Victoria: Two fronts - November 4 to 7 2016

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hillybilly
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Victoria: Two fronts - November 4 to 7 2016

Post by hillybilly » Fri Nov 04, 2016 6:09 am

Couple of warm days followed by fronts in the coming period. The fronts have quite marked temperatures drops but lack decent tropical infeeds so rain will be limited.

Today sees 30s across the north, and mid to high 20s in the south. Sunday and early Monday also warm(er).

Unfortunately, minimal chance of storms with today's system, but perhaps a chance on Monday.

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Re: Two fronts: November 4 to 7

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Nov 04, 2016 7:17 am

A balmy 5 degree start here today, hoping for 25 by 3pm with a bit of a breeze.

WA around the Kimberley and Pilbara is mid 40's from tomorrow for about 5 days...... Then the heat creeps towards the red centre.

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Re: Two fronts: November 4 to 7

Post by Skywalker » Fri Nov 04, 2016 3:45 pm

Might be time to dust off the sprinkler in this neck of the woods. We haven't had anything substantial rain wise for 2 weeks now. The most we have had has been the 1-2mm on cup day.
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Re: Two fronts: November 4 to 7

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Nov 04, 2016 4:04 pm

Same here Skywalker..... Seems like we are going from flood to bushfires within a couple of months if it doesn't rain soon.

The Mallee is nudging 33 degrees and Melbourne is having a late run at 30. Kyneton is 26.4 which gives a range of 21 degrees for the day. Winds up around 70 km/h around Port Phil Bay and 80 on the west coast.

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Re: Two fronts: November 4 to 7

Post by Rhino » Fri Nov 04, 2016 5:05 pm

Someone has certainly turned the tap off, actually had the sprinklers on the back lawn the other day, nothing substantial is going to come from the sky soon by the looks and with these winds the ground is drying out quick around here. Can't believe just over a month ago we were worrying about flooding. Going to be a great summer with all this growth around unless we get something decent soon and the temps are only going to go up from now :( :?.

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Re: Two fronts: November 4 to 7

Post by hillybilly » Fri Nov 04, 2016 8:34 pm

Glourious day here today. 23C with moderate wind, but not too bad. We've sneaked nearly 70mm in the last two weeks so things look really good, but yep noticing not far off the mountain that it's started to dry out fast. Been some really dry air masses and lots of wind which really saps the moisture. We've switched from a strong negative IOD to a strongly negative SAM (which tends to dry out OZ in November by cutting off tropical moisture). Been well picked by the models (btw).

Weak band of showers coming up for overnight.. thinking maybe 5mm here, but most areas will get little or none. Mondays system looks a bit better.

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Re: Two fronts: November 4 to 7

Post by hillybilly » Sat Nov 05, 2016 7:18 am

Wow... zilch here overnight. Rare to get a strong front in early November and get zilch rainfall :roll:

Might sneak a shower today, but currently all towards Bass Strait.

Monday looks a bit better for rain, but not a lot in it on the current runs... maybe 5 to 10mm.

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Re: Two fronts: November 4 to 7

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Nov 05, 2016 7:27 am

A lovely gusty south westerly 6 degrees (2 degrees wind chill) start here this morning. Nothing registered in the gauge. Not expecting too much today other than a cold strong wind. Not seeing too much going on up here for the next 6 days.

Looks like a cut off low next weekend in SE OZ but models still very wobbly.....

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Re: Two fronts: November 4 to 7

Post by Geoff » Sat Nov 05, 2016 8:32 am

Looks like a pretty wet morning down Pakenham/Warragul way with winds off Bass Strait, but nothing getting past the Otways for the Melbourne area. Bay temps are around 15C currently, so it will be interesting to see if anything gets going off the bay today, marginal at best I'd say.
(Edit; ...and 15 minutes later we're getting our first moderate shower off the Bay).
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Re: Two fronts: November 4 to 7

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:35 am

Certainly breezy accompanied with a some light showers down south.

Just had a look at the stats for October from my AWS - daily temp average 5 degrees less than October 2015 and 2.1 degrees less than the 100 year average. Max temps were 8 degrees less than Oct 2015. That is a wild 12 month swing. :sccary:

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Re: Two fronts: November 4 to 7

Post by Skywalker » Sat Nov 05, 2016 8:02 pm

Had a few brief showers push through while travelling through Pakenham & beyond on our way down to the island today. Been fairly windy again for something different. :roll:

I'll give it a week at the most and we will have to start watering the gardens back out in the west.
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Re: Two fronts: November 4 to 7

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Nov 05, 2016 8:52 pm

Inched up to 14 degrees today...... Wind chill under 10 for most of it. A little bit different in the Kimberley at West Roebuck sitting at 46.2 a few hours ago

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Re: Two fronts: November 4 to 7

Post by hillybilly » Sun Nov 06, 2016 7:15 am

1mm in the end. Progs a week out had 10 to 20mm :?

They have now lost tomorrow's rain, so hopefully they are wrong and we get some :P

Amazing how the decline of the IOD and SAM switch had just turned off the tap. Hoping this ain't the pattern for summer (the years is currently running similar to 1996 if you like analogues).

Btw looks like a few cms of snow at Buller this morning. Probably similar at Baw Baw. Shows it was a strong front, but moisture turned off.

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Re: Two fronts: November 4 to 7

Post by JasmineStorm » Sun Nov 06, 2016 7:33 pm

Another windy showery ugly front about to arrive. Severe weather warning for us again for wind.....I'm going to write complaint to mother nature soon about this wind :pityparty:

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Re: Two fronts: November 4 to 7

Post by Dane » Mon Nov 07, 2016 3:56 pm

Had 2.4mm's with that brief rainband, suns out now but temp is just 16.1 after reaching 25.8c earlier.

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Re: Two fronts: November 4 to 7

Post by Onetahuti » Mon Nov 07, 2016 4:44 pm

Current forecast for tomorrow from BOM,

Slight (20%) chance of drizzle in the early morning about the outer eastern and northern suburbs. Mostly sunny day. Light winds tending south to southwesterly and increasing to 15 to 250 km/h in the afternoon.

Think it just might be a typo. :D

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Re: Two fronts: November 4 to 7

Post by hillybilly » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:17 pm

1.6mm for that band... so a pitiful 2.4mm for the thread. Um... feels like we've gone from feast to famine with the rain.

Steady warmup now ahead of the next system for the weekend. That looks productive, but I don't dare start the thread as I don't want to jinx it :roll:

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Re: Two fronts: November 4 to 7

Post by Geoff » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:34 pm

hillybilly wrote:Steady warmup now ahead of the next system for the weekend. That looks productive, but I don't dare start the thread as I don't want to jinx it
Not to worry, JasmineStorm has already got the thread up and running for the weekend.
1.5mm here from that decaying rainband, the drop in temperature was the most notable feature, and the drop off of the wind thankfully.
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