Victoria: Trough, Heavy rain/storms - Feb 11-13th.

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Anthony Violi
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Sun Feb 06, 2011 12:02 pm

Time for an early heads up on the next system, later in the week most likely Friday and Saturday.

Most likely we are going to see another heavy rain event, with tropical moisture still sitting over the interior from TC Yasi. Added to the mix is a new area of development in the Indian Ocean likely to feed further moisture into the heat trough on the west coast.

Remarkably, the scenario that will play out could be a very similar in that the trajectory of the band of storms and subsequent heavy rain could be in the same spot, and this is most concerning. ACCESS and GFS have falls of 50-75mm , EC has totals in the 20-40mm bracket. The question is whether the trough will have the same intensity, and given the uppers today i think it will, in fact severe thunderstorms may be more likely as it may be a touch drier through the mids allowing rapid convection in clearer air.

Dewpoints are also yet again expected to be around 20 degrees and a bit more so there will heavy rainfall yet again. Its important people start to act now as being so soon after this flooding we may have problems.

Stay tuned to Jake and Johns weather forecast updates as i only expect this system to increase in intensity through the week, and laso official warning from the BOM.

I would geuss at 75 -100mm statewide at this stage for Central Vic, higher in the North and NE, Mallee also 50mm, and 25-50mm through the West and SW.
Last edited by Jake Smethurst on Sun Feb 06, 2011 2:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Just added Victoria to the thread title mate.
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HarleyB
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Sun Feb 06, 2011 12:24 pm

Theres no doubt this system looks much more promising for the SW. At this stage I also agree with AV, the Eastern Central will do the best, then followed by North Gippsland and North East. I suspect the Mallee will get a lot of rain out of this again.

Interesting system to watch, totals look random at this stage. I am expecting anywhere between 25-50mm here at this early stage, but we'll get a better idea by Tuesday or Wednesday when I will make a narrower prediction for Seymour.
schitzengiggles

Sun Feb 06, 2011 1:21 pm

It's going to be interesting to see how the BOM handles this. I think they were absolutely terrible in the event that just passed. Borderline negligent.
Jake Smethurst
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Sun Feb 06, 2011 2:42 pm

Nice write up Anthony.

I notice several of us have been watching later next week with keen interest but also with great concern in regards to further widespread flooding. It is going to be a particularly dangerous event in regards to that we are not getting any extended break of fine days. I'm with Ryan watching the BoM too, will be interesting how they play this one out.

Anthony basically sums the expected even up nicely. Remnants of Yasi being advected right over Victoria again and interacting with another slow moving trough of low pressure. Nearly all models on to this one nice and early but are upgrading rainfall totals with each run unfortunatley. It looks at this stage that the entire state will receive action this time; the southwest missed out on the previous event, however latest models are being very persistent at giving southwest regions heavy rainfall too.

Will have to watch the west of the state later Thurday with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon and evening. Bit to early to get on to the specifics for thunderstorms, but severe activity highly likely with the colder air through the mid and higher uppers. Will mean large hail is even more likely than the previous event. Friday also looks thundery before areas of heavy rain develop Friday into Saturday.

I will also say 50-100mm at this stage, but I think some 150mm falls likely. Defining the locations of expected highest rainfall will be easier when things get closer.

But as Anthony says ... Victorians prepare now!!
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WaterBaby
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Sun Feb 06, 2011 3:48 pm

will be stalking this thread with great interest for ourselves and the local community to try and help them prepare. I've got a horrible feeling about this time next week....
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Petros
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Sun Feb 06, 2011 7:04 pm

Jeez AV, nicely written (have you got a ghost writer!) - Ward Rooney couldnt have put it more succintly! :)

Seems that we all agree with you.

I see the high current S of WA atm (unusually strong for full summer at 1033 hPa), somehow "standing up" along the Aus E coast right up to circa Brissie by/during Thursday 10/2 in what normally would be a fire weather situation for Vic during Feb.

However from now till then, moist air will be drawn in over the tropics moistening the region of our northerly draw. This is supported by EC,GFS and Access.

Now not looking like an "Easterly Dip-like " situation that I thought it may have been this morning stated in the "next rain" thread, it now looks like an intersting pool of moist air situation when the Yasi remnants (which seem to me to surf the N side of the aforementioned high from S WA back to Vic) and the moist air from our N combine over Vic next Fri-Sun.

Not an avocate of exceptional rain for Vic (>60mm in Vic) for this system (yet - and by my track record will be wrong), but looks great for follow-up handy rain bang-smack centre in our hottest fire prone month.

Dont we just LOVE a summer La Nina event! (I done it again and havent acknowledged the hardship that many Vics are experiencing with the floods last 24 hrs - sorry).
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Petros
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Sun Feb 06, 2011 7:09 pm

Petros wrote:Jeez AV, nicely written (have you got a ghost writer!) - Ward Rooney couldnt have put it more succintly! :)

Seems that we all agree with you.

I see the high current S of WA atm (unusually strong for full summer at 1033 hPa), somehow "standing up" along the Aus E coast right up to circa Brissie by/during Thursday 10/2 in what normally would be a fire weather situation for Vic during Feb.

However from now till then, moist air will be drawn in over the tropics moistening the region of our northerly draw. This is supported by EC,GFS and Access.

Now not looking like an "Easterly Dip-like " situation that I thought it may have been this morning stated in the "next rain" thread, it now looks like an intersting pool of moist air situation when the Yasi remnants (which seem to me to surf the N side of the aforementioned high from S WA back to Vic) and the moist air from our N combine over Vic next Fri-Sun.

Not an avocate of exceptional rain for Vic (>60mm in Vic) for this system (yet - and by my track record will be wrong), but looks great for follow-up handy rain bang-smack centre in our hottest fire prone month.

[edit] - geez the thread titles bounce here, thought I'd posted in the wrong thread again!

Dont we just LOVE a summer La Nina event! (I done it again and havent acknowledged the hardship that many Vics are experiencing with the floods last 24 hrs - sorry).
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Anthony Violi
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Sun Feb 06, 2011 7:31 pm

Lol, no Petros its all mine brother, i am the ghost writer.

Latest EC as Johnno said earlier hints of a very prolonged period of unstable weather. Its looking like we initially could gt decent falls Fri into Saturday, but then after that an upper low forms and the whole western side of the country is smothered with very moist air. Spells disaster to me and storms galore. Also moisture advected in from Se QLD will only enhance a cut off, and if it does i think we usually see big falls coming from the NE. Last big upper low moving down from NSW was 1992 and we got 150mm.

So dangerous times.
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Twister
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Sun Feb 06, 2011 7:40 pm

Is looking interesting late week into the following week, but a bit to early i feel at this stage, the late week system wont be as wet as what we have seen but still some 50-70m falls about

Agree with WA looking very wet late week into the following week, as a country its going to be a WET 2 weeks

Again been on the phone and have seen a lot of Pics and the amount of Mildura that is flooded is beyond anything i have ever seen most of town had 180-220mm in just 24 hours street after street many ovals and lots of roads are all under water but you wouldn't know it as none of it has been on the news

The back and front room of my home was flooded and all the blocks around our home are under.
A few of our friends houses had a foot or more of water come through there house so a complete mess up that way

Wrong thread last bit sorry
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Gordon
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Mon Feb 07, 2011 4:30 pm

BOM forecast upgrade (some would say downgrade!) for much of the state for Friday, from 'a few showers' in this morning's forecast to 'rain' in this afternoon's forecast.
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Supercellimpact
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Mon Feb 07, 2011 4:51 pm

Weatherzone has 20-40mm down in it's lastest forecast, also BOM water and land rainfall forecast chart has 25mm to 50mm here, so looking to be a resonable event. Chane of storms Thursday and Friday and also from Thursday looking to be humid, Friday's dewpoints will be around 20 - 21 so it's going to be up there again. :D
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Meso
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Mon Feb 07, 2011 4:55 pm

Don't really care for anymore rain. Just want as many storms as possible before the season winds down.

Is bsch (stormcast) down for everyone else? Been really buggy lately.
Gordon
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Mon Feb 07, 2011 5:18 pm

Buggy for me too Meso, also for rainfall forecasts - not updating, only operating for certain dates or not accessible at all (like now). Glad it's not just me, a useful site.
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fireone
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Mon Feb 07, 2011 5:33 pm

Internal emergency services briefings this morning are saying widespread 30-50mm falls Friday and Saturday
but actual amounts could be modified during next 36 hours.

Humidity building from wednesday and northerlies developing.
FIREONE, Alexandra. { North Central } Vic.
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Petros
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Mon Feb 07, 2011 5:36 pm

GFS has hopped of it to a fair extent this arvo, basically provides 15mm rain right along Vic's N border W to E, not much else.
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stratospear
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Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:49 pm

Interestingly, latest EC gets all excited and forecasts 43mm for this neck of the woods on Friday. Melbourne also quite wet with 35mm forecast...

It's hard to believe that only 12 months ago this would have been a major weather event, today it's regarded as just nuisance rainfall for many...
Jake Smethurst
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Mon Feb 07, 2011 7:20 pm

Well latest models in terms fo the southwest have backed off once again. They have been up to 30mm for here, down to 5mm or nothing at all now. Seems as if the rainfall will follow similar projecetory (NW to SE movement) as the last event. Conditions here are drying off relatively quickly, particularly after our harvest and we need some rainfall to get some re-growth, but since the harvest, hardly anything. Paddocks are yellow and I was at one of the Otway national parks the other day ... still greenish but drying, even under the soil. So we need some substantial rainfall down here asap.

General downgrade overall since we first began this thread, with modest totals being thrown in around 30-50mm through most places. Should see some isolated thunderstorms about the state on Thursday, still hard to define where at this stage. Hopefully BSCH can fix itself before later in the week.

Latest models though are hinting at a statewide thundery outbreak from early/mid next week. Something to watch.
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Anthony Violi
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Mon Feb 07, 2011 7:53 pm

Yes, its doing its usual trick of relaxing the totals.

However, i think thats a reaction to dropping of the Dewpoints slightly. I have a hunch it will go back to original progs because The area through inland WA and SA are sitting on 21 degree DPs so its still a moisture laden country waiting to hook up with the trough, and also the tropical origin of it.

So still looks like heavy rain band with storms, interesting that the BOm have gone for isolated thunderstorms thursday with the increasing humidity.

And after that its very unstable and unsettled for as long as i can see..so at this stage our flood crisis wont be helped.

Jake, as for your area, the models are again pushing the ridge in like GFS was progging keeping the rain further East. This is the key for your area, i think they have this one wrong, and you will see rain.

BTW its almost hilarious to see "modest" totals of 30-50mm...3 years ago we would have partied for a week! How times change..
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aussiestormfreak
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Mon Feb 07, 2011 11:27 pm

I was wondering to myself this arvo if a thread might be started for this event, my instincts have proven correct! :D

We're still pretty much recovering from the last event, but already my eyes are scanning the weather forecasts with much interest. Hoping that this trough delievers some great summer thunderstorm action across Victoria later this week (with more storms to follow before the season ends). :)

More importantly than anything however, let's hope that this system does not cause further unnecessary heartache for all those still suffering from the effects of this season's severe rainfall events. So much devastation this spring and summer, just unbelievable! :o :(

Hopefully I can head up to Mount Dandenong on Thursday to snap some footage of any storms that threaten Melbourne - preferably with good sunshine so that the storm structure will be more easily visible.

Have a great week everyone! Fingers crossed and cameras ready! ;)
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Rivergirl
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Mon Feb 07, 2011 11:57 pm

Yes it's just unbelievable what has happened in Mildura Dean. I do hope this next front will be kind to Mildura. So sorry to hear about your parents, friends and your house. Thinking of you too Waterbaby
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