Latest 00z UK has 10-20mm in parts of the south with this front, latest 3 day 00z Access has 10-30mm in southern areas away from east Gippsland. Fair amount of moisture around so models have slightly upgraded the rainfall for southern areas with this front. Also possibilty of hail near the coast after the front Friday morning the air is cold enough for it.
I think its better we keep this cold front seperate from next weeks "possible event" moderators as there is dry weather inbetween these 2 systems so start another thread perhaps later in the week or weekend for the next possible event next week
OCF has had around 4mm here for a few days so it all helps and will keep things wet so we should get good runoff into local creeks with the next decent system. SW and sth vic should get some good accumulated falls over the next 48 hrs.
A bit of westerly action just scraping us tomorrow with the associated cold front. Models are increasing rainfall totals, should be pretty decent with some strong winds in the south as well.
It's starting to get a bit more wintery now. Only 14C in Melbourne today, Friday looks quite cold, and then several days in a row with low single figure minimums inland with some sub zero in the northeast. SST anomalies around the continent have gone from very warm to closer to average almost overnight with some large cool areas starting to emerge in the southern Indian, Pacific and even the Southern ocean is starting to trend cooler now. I would expect land temps to follow suit in coming weeks.
I'm certainly no expert on this, but do strong warm anomalies in the Southern ocean have any effect on the Antarctic Oscillation? Would the ocean temps trending back to normal get the westerlies surging again. I have no idea about this but it would be interesting to know. Highs are starting to move close to the normal winter position so if we can get the westerlies surging again it could get interesting for the rest of winter.
I think a reasonable burst of rain and wind overnight and tomorrow morning for southern areas. 10-25mm looks like a good bet about southern and mountain areas with a dusting of snow for the highlands (albeit washed away over the weekend).
Next week looking like a messy situation but perhaps becoming thundery.
Also the risk of a thunderstorm overnight and tomorrow with the change.
Anyone care to estimate an arrival time for the rain tonight? I have a tennis semi-final in the northern suburbs and we need to wrap it up tonight so it doesn't interrupt the golf trip planned for next week Thanks in advance
I was just having a look at the radar loop for the last 24hrs, and the cold front seems to have hardly moved in that time, but the last 4 hours it does finally seem to be getting a move on, and if anything it has intensified a little, though that may be due to increased radar coverage. Not going to reach Melbourne until the early hours I'd say, so should be a wet start to the day here at least.
There are some bizarre looking forecast charts being thrown out for next week, not least EC, which has the high pressure belt suddenly dropping down below Tassie. Just wierd!
Few falls of up to 30mm in the south west with this system, no model projected this except 3 day access coming close, Melbourne should get 10-20mm out of this, locally higher falls near the Dandenongs
Had 6mm here overnight so will keep things damp with hopefully another good system lining up mid next week , some healthy falls in the south so should be some good stream flows over the coming fortnight.
Had 18mm with the band of rain and local thunder this morning. NIce squall as it came through and not much of a drop in temp. Cold front has arrived now and dropped 8mm in quick time and sitting on 26mm for the event. Probably 1mm more in it and then a generally fine afternoon.
Place is an absolute washout with water.
This is what the season is going to be like IMO. Next week looking interesting and will wait for modelling to come out tonight but could be another decent event for inland areas initially then all of VIC into mid next week.
Moderators can we please seperate this thread and have a new thread for next week?? As these 2 systems are completly seperate, this system was for this morning for Today we now have 3 fine days inbetween before anything happens next week, next week should have its own serperate thread it deserves its own thread (If it happens)
Last edited by johnno on Fri Jun 07, 2013 12:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
About 25mm here from early morning rain and then heavy showers, takes our June total so far to 118mm!!!
A chilly 5c here now, but probably won't go much lower as the cold air sinks down off the hill to give the eastern suburbs down below a possible frost. Hoping to wake up to a sea of white fog down below, and clear blue skies up here.