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Series of cut off lows/troughs 29th July- 9th August 2011

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typhoon29
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Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Post by typhoon29 »

Another warm day here in the city dubbed the coldest in the world. Overcast most of the day with a few sunny breaks. Will be fine overnight the rain won't get to here now until tomorrow around lunch. Storm risk is nearing zero too, damnit.
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Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Post by Lily »

A few teeny tiny drops of rain have just started here.
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Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Post by Geoff »

Lily wrote:Post by Lily » Thu Aug 04, 2011 6:29 pm
A few teeny tiny drops of rain have just started here.
A few BIG THUNDERY blobs have started here, where did that come from???
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Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Post by mick »

:bringiton: THUNDER? DID SOMEONE SAY THUNDER???
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Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Post by Petros »

Amazingly mild here today, 13.1 to 26.1C (havent looked at my records but I'm sure I've never seen this high a temp early August), the baro stuck around 1019 hPa for days now. So mild outside here (18C), but unlike Proteous, I've found a way to cope, beer and a steak sizzling on the BBQ!!! :D

Pity the rainband dosent look like it will make it this side of Melb. toninght.
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Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Post by Dc449 »

mick » Thu Aug 04, 2011 8:01 pm wrote:
mick wrote: :bringiton: THUNDER? DID SOMEONE SAY THUNDER???
You have thunder Mick?
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Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Post by Geoff »

Easy Mick, easy there! I only said thundery blobs! :hysteria:
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Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Post by mick »

Wow wind from the south, cloud from the north! Aw geeze Joffa, severe SDS here, I ready to jump on any bandwagon1
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Re: VIC - another ECL is a chance - Sat 6th-Mon 8th Aug 2011

Post by Petros »

OK, I'll give EC a go...... (getting quite excited out this way actually). Theres an ECL a-brewin'.
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Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Post by Lily »

mick » Thu Aug 04, 2011 7:01 pm wrote:
mick wrote: :bringiton: THUNDER? DID SOMEONE SAY THUNDER???
LMAO!!! Spot the storm deprived poster :laughing:

Actually, you're right Geoff, just after that post I took my daughter to choir and we were commenting on how big the "splats" the odd rain drops were on the windscreen. Not much in it though.
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Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Post by Anthony Violi »

Starting to look decidely thundery, though you would think most action re storms might be tomorrow with the interaction of the cold air. Still thinking 20mm generally for the system at least, heigher on the ranges and wherever the wrap around decides to park itself.

Then cooler and wet for the next 4 weeks generally.
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Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Post by Dc449 »

Good reminder of how close we are getting to the stormy period, hopefully we get a wicked storm season, storms with neat structure and no scud around. Seeing as im not 18 to storm chase, i have to sit and have storms come to me. Luckily i turn 18 later this year.
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Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Post by Pane »

G'day

Please tell me the rain is going to start tomorrow about 10 am, that would be great.

It looked like there was going to be a storm in the marsh all day but just didn't happen.

I'm working outside ATM and it's very still, strange considering the wind during the day.

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Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Well the oddity of the weather patterns continue, particularly with tonights 00z run of GFS, which continues to not want an ECL anymore, and seems to be more on it's original progs of the low to move through the Bight region tomorrow and Saturday, before moving closer to Victoria during Sunday and Monday, but gradually weakening. Its and interesting pattern, and I tend to agree with the GFS scenario currently - EC has weakened any ECL activity as well.

General expectations are for the trough in the west currently to continue to produce a generally stalled band of rain over the southwest, with only slow movement eastwards overnight and during tomorrow. Melbourne should see a little rain develop overnight before it starts to be more steady during tomorrow morning. Risk, low risk that is, of an isolated thunderstorm in the southwest tonight as well.

Its an overall rather complex pattern, so its hard to know whats going to happen. Best idea is to watch the satellite and radar, and look at the models for a one day advance, instead of the full 4 or so days.

As for here during today, we have had non-stop rain. Was light to begin with today, however its pretty moderate now. AWS says we have had 12mm since 9am, and there is plenty more on radar to come.
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Re: VIC - another ECL is a chance - Sat 6th-Mon 8th Aug 2011

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Its an interesting pattern Petros, GFS has gone off the ECL scenario this morning and holding tonight. So very variable expectations at the moment. Will be interesting to see what happens.
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Re: VIC - another ECL is a chance - Sat 6th-Mon 8th Aug 2011

Post by Lily »

Interesting to watch this one unfold, fingers crossed, Petros!
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Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Post by droughtbreaker »

Definitely a bizarre summer like pattern, and most of winter has been like this really with a notable lack of development in the westerly belt and larger than normal temperature variations between northerlies and southerlies alternating between notable cold spells and notable warm spells with not as much in between as in a normal winter.

What we are seeing now is really quite nuts IMHO, the pattern just refuses straight out to return to a normal zonal winter pattern. Any attempt at the westerly belt to return is thwarted in the model runs and we end up with phantom cutoff lows floating across us before the next massive slow moving high comes in.

We may get some half decent rain from the upcoming sequence but probably not as widespread as a decent run of cold fronts embedded in the westerlies would deliver to the state as is normal for this time of year. There will be places that get a lot and others that miss out.

The record breaking winter warmth was basically the result of this severely disordered (and freakish really) weather pattern and not necessarily due to greater heat in the tropics and inland per se. That heat is always around in the tropics and subtropics throughout winter, it was how it ended up down here that was the weird bit with that stationary LWT, very, very unusual to see a massive and strong LWT block off like that to our west. Usually in a Tasman block situation the LWT weakens out over time. WA got absolutely slammed as a result but we got excessive buildup of tropical warmth that ended up blasted over us.
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Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Post by crikey »

The record highest min for Melbourne in August was 16.2 deg C on the 20th 1885.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/s ... e&lc=86071" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Is the record taken for the airport or Melbourne central? ( actually Tullamarine airport wasn't operational in 1885). Where was the station located in 1885?
Was a recordfor highest min temp set for Melbourne last night?
The temps last night and tonight look close to that record?
Nice to know these high minimum temps in August occurred in an event over a hundred years ago when the pollution factor was less significant.
Makes the warm weather winter extreme this week , fit within the boundaries of Melbourne's past.
I would call it extreme normality. LOL :laughing:
Especially since Melbourne has become a great city since 1885 and produces a heating effect anomaly
I find that a little comforting. :|

There is a 3/4 jet air low ( n-shaped jet air with steep northern flow and then a steep curve southerly flow) as seen on the jet stream map).
That looks too well defined to vanish any day soon. Its a little to the west of Adelaide but alreadythen signs of that translating to a ground level low near Yorke/peninsula. Reckon the upper air is set up to assist in establishing an ECL once that upper low approaches the east coast.
Surely the chances of an ECL developing are very good?
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Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Post by Astronomer »

What a fizzer, the west got plenty, but Melbourne and east zippo. I look back at all the long range forecasts from BOM and none of them right. It was supposed to rain Tuesday, then it was Thursday evening, then it was Friday morning, now it's Friday afternoon.... Weatherzone says we will get 1 mm.

I think this system stumped them all.

No complaints though, I work outside and this weeks been great... Off to work today too.
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Re: Series of Cold Fronts/Trough 29th July- 5th August

Post by Karl Lijnders »

Not a fizzer yet. I think we will be sitting on some fairly meaty rainfall totals from mid to late weekend and a wet week next week. Things are delayed as little low pressure systems develop in the complex over W VIC pulling rain away from C areas. It means that things are largely delayed rather than over.

I suspect we will see a few showers and thunderstorms possible again today on the eastern fringe of the rainband as it travels across then a period of moderate rain tonight over C areas. 5-10mm looks fair. Tomorrow will be fairly convective with isolated showers tending scattered in the afternoon with local thunderstorms about the divide. Rain developing over the northeast and east on Saturday night before swinging back into C areas Sunday/Monday with heavy falls developing in the east.

All models are now gradually shifting weather back into VIC.
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