Victoria: Early October 2017 - Low Pressure

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Harley34
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Victoria: Early October 2017 - Low Pressure

Post by Harley34 » Sun Oct 01, 2017 6:25 am

Looks to be a decent system for this upcoming Thursday. East Coast of Aus will do well earlier this week and VIC's turn will come later in the week. Storms look a good chance. Thoughts?

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Re: Early October Low Pressure '17

Post by hillybilly » Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:53 pm

Latest runs are a bit messy. EC, GFS and CMC tending to slide the low south of Victoria, then putting us in a shower swly. A second low then develops in the Tasman Sea. Rain doesn't look great at this stake, but could increase quickly if the low edges north.

Not entirely confident at this stage.

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Re: Early October Low Pressure '17

Post by Tassiedave » Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:29 pm

Maximum temperatures in Tasmania today included St Helens 22.8, Friendly Beaches 21.1, Hobart 20.0, Launceston 18.6, Devonport 18.1
The ACCESS model has good prospects for rain in North East Tasmania on Saturday. GFS is not so good.

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Re: Early October Low Pressure '17

Post by Sean » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:34 am

"Rain" has become "a little rain" in the BOM forecast - not a good sign..

Meanwhile, the drying out is ramping up.

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Re: Early October Low Pressure '17

Post by hillybilly » Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:02 am

Progs not much changes. Low on track, but looks like it will tap little moisture so the northerly component will be mostly dry. The southerly component looks showery, but mostly limited to southern parts. This pattern has repeated over and over the past couple of months.

The Dandenongs and Gippsland could do OK, but otherwise doesn't really look that good :(

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Re: Early October Low Pressure '17

Post by HarleyB » Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:05 am

Been away on a 13,000km roadtrip for the past 3 weeks, ironic that I go up north to get some heat and we break our all time September heat record while I'm away :P Some impressive diurnal variation today, down to 1 degree here overnight, and it's currently 15 degrees on the way to 23 this afternoon.

Btw, since I last updated our nights below 0 count on September 1, we've had 5 more, bringing us up to 39 in total for this calendar year. That's surely gotta be getting close to some kind of record for this area.

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Re: Early October Low Pressure '17

Post by hillybilly » Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:44 am

Cripes Harley, I'm thinking my 5,000km trips a big one :o Unlike most people I know I enjoy long drives (well apart from the road works and speed cameras all the way up the M1 which could fry your licence and bankrupt you were it not for cruise control :? ).

Progs still similar. Decent looking low but moisture ahead of it is lacking. Be little to no rain ahead of the southerly part. Progs dropping locally 10-20mm, but mostly only a couple of mms. Hoping we get a decent fall in FC as its drying out quickly which is not good for the summer ahead.

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Re: Early October Low Pressure '17

Post by hillybilly » Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:01 am

Lots of virga on the radar but not much rain. Not expecting much today - be surprised if we score a single mm. As always, hope to be proved wrong :roll:

A few showers tomorrow morning, but mainly affecting southern areas east of Melbourne.

Turning into a longer dry spell with it nealy three weeks since the last decent fall.

Sunday's system does look somewhat better, with decent falls showing up for eastern areas. Could be quite unstable, with moisture over the inland potentially lining us up.

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Re: Early October Low Pressure '17

Post by Dane » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:11 am

Pretty mild and overcast at the moment. Been a few spits but as DJ said not expecting much today.
I wonder when we will get the Laverton radar back, says early October but knowing the BOM
we will be lucky to have it back before the end of the month. :x

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Re: Early October Low Pressure '17

Post by Gordon » Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:22 am

Yes hurry up please. Hating what is effectively a 'blind' Broadmeadows radar for us - hard to have an outdoor weather-dependant job and no decent radar - back to the 1980s :(

Absolute nonsense that it's 'almost as good' using Meteye and satellite - a very urban-centric take, to put it politely!

Meanwhile, we've had a few mm from a band of steady rain this morning. Away from the gauge so can't give a precise figure.

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Re: Early October Low Pressure '17

Post by hillybilly » Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:13 pm

Just shy of 2mm in FC at our place this morning. Double what I expected.

Decent area of showers coming up on the west coast of Tasmania ATM which should be with us overnight. Should see a few mms for areas east of Melbourne.

System for Sunday looking ok. Still fear a downgrade :? But currently looks like quite a decent thundery event.

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Re: Early October Low Pressure '17

Post by Wilko » Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:00 pm

Nice and wet for last hour or two
Hopefully adding up

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Re: Early October Low Pressure '17

Post by Skywalker » Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:11 pm

Dry as a bone out here in the western desert with nothing except more bloody wind! :cussing:

More sprinkler watering coming up. :roll:
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.

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Re: Early October Low Pressure '17

Post by hillybilly » Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:35 am

Just shy of 20mm in the gauge this morning. Very very welcome. Been a long time since we had a decent fall, and was starting to dry out.

Hoping to back it up with another decent fall on Sunday.

System really split the city and central ares, with zero or nearly so for areas west and north of the CBD and ok falls for areas south and east.

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Re: Early October Low Pressure '17

Post by Dane » Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:44 am

As DJ said outer eastern and The Dandenongs did well overnight but here in Cranbourne
we missed out with just 2.2mm's in the gauge overnight.
Have only received 11mm's in the last 20 days at my place.
Hope that system on Sunday delivers,

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Re: Early October Low Pressure '17

Post by Gordon » Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:18 am

4mm for us to 9am, wintery cold again; just 6C now.

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Re: Early October Low Pressure '17

Post by Wilko » Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:39 am

Better late than never
Picked up 6mm Thursday night
Happy with that
It's been very dry in our neck of the woods for 6 months now
When I get a moment I will totally It all up

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