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Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by droughtbreaker »

A very hot week ahead here but bayside parts of Melbourne should see shallow wind changes and general sea breezes. The temperature will spike though at times when the sea breeze slackens off.

It looks like mid to high 30s here for tomorrow and Monday and then another spike of heat later into next week that looks a little less intense. Some showers and storms are likely around that time though.

After that it looks like we will see several days of showers/rain with the remains of TC Anthony coming down over us.
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Anthony Violi
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Anthony Violi »

The very hottest air is still from Adelaide back North westwards, so we will be shielded somewhat. Im still thinking it will be cloudy for the main with a wafty seabreeze change around the place. Coastal areas will struggle to get above 35.
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by norfolk »

29c at 10am. HOT!
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Supercellimpact
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Supercellimpact »

Interesting that Melbourne is 29c and here is 25 with a dp of 14.
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Karl Lijnders
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Karl Lijnders »

A shallow wind shift could ruin the record heat tomorrow night. Otherwise we may need to change this thread title to looking towards the next substantial humid period with every hot session of weather having humidity this season! Certainly shifting away from the dry days that is for sure.
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by stratospear »

Some intriguing weather conditions in Ceduna atm. Temp = 43, DP = -14, RN = 2%. It clearly demonstrates that dry air is out there ready to pounce!

West coast of Victoria is cooking today.
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by cutofflow »

stratospear wrote:Some intriguing weather conditions in Ceduna atm. Temp = 43, DP = -14, RN = 2%. It clearly demonstrates that dry air is out there ready to pounce!

West coast of Victoria is cooking today.
Humidity sensor at Ceduna is cactus. Dp of 27 at 10.30am today now -13.8

This airmass really isnt that dry. Nullabor DP of 5 should equate to probably 10-15 in inland vic. Quite a long way from the serious negative DPs of Jan-Feb 09 and Oct 06. Should still see a few forties around the place however
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Karl Lijnders »

cutofflow wrote:
stratospear wrote:Some intriguing weather conditions in Ceduna atm. Temp = 43, DP = -14, RN = 2%. It clearly demonstrates that dry air is out there ready to pounce!

West coast of Victoria is cooking today.
Humidity sensor at Ceduna is cactus. Dp of 27 at 10.30am today now -13.8

This airmass really isnt that dry. Nullabor DP of 5 should equate to probably 10-15 in inland vic. Quite a long way from the serious negative DPs of Jan-Feb 09 and Oct 06. Should still see a few forties around the place however
Could not agree more. Got to wonder if the thermometors are all up to speed as well. Could be some false readings out there then if that calibration issues are happening at a fairly major SA centre.

In any case, you cannot deny the heat pool out there. Dramatic but nothing amazing. Only compounded by the synoptic pattern over the rest of the country.
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by cutofflow »

Moomba, Marree, Oodnadatta and to some extent Coober pedy are all observing rises in humidity today. Just to cherry pick Moomba, despite the hot airmass it is only 38.6 currently and DP of 15c. Marree 41/13 !

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS60801 ... 5481.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS60801 ... 5480.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The Easterly flow from the tasman high / TC Anthony arrangement has started to push into the continent
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by cutofflow »

hillybilly wrote:
Humidity sensor at Ceduna is cactus. Dp of 27 at 10.30am today now -13.8
DP is very hard to measure under extreme conditions such as we have ATM. The very high DP earlier in the day are definitely wrong and can easily happen if there is a bit of dust on the sensors, but I wouldn't rule out the negatives as a few other centres went negative earlier in the day (Woomera was below -10 earlier in the morning). At low humidity the DP can change drastically without much difference in the total amount of moisture in the air - if you look at the BoM climate analyses they analyse vapour pressure which is much more stable in space and time.
Definitely faulty (and still is).

Amazingly Moomba couldnt crack the 40 today. That hot airmass is really confined to the Nullabor/border area and southern SA. Anywhere inland or with-in arms reach of the the Tasman easterlys are well under the predicted forecast
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Nick Sykes »

Hey Guys

As I type this I see photos of snow on Facebook but my attention is shifting towards some potentially very warm conditions for October the next week or two. There looks like 2 periods of warmth, the first on Monday the 15/10/12 and the second, and potentially much more substantial some time between the 18th and 21st.

The first period of warmth looks like bringing temps from the high 20's to low 30's through Victoria, not crazy warm but certainly better than the recent cold outbreak.

The more significant heat looks like it will follow later in the week with a weak change due on Tuesday doing little to displace a warming airmass over inland Australia. This airmass is progged to get very warm, with 850 temps over 25c over inland Australia. EC hints at a front approaching Thursday/Friday dragging this hot airmass over the SE. EC has 850 temps of 20c in Vic. GFS extended places Vic in line for potential heat over the weekend of the 20th/21st. So the models are a bit over the place atm

Nick

P.S the dates of any heat look hard to pin down, but there is certainly potential for Vic to see very warm weather from next week on
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Thanks Nick for reviving this thread!

I was just looking at the 12z guidance, and some of the models are certainly hinting at quite a warm few days into this approaching weekend in particular. Something we will keep an eye on. On a personal note, I certainly hope we do get a warm blast, I just need warmth and sun!! 8-)
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Looks like we will still be waiting for the heat for a while, substantial heat anyway, with extended model runs continuing to show yo yo temperatures. Warmer next Tuesday before another strong front and cold southwesterly airflow. Worth keeping an eye on!
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