Unsettled Weather - Showers and storms. Sep 16th - Sep 22nd

[johnno]

I'll keep this short looks like some unsettled more humid weather on the way then the weather we have had of late. Some showers and storm activity is possible on each days from Sunday (intially western parts) to Friday (as it clears out) with Tuesday and Thursday look like being the most active days at the moment. Activity can be expected in most areas but mostly Central, Gippsland, Eastern and ranges at this stage. I would Love to hear others thoughts?

[eegs]

Could be a week where we have a distinct change of weather pattstuff beyond the wintery stuff. Of note this morning is rain and cloud cover in south central WA. Hopefully something for those north of the divide.

[I_Love_Storms]

Looks a lot better for NSW at this point. There will be some instability down here tomorrow but not heaps. Maybe enough for some very isolated small stuff around Macedon Ranges, normal storm/convection areas out west and north.

Monday looks pretty decent - isolated convective showers and storms for most of the state IMO (mainly north of ranges though for any good stuff).



Tuesday looks much better. Whole state has a chance - should be a humid day with scattered storms - maybe some kind of line from west to east if we get lucky.



Wednesday doesn't look that good at this point. Thursday still have to wait on but looks like there is potential GFS showing instability above divide - main issue IMO would be seabreeze but still very far away so need to wait and see.

All in all looks like a very unsettled and unstable week that is a long time coming since last summer! Good to see some early humidity and instability - looks more like an October week on the models than a September week. let's hope it ramps up a bit during the next few runs

[johnno]

Any Storms that develop has a good chance of hail developing especially Monday & Tuesday quite cold air aloft. Steering will be fairly slow, generally light winds on the surface as well. Latest 3 day ACCESS is out and shows the instability with the cold air above.

[johnno]

By the way ILS that is last nights 9pm update from GFS, GFS hasn't updated since.

[I_Love_Storms]

By the way ILS that is last nights 9pm update from GFS, GFS hasn't updated since.

Thanks for pointing out. I didn't check - GFS has been a bit slow to update lately.

Looks like quite a lot of rain around according to ACCESS. Decent dumping on Friday if that is to come off!

[johnno]

Yes ACCESS long range looks good. Yeah not sure whats wrong with GFS at the moment but it only updates once a day at 06z run (around 9pm)

[Anthony Violi]

Yeah there are problems with GFs everywhere, not just NOMADS.

Could be a stormy week with this trough moving in and then being ridden North into the inland trough.

[I_Love_Storms]

Update up now. Looks better for rainfall. Thursday is looking good.

[johnno]

I just checked the storm potential and theres a chance in Melb and parts of Victoria Monday to Friday with Wednesday being the quietest day but wouldnt suprise me theres still some activity about.

Heres the rainfall 00z update

http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html?r ... hart_mode=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Karl Lijnders]

A tricky week of forecasting coming, looking unsettled but going to be taking it day by day at this time. Forecasts are updated on the main page for those interested.

I would assume looking at the moisture plume in WA and winds turning easterly over the coming week, cold uppers about and a developing inland trough, storms and rain will increase. Need everything to stall in the region to see big falls and a low form.

Some models indicating that will happen and some are not. I am thinking we are on the brink of another perfect storm type scenario with big rainfall possible in the region.

Storms look good but need the diurnal kick to get them going and tomorrow we should see some along the divide.

Hail is a risk over the coming few days so take care out there. Stones may be 1-2cm at elevation if the storms get going.

[Pane]

G'day

Not knowing the colors of the charts does that mean okay actually see some good falls this week?

We need an inch or so to keep the crops moving along and anymore than that will also prepare the rice ground nicely.

Cheers

[Geoff]

Hey Pane, your wishes could well come true in the coming week matey! Most of the rainfall progs have your area in the sweet spot for 25-50mm from rain/storms by this time next week, good luck!
Not sure what to expect here this week, could be huge, could be nothing, just going to have to trust to luck I think, we're never gauranteed rain here unless the wind is from the S/W.
I'm back from a brief S/E Queensland trip for my wife's mother's funeral, 28c and sunny up there, and obviously getting dry, though surprisingly still pretty green from rains earlier in the year.

[Karl Lijnders]

G'day

Not knowing the colors of the charts does that mean okay actually see some good falls this week?

We need an inch or so to keep the crops moving along and anymore than that will also prepare the rice ground nicely.

Cheers

Hello up there!!

I think you will end up with some rainfall this week, some frustration as it will be hit and miss a lot of the time, but a concentrated burst Tuesday, Thursday and Friday could see up to 25mm for you. If a low forms it could mean double or triple that.

Latest GFS maintaining similar rainfall.

[Rivergirl]

Geoff, I'm so sorry to hear about Jane's mother. Please give Jane our condolences, we are thinking of your family

[Geoff]

Thanks Robyn, yes poor Jane has had a shocking year, losing her sister, her mum, her uncle and a friend, just too much for one year!
On a happier note, we had our garden open today and it stayed fine and dry, if a bit cloudy, and everyone had a good time.

[Pane]

Gday

Thanks for the replys guys, I hope it comes off for us and other farmers elsewhere, we have good looking crops ATM with strong grain prices so it might just be the break we all want. After 3 years of good starts and then no finish rains in spring through the area followed by rain when the header starts some blokes are in the same position financially as they were in the grip of the drought, the difference being they just didn't invest the money back then in fert and seed where as lately they have poured money in only to find a below average crop with terrible prices.

I must also say its great to read all your posts, I can't contribute much but I'm starting to learn the lingo and how things work weather wise, I do watch each thread closely and when ones over I'm eager to learn about the next one.

Cheers

[Pane]

G'day

I'm driving back to jerilderie this morning up the goulburn valley and there's a strange feeling in the air and the clouds look interesting, I'd reckon if it were warmer storms would be on for sure

Cheers

[Jake Smethurst]

Just released the AWF thunderstorm forecast for today. Pretty tricky considering there are no real strong signatures for development, but there are a couple of things that I think causes it to be a marginal threat today. Would be looking at the western and central ranges for any thunderstorms today. Just for reference, the official BoM storm chart today suggests no activity.

I'll be re-evaluating the forecasts tonight for the next few days.

Otherwise it's 14 degrees here, mostly cloudy and dry at this point in time for home anyway.

[Karl Lijnders]

Yeah a tricky day with not much of a visual with 8/8 cloud cover. I think the showers will develop this afternoon and there is a weak steering flow so reasonable falls underneath them.

Beyond today I have no idea what to expect, models are just crazy! But hopefully some sense in tonight's run!