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Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 24

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Rivergirl
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Re: Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 15

Post by Rivergirl »

Would be nice to get a little bit of rain on the weekend, even showers are good.
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Re: Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 15

Post by droughtbreaker »

Even a bit of sustained humidity would be nice after today's desert like conditions. 34C at home, pretty close to what the models and BOM were forecasting but the very dry air made it feel unpleasant, I much prefer moisture in the air on hot days.

The ingredients should be there for an extended thundery period around the 14th with actual widespread rainfall possible for the state depending on the specifics. Temperatures will be well above average but hopefully nothing too severe for any one day. It's a pretty typical February setup to be honest and we could still end up with a cool spell at the end of the month but for the most part it will be pretty warm.

The model outputs will definitely frustrate us over coming days as they are likely to jump on and off a lot because although the moisture and instability is there, a lot of it has to do with the location of the high and formation of troughs, and also what happens with the upper levels.
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Re: Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 15

Post by Gordon »

Pretty reasonable day up here: cold start, topped out at 32 C and now back to 20 C. Though only a few degrees cooler than those couple of hot January days, feels much milder possibly in part because shrinking daylight hours mean it's not as hot for as long each day (on average).

Out of interest, tomorrow is the 4 year anniversary of our hottest day: 44 C. Came on the back of a horror run 27 to 31 January 2009 - 36, 40, 41, 40 & 34 C. We had 2 mm for that January, 5 mm that February, and all that on the back of a 2008 that was 150 mm drier than 2012. So far, summer 2013 is looking quite good by comparison!
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Re: Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 15

Post by johnno »

Looks a touch more humid next week but nothing out of the ordinary, finally have 4-5 days of E/NE winds something we have lacked this Summer which is why were slightly more humid but still looks dry to me.
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Re: Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 15

Post by Nick Sykes »

Hey Guys

Quite a large variation in conditions across the state and in Melbourne today depending on where you are in relation to the trough and whether the NW winds have mixed down or not. For example the Southern suburbs of Melbourne are in the low to mid 20's while Coldstream has made it to the mid 30's, with a spread of temps inbetween depending how inland you are or if you have had a period of NW winds.

It does look like we will enter a period of easterly winds next week which should increase DP's. Whether we get any trigger to lift this moisture is uncertain, but lets hope.

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Re: Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 15

Post by stratospear »

Instability certainly looks to be ramping up this time next week. GFS is on-board with (unrealistic) big falls predicted between Griffith and Charlton, but EC is not interested.

Thursday next week looks like it could be quite volatile in Western Vic. And even if it doesn't rain, there appears to be no let up in a moist tropical airstream from the North East for days afterward.
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Re: Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 15

Post by droughtbreaker »

GFS has widespread instability and rainfall for an extended period from around Wednesday. EC not jumping on board at this stage although it all comes down to the difference between the two models in relation to the position of the high and whether troughs form or not. This is not a straightforward situation so anything that the models say now is an indication only. The fact that EC has next to nothing and GFS has high rainfall totals tells us that the potential is well and truly there but it is going to come down to specifics.

At the very least it is a huge swing in patterns with much of Australia expecting rainfall of some sort over the next week at least and also the central Aus 850T heat bank is eroding away purely thanks to the moisture injected over the continent. In that general pattern all it will take is a bit of an upper trough, or especially a LWT passage and we will get very wet. The longer the LWT stays away the more moisture will flood over us IMO setting us up for a big event. It is in stark contrast to January where the lack of monsoon meant the inland was extremely dry and hot and NW flow meant trouble.

BTW, the slight risk of a shower or storm over the ranges on Saturday (forecast just for the north and east of the state at this stage) and EC is still firm on a drizzly/showery morning on Sunday for on and south of the ranges with a moist atmosphere and southerly coming in off the bay.
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Re: Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 15

Post by droughtbreaker »

stratospear » Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:54 pm wrote:
stratospear wrote:Instability certainly looks to be ramping up this time next week. GFS is on-board with (unrealistic) big falls predicted between Griffith and Charlton, but EC is not interested.

Thursday next week looks like it could be quite volatile in Western Vic. And even if it doesn't rain, there appears to be no let up in a moist tropical airstream from the North East for days afterward.
It also has to be said that GFS does infinitely better in these sort of setups than EC does, especially when we are talking 6+ days out. Atm EC doesn't really have the synoptics for it to happen, i.e. stubborn high deflecting troughs but EC completely misses summer storm events/periods quite frequently whereas GFS rarely misses a beat. I've heard GFS referred to by some in the know on various forums by the alternative acronym 'Good forecaster of Storms',so it has a reputation for being the bet model to pick up thundery events.
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Re: Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 15

Post by mick »

Sunrise this morning revealed some instability moving to the east from me and very humid this arvo. Very pleasant now a gentle breeze off the bay.

It has been a long time since I had a flang. SDS is about to hit!
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Re: Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 15

Post by Rhino »

Gosh, just about blasted me beer all over the screen when I seen the lastest GFS run, :o where the hell did that come from and more to the point how long will it last :roll:. Will be nice if half forecast falls, don't want 100mm+, but way way into the distance. Does look OK for mid/late next week at the moment for at least a drop or two.

Rhino. :) :)
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Re: Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 15

Post by stratospear »

And 06Z GFS downgrades it, but still has 50mm for an area North of Bendigo...
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Re: Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 15

Post by johnno »

ACCESS also oboard with GFS synopitically looks very similar and has precip which means instability
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Re: Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 15

Post by droughtbreaker »

GFS 06z hardly downgrades it. It is a big upgrade from 00z as it has the instability and rainfall far more widespread than it did in the previous run. Having said this, it is more meaningful looking at the models from day to day rather than 6 hour runs but it is promising nonetheless.

It's still going to come down to specifics so I'm not going to get too excited yet but I seriously like what I'm seeing in terms of the general pattern.

On a side note, temps are going to run several degrees above average for an extended period thanks to the blocking pattern and minimums will be way up if we get the humidity that is expected so expect another big +ve anomaly tempwise for Feb. :(
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Re: Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 15

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

What day are we talking about. Next Sat..? I dont read the charts ? can someone pop a link to the chart plz..
Rhino its Feb fast whats with the Beers..
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Re: Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 15

Post by Rhino »

Yeah I know Shell, it's awful fasting on only beer........ :D :o

Rhino. :) :)
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Re: Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 15

Post by stratospear »

GFS chart for accumulated rainfall is here:
http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/raincast.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And surprise surprise in two model runs Northern Vic has gone from 50 mm+ to 0 mm. The positioning of the trough next week is everything - as the centre of high rainfall in subsequent GFS model runs has gone from Charlton, to Dingee, to Shepparton, and now North of Renmark :?

EC is still not interested.
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Re: Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 15

Post by Karl Lijnders »

It will be as per usual - isolated showers and thunderstorms across the ranges and in the east early next week, translating across the state and becoming scattered and possibly tending to rain later in the week. Looks like the pattern is jammed so can see the rain and storms persisting well beyond the outlook.

BTW this all ahead of the next monsoonal burst so happy times ahead for the country!

And look I was taken to task in the last thread about my predictions about it being hot over the next week or so which it has been, but thankfully there is rain. Shame I don't know it all LOL! Hopefully we can stamp out that attitude on this forum because really - there are options for that sort of behaviour - go to another site where you can find those people! :)

That is all :)
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Re: Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 15

Post by Supercellimpact »

yep that's the models for you, going from heaps of rain to 0mm. It might come back in later runs though.
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Re: Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 15

Post by Karl Lijnders »

If you take GFS over the past seven runs and paste them over one another, you will find a general smudge of rainfall of 10-50mm over wide areas of the state and in E SA, S NSW. There will be showers and thunderstorms - that is now a given and it will end with a bang which could also last some time.

I think now my earlier predictions of a hot and dry Feb will be replaced with a warm/sultry and mostly thundery one for the state!

Good times!
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Re: Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 15

Post by Rivergirl »

And look I was taken to task in the last thread about my predictions about it being hot over the next week or so which it has been, but thankfully there is rain. Shame I don't know it all LOL! Hopefully we can stamp out that attitude on this forum because really - there are options for that sort of behaviour - go to another site where you can find those people!
Well said Karl! Forecasts and predictions are a thankless job. You certainly don't need the aggravation as well.
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