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Vic - Surface trough & Cut off low 19-25/3/11

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Petros
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Vic - Surface trough & Cut off low 19-25/3/11

Post by Petros »

The amazing sequence of moisture in central Aust looks to advect towards SE Aust into next weekend. Both AccG and GFS are playing with the possibility it will all end up in an ECL just off NSW - a long way out, but well into the time of the year for such an event.

Sitting here under a Lake Glenmaggie still 94% full after summer, and after 59mm rain over past 5 days, I am taking notice!
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Re: Vic - inland trough/possible ECL 19-25/3/11

Post by droughtbreaker »

EC indicating a big easterly dip forming by next weekend and then cutting off into an ECL just off the VIC coast. If this scenario comes off it will be huge, not just for Gippsland but west central ranges and the Otways as well.

For my area, I can easily see 50-100mm with the tropical dip scenario and then another 50-75mm behind it in convergent SE flow. If it comes off that's another record breaking month. It's a very long way out though and GFS looks a little different. Either way though we are being lined up by something big, as Johnno has predicted for several days now.
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Re: Vic - inland trough/possible ECL 19-25/3/11

Post by Karl Lijnders »

Looking more likely that this event is going to shift SE into our neck of the woods from the weekend into early next week with reasonable falls statewide and the potential for a heavy rain event out across Gippsland as a low pressure system forms off the E coast.

Certainly will feel like winter too if the prognostics come off with a deep southerly flow and much drier air filtering in behind this complex.

Should see rainfall averages achieved and exceeded further in some spots continuing the obvious trend of higher rainfall and cooler temps.
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Re: Vic - inland trough/possible ECL 19-25/3/11

Post by Monbulkian »

Needing this event to come off for my March rainfall predictions ;) but do not want the rain for the weekend as I am working at one of four possible outdoor events. Watching and waiting in anticipation/stress to see what happens :P
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Re: Vic - inland trough/possible ECL 19-25/3/11

Post by johnno »

I wonder if Petros has seen latest EC tonight?
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Re: Vic - inland trough/possible ECL 19-25/3/11

Post by johnno »

Love the models.. GFS keeps us in humid N winds until a major low crosses the state from the NW to the SE Wednesday then the low moves slowly SSW just East of Tasmania later in the week giving good rain statewide but especially Gippsland. EC has a upper trough/surface trough crossing us Monday we go from NE winds to Southerlies then a surface low bombs in response to the upper low & remains almost stationary just East of Victoria cos of the cold air above which would give Eastern Victoria especially Gippsland a belting with widespread heavy rain and gale force SE winds! ACCESS still having trouble connecting the moisture and the Upper trough Monday instead has rain and storms in NE Victoria and then develops a low in the Tasman sea with a strong to gale force and quite cold surge of SSW winds through Victoria Monday to Wednesday next week, NOGAPS Develops the low in the Bight then moves it East through Bass straight Monday then heads SE leaving us in showery and quite cold Gusty SW winds.

All implying a major system is on the way just a question of how it will pan out.
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Re: Vic - inland trough/possible ECL 19-25/3/11

Post by crikey »

The rotating low inland WA/NT border appears to have split into two cells :P ( re animated B & W satellite pic)
One heading quickly to the NWest WA coast( dangerous for cyclone development?
The other appears to be a bit south. I reckon the other will hang there and slowly get dissolved in the jetstream across southern Australia
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Re: Vic - inland trough/possible ECL 19-25/3/11

Post by stratospear »

Latest EC is interesting. An initial burst of heavy rain Sunday night into Monday (around 25mm), then ongoing showers for several days with a cradled low sitting in western Bass Strait sucking in large amounts of tropical moisture from the NE.
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Re: Vic - inland trough/possible ECL 19-25/3/11

Post by johnno »

Would anyone like EC with chips and a hamburger Tonight? Looks Juicy! If Norwedigan doesn't have at least 30mm with that set up there is something wrong with Norwedigan cos in these set ups it usually produces worthwhile/substantial falls across alot of the state.. EC crosses the low slowly across the state now while GFS heads it South
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Re: Vic - inland trough/possible ECL 19-25/3/11

Post by daviescr »

If that's any indication of where the models are going with this, NE Vic are in trouble!
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Re: Vic - inland trough/possible ECL 19-25/3/11

Post by Supercellimpact »

Spot on Johnno, EC has over 40mm's for here, looking good !!
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Re: Vic - inland trough/possible ECL 19-25/3/11

Post by Karl Lijnders »

Looking like a widespread protracted period of intially warm humid rainy weather with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the northwest on Saturday, spreading throughout on Sunday then tend to widespread rainflal across the new week. As a low winds up over the early part of next week we could see much colder, windier and further heavy rainfall in southern and eastern VIC. This could see some big falls develop over the catchments and with the position of the low pressure system, some spectacular falls are possible over a 4-7day stretch in E Central areas and Gippsland.

Initially the storms across the northwest and north over the weekend, could be rather spectacular.
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Re: Vic - inland trough/possible ECL 19-25/3/11

Post by Petros »

A bit behind weatherwise. Lots of issues at work with a scheduled shutdown very dependant on Japanese supervision due to start this weekend.

Plenty written about EC so I'll post GFS's guess at this stage......
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Re: Vic - inland trough/possible ECL 19-25/3/11

Post by Karl Lijnders »

My synopsis is based upon all models and a little bit of instinct.

That band that Petros has posted is somewhat thundery oriented, and could be a heavier band of rain on the upslide NE flow.
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Re: Vic - inland trough/possible ECL 19-25/3/11

Post by Gordon »

I think the latest Forecast Explorer (7 pm update) is lost in the Outback. No more than 5 mm anywhere in Vic on each of the next 7 days??? (Latest Water & Land gets serious on Sunday http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall ... &district=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;)
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Re: Vic - inland trough/possible ECL 19-25/3/11

Post by droughtbreaker »

The models are not agreeing. All we can be confident about atm is there will be a big weather event over most of the state from Sunday onwards. How many days this will last, where the heaviest falls will be, whether it will be thundery or not, if we will get a cold showery spell with the low moving over us and stalling (GFS atm) or if it will stay warm and muggy for days with probably more showery and stormy weather than solid rain periods (EC atm), it's all up in the air IMO.

This is an ever changing scenario we have and we probably won't know much until the day before it all starts.
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Re: Vic - inland trough/possible ECL 19-25/3/11

Post by crikey »

There is a lot of whiter cloud developing ( re: B & W satellite pic) ,as the cloud from the inland WA moves southward and meets the sea in the (southern ocean of WA) This is located within in a high pressure cell zone.
Is it possible to get rain and thunderstrorms in front of the trough within a high cell? ?
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Re: Vic - inland trough/possible ECL 19-25/3/11

Post by Twister »

Yeah still quite messy on the models, but on tonights run, most now have a low of sorts, just placement that is all over the place

What to give it another 36-48 hours before we really know whats going on

But looking very interesting and quite big if it all comes together.

Going to wait just a bit longer before get exticed

Also wonder will this be the season changer will patterns and temps change for the long run after this system

Time will tell

Looking Very wet in SA though
Now Living in Wet QLD
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Re: Vic - inland trough/possible ECL 19-25/3/11

Post by johnno »

Bar EC (at least its synoptic chart looks weak) Most models have cranked the low up this morning GFS going out on all guns like GFS does in these situtions, ACCESS now giving substantial falls in most parts of the state, JMA and CMC also onboard giving 50-100mm for Southern and Eastern areas as the cut off low winds up just East of us so interesting times ahead.
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Re: Vic - inland trough/possible ECL 19-25/3/11

Post by daviescr »

Yes indeed, GFS is OTT as is usual this far out. Although not beyond the realms of possibility to see maybe 50-60% of this:
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