VIC - Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

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StratoBendigo
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by StratoBendigo » Fri May 19, 2017 4:14 pm

EC wasn't too far off the mark this morning in comparison with the other forecast models. A fine line between deluge and flop really. Ie. 38mm in St Arnaud and just 6mm down the road in Maryborough...

Anyway, some isolated cells popping up along the Murray River to our North and out near Charlton. A surprise in store this evening to salvage something?

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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri May 19, 2017 5:29 pm

StratoBendigo wrote:
Fri May 19, 2017 4:14 pm
EC wasn't too far off the mark this morning in comparison with the other forecast models. A fine line between deluge and flop really. Ie. 38mm in St Arnaud and just 6mm down the road in Maryborough...

Anyway, some isolated cells popping up along the Murray River to our North and out near Charlton. A surprise in store this evening to salvage something?
The Wimmera cashed in before the dry air spoiled the party. There is a lot less moisture available tonight, so I think the best we can hope for is a good batch of showers but the widespread rain is goneski IMO. It's certainly been a lean May up here and many other spots....

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hillybilly
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by hillybilly » Fri May 19, 2017 5:30 pm

Scored 0.5mm in FC this arvo :rolleyes: Pretty much nailed by CMC and ACCESS-R which had dribbles at best south of the divide.

Tending to think the models did pretty well, perhaps except for north central with the areas near Bendigo east missing out. Southern areas always looked iffy, with the rainband forecast to collapse near the divide or just south. In the end happened a little earlier than expected.

Shaping up as a pretty ordinary May now for most of Vic and really mild. Guess it was too much to ask for back to back good months of rainfall in autumn given we don't really get proper autumn fronts anymore :?

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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by StratoBendigo » Fri May 19, 2017 8:15 pm

Had a few rain showers come through this evening. About 9mm for whole event thus far and maybe a few more in it.

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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by Wilko » Fri May 19, 2017 11:30 pm

Some development up north heading to central areas looks quite positive for some sparks tonight or early tomorrow morning

Adam37
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by Adam37 » Fri May 19, 2017 11:57 pm

Those showers to the north have made it over the ranges and i can hear the rain on the roof
here in Bacchus Marsh.

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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat May 20, 2017 6:12 am

The constant stream of heavy showers between 9pm and 2am , got things back on track here. 21mm for the thread :) 27mm for the month. Ashbourne just south of here had 32mm. The funny thing is that all the models and the BoM forecast re-adjusted yesterday afternoon predicting only a couple of mm for last night :D

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hillybilly
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by hillybilly » Sat May 20, 2017 7:20 am

Zero overnight and expecting no more today. Synoptics no good here... got subsidence aloft and rainshowed as well. Shocker for central areas with good falls in all directions but basically zilch in the middle :x

Guess almost time for a new thread for the middling fronts which will clip us next week.

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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by Tassiedave » Sat May 20, 2017 9:02 am

Rainfals in Tasmania since 9 am yesterday - mainly since 9 pm, Flinders Island 70.6 mm, Smithton 52 mm, Cape Grim 38 mm, Wynyard 26 mm, Sheffield 23 mm, Devonport 22 mm, Upper Esk 13 mm, Launceston 0.6 mm, Hobart 0 mm. More to come, hoping for more in the central north, disappointing so far.

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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by snowfall » Sat May 20, 2017 9:28 am

Just 1.4mm here. Pretty much what I was expecting given the rain shadowing, being on the southern side of the ranges. Great to see areas on the other side of the ranges and further north picking up some good falls. Looking quite mild for the next week.

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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by Dane » Sat May 20, 2017 10:42 am

Just 2.2mm's here overnight. MTD now 17.1mm's - Ave is 62mm's.
Looks like a below average month coming up.

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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by Gordon » Sat May 20, 2017 12:22 pm

JasmineStorm wrote:
Sat May 20, 2017 6:12 am
The constant stream of heavy showers between 9pm and 2am , got things back on track here. 21mm for the thread :) 27mm for the month. Ashbourne just south of here had 32mm. The funny thing is that all the models and the BoM forecast re-adjusted yesterday afternoon predicting only a couple of mm for last night :D
Nice work JS - glad you ended up with something half decent. We totalled 2mm; all from patchy showers last night, long after the main 'rainband' had passed.

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Didjman
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by Didjman » Sat May 20, 2017 12:43 pm

9mm here in Kilmore.

On a side note and a bit off topic, (for those that do not know) the ASA webcam for Kilmore Gap is on a hill called Pretty Sally (from the gold fields era). It is just nth of Wallan. As you can see - a spectacular 360Deg view including the Melbourne CBD. Pretty Sally with its telecomms towers, can be seen from the Eureka Tower on a clear day. It is on the southern edge of the Great Divide.

Peter
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by Adam37 » Sat May 20, 2017 5:04 pm

Just checked the rain gauge a I recorded 8mm overnight, the showers were quite heavy at times during the night.

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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat May 20, 2017 8:57 pm

Good rain down in Tassie.

@Peter, great little story on the pretty sally hill with the Kilmore webcam. Some great shots coming from the cam.

Temps for the next few days are very mild, then 3 fronts in 6 days with the last one maybe a big cold one.

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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by Tassiedave » Sat May 20, 2017 9:59 pm

Rainfalls in Tasmania since 9 am include Mathinna 79 mm, Upper Esk 71 mm, Fisher River 65 mm, Grey 64 mm, Wynyard 58 mm, Sheffield 42 mm, Lake Leake 35 mm, Scottsdale 28 mm, Launceston 16 mm, Hobart 2.6 mm

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hillybilly
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by hillybilly » Sun May 21, 2017 6:54 am

Rainfalls in Tasmania since 9 am include Mathinna 79 mm, Upper Esk 71 mm, Fisher River 65 mm, Grey 64 mm, Wynyard 58 mm, Sheffield 42 mm, Lake Leake 35 mm, Scottsdale 28 mm, Launceston 16 mm, Hobart 2.6 mm
Few spots now passed 100mm which is good to see. Been a very dry few months in Tas so over due :D

We've finished the "event" here in FC on 1.0mm :(

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