs. Looks like an ultra stubborn pattern as well. Latest forecasts for SAM showing a sudden dive into deep negative territory over the next 10-14 days so there are compelling signs that this could come off.

Expect serious cold and showery weather for several days if it does, and yes, even low level snow ( if you believe it can still happen :roll: )
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Re: 11th June onwards - Cut off low

Post by johnno »

Surprised on how quiet it is in here today. EC still has good rainfall western side of Melbourne over the coming week with persistent s to se winds cold uppers unstable conditions right til at least Monday. Here is the rainfall outlook for Melton for the week.

http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victor ... /long.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Off the topic but models and longterm models are hinting at a major cold outbreak from the south west after this system passes through, theres been fair bit of discussion already about this on other forums.
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Re: 11th June onwards - Cut off low

Post by dry »

Me thinks many monthly June rainfall totals will be broken, possibly smashed by the end of the month
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Re: 11th June onwards - Cut off low

Post by Rhino »

Yep I'd say a lot of monthly avgs round the state will be blown out of the water over the coming 72 hrs, only need another 10mm here to reach it, OCF has around 20mm and EC 30mm so pretty confident. Latest GFS pushing big falls into the Otways now to. Sat loop looking good now around SA and the bight.

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Re: 11th June onwards - Cut off low

Post by Karl Lijnders »

Models are looking very good this morning with extended period of wet weather for most of the state over the coming week.

Scattered showers around VIC this morning mainly in C VIC. Should see that clear this morning with rain and thunderstorms developing over western and northern VIC later today. It is humid and mild out there so rainfall will be quite healthy if you get under a storm.

Widespread rain tomorrow developing with heavy falls over S and mountain VIC. I think there will be some thunderstorms over the north of the state near the low pressure circulation. Could be some flash flooding and local hail from those as well.

Thursday the rain will become extensive over C and E VIC with locally heavy falls continuing. Widespread showers back towards the west coast and scattered showers and thunderstorms clearing from the NW. Flooding is a certainty out over eastern VIC and possibly extending back into the Melbourne region.

Friday further rain with heavy falls over Gippsland and the rain in C VIC will tend back to showers later. Further flooding over Gippsland is likely. Scattered showers throughout, in the north during the afternoon with isolated thunderstorms about with colder air aloft.

Across the weekend, the weather could go two ways, one scenario is that we translate into a moist and unsettled easterly flow which is indicative of Feb/Mar patters or we go into a deep polar SSW flow behind the low with widespread showers and thunderstorms with low level snow possible. Either scenario will net further rainfall.

Wet few weeks coming and watch the records tumble. Melbourne needs to break through 117mm for the month to set a new record. At the moment we are sitting on 80mm.
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Re: 11th June onwards - Cut off low

Post by Thunderclap »

We are sitting on 44mm for the month so far that yr no forecast looks fantastic for out here. I've just checked the yr no forecast for melboune and more rain is predicted out here which checks out with the ealier gfs runs hopefully it comes off!
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Re: 11th June onwards - Cut off low

Post by I_Love_Storms »

The models are looking great!

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Re: 11th June onwards - Cut off low

Post by Rhino »

Have had 7mm here this morning, more steady/light rain than the showers forecast and been in a good spot locally, just a pain when I'm now stuck indoors when I have a poo load of work outside today :x.

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Re: 11th June onwards - Cut off low

Post by stratospear »

Northern Vic should get most of it's rain this evening/tomorrow morning as the first rainband swings around the Eastern side of the Low.
Southern Vic will cop it as the winds go onshore.

Looks like it might take a while for the cooler mid-levels to move in (i.e Friday), so could be frustrating for those who would like snow this week. Next week looks colder though, except that a Tasmanian rain shadow could cause daytime temps to stay above average...
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Re: 11th June onwards - Cut off low

Post by Nick Sykes »

Certainly looks like the potential for a significant event. The 12Z models have moved the low to a more favorable position for heavy rain in Vic, much closer to east Gippsland. Areas exposed to SE winds such as Gippsland and the Otways could get very heavy rain as a result, this type of ECL event can bring floods to these areas. Got some storms going up now to the north of Vic in NSW which should translate into a decent rainband later. Wet times ahead.

Nick
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