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Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

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HarleyB
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by HarleyB »

And now Woomera is 48.1C with still an hour or so of heating to go, could touch 49 there. Am I right in saying this airmass is hotter than everyone was expecting, or is it about what you guys were expecting?
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Twister »

Very hot across SA today I feel next 10 days or so will see bursts of heat here, but almost sustained north of the Murray

Few 40s in NW Sun-Mon i reckon

Hot few weeks for the country coming up
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Anthony Violi »

EC has receded the heat even further inland, and then establishes a very moist airmass over a fair swathe of the country on the weekend. We will miss out on the heat this time, maybe next fortnight it will build again.
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Karl Lijnders
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Karl Lijnders »

What is amazing that these records are happening in areas which recieved record rainfall over the past 12 months!!! And some areas record cool spells. This weather is all over the shop and so I think it is best to say that there are all kinds of records occurring not just hot ones.
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Petros »

Looks to me the peak of the heat will affect Vic next Friday. Making it all the more ridiculous to send the kids back to school on a Friday :?
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Karl Lijnders »

Thanks for the charts DJ.

Yes, I think we will get a couple of very warm days before we get either TC moisture and a large rain event. Hopefully the flooding would have eased because it doesn't look promising for light falls that is for sure!
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Petros
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Petros »

hillybilly wrote:Hot air is still lurking to the north - lots of places in the 44 to 46C range in NSW/QLD/SA though looks like most centres have peaks 2-4C below records. Tomorrow looks a little hotter again up there.

EC is starting to firm on quite a blast of heat across the southeast - particular for more northerly areas - but even the south could see 3 days of mid/high 30s into the 40s going by the latest charts. Few days out, so might change :?: but one suspect areas north of the divide are going to get a long hot spell.
HB - what days are you predicting it will affect us in Vic?
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Karl Lijnders »

Yeah and if that comes off I will take my clothes off. ACCESS cannot be taken seriously as a model at that far out! It always goes over the top. What do the others say!?
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Rhys_34 »

Hey hillbilly do you have a link to that ACCESS model you are using to forecast those 50C temps please?
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Petethemoskeet »

Karl Lijnders wrote:Yeah and if that comes off I will take my clothes off. ACCESS cannot be taken seriously as a model at that far out! It always goes over the top. What do the others say!?
Yeah i would not put much faith into ACCESS models,IMO not much better than the old GASP models.
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by johnno »

This is the same model that pratically had no rain for any parts of Victoria for both Monday morning and Tuesday Night 12 hours out hmmm
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Nick Sykes »

Hey guys,

AVN has had extremely hot air with 850 temps around 33C progged for the Ecula region for a few days now, this would see temps near 50 at the surface. Certainly the most impressive pool of hot air I've seen progged, and to have it in areas near sea level.

Going to be close.

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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Anthony Violi »

There is a reason for that...its truly a horrific model. Basics its ok but the finer points it lacks badly...like recognizing a cyclone would be a good start.

GFS and EC have two major differences, GFS puts the heat over us, whilst EC keeps it well north near the border and into NSW, and also GFS destroys Brisbane late next week with a cat 3 cyclone, where as EC takes aim at Cairns.

Funnily enough NOGAPS goes in between around Rockhampton thru Mackay so there is a decent level of uncertainty there.

Either way, it will very hot inland, damage on the coast and floods everywhere again.
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by johnno »

Oh Yes don't get me wrong it will become extremely hot over the dessert parts of Australia over the coming days infact it already has but 50c on/near the surface? Not sure about that yet
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Karl Lijnders »

Only problem about the 50C theory is cloud coverage. That is the only problem I have right now and hopefully my clothes will stay on.
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Latest GFS not really bringing in any wind change until Monday now whereas it was previously indicating a dry wind shift later Sunday in the far southwest. This means another hot one on Monday as well through most parts of Victoria. GFS also has the heat returning later next week.
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by johnno »

Yeah I'm going to reserve my judgement until I see UK and EC tonight to see if the change comes through later Sunday or late Monday
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by johnno »

Just seen latest UK and has the trough entering far SW Victoria Sunday morning
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by johnno »

So in other words David today surface temps were 1-2c lower than what the 850hPa temps were showing for these areas Today? I thought models were showing 32c in those areas at 850hPa levels today?
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Re: Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

Post by johnno »

Point taken David but nothing fine about a 2nd major cyclone progged by most models including EC and GFS for Coral Sea/Queensland next week and ACCESS has nothing
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