Looking towards substantial heat for SE Australia

[HarleyB]

Even I am starting to want a little burst of extreme heat here. Hottest this summer here has been 39.6°C so starting to look a bit unlikely for a 40 degree day here this year. Could be the first year for goodness knows how long!

[Rhys_34]

Now 34C 850 hpa temps forecast for late this week over places such as Carnegie in WA, pity there not near sea-level (they are around 500m asl)or we'd have Australia's first 50C in over 12 years on our hands...

[HarleyB]

There is a small chance of some heat over VIctoria in the first week of Feb. Chance of pushing above 35C here and towards 40C north of the divide. I know its VERY early days but just a little something to keep an eye on. Has anyone else spotted this or am I wrong?

[Jake Smethurst]

Just a heads up that some models are starting to become quite consistent at pushing in some very hot temperatures through southeast Australia, including Victoria, from about Saturday. Temperatures well and trully over 30 degrees for the weekend, touching 40 at a fair few places on the Sunday. Worth an eye on with potentially two TC's about as well.

[johnno]

EC has alot of moisture and cloud (Thanks to the tropical low or cyclone it keeps progging to cross the Queensland coast next Saturday) over Eastern Australia moveing South around the 30th Jan to 1st Feb period so the moisture will undercut the heat to some extent and we shall see temps more in the mid 30's perhaps high 30's in the North with high humidity, can't see a 40c for Melbourne at this stage over the next 10 days

[HarleyB]

Latest OCF forecast indicates 36 degrees for Seymour on Monday 31/1 so Jake is right, getting very warm by then. Thank goodness at this stage next Sunday is only going to be around the same temp as todays was (for cricket)

[HarleyB]

I don't think we will see temperatures go anywhere near 40 bar the far west, north west and northern country. Hottest I can see it getting to south of the divide is 35-37 and around my neck of the woods 36-38.

I know its off topic, but low 40s temps in the Wimmera and Mallee after all this rain and the last weeks and this weeks drying out could be a bit of fire danger around. Regarding the last note, what are the wind speeds and humidities for Vic on Sat-Mon?

[Nick Sykes]

I know this is a little off topic, but there would have to be a fair chance of somewhere in SE WA, SA, SW QLD and Western NSW having a crack at 50C over the coming week or so. The best chances I feel would be the lower elevations in SA from the west coast through inland parts. Also looks like the Ecula could have a chance of getting this extreme airmass dragged over it. With 850 temps around 32-33 there is a fair chance of a 50C.

[Rhys_34]

Thursday looks to be the best bet to achieve the magical 50C mark, Oodnadatta has 33C 850hpa temps over it, combined with a number of days in the mid 40's earlier in the week it will be touch and go if it reaches 50C...if it was at sea level almost a certainty but it's around 120m asl so that might be enough take 1C off the maximum...who knows that might be enough to make the difference!

[droughtbreaker]

GFS remains keen on a 42C to 43C day in Melbourne on the last day of the month although mysteriously drops the temps down to 19C by 5pm whilst the inland remains hot.

EC keeping the heat away until at least early Feb.

[johnno]

EC joining the party with some serious heat over Southern Australia next week & looks less humid at this stage, we shall know more in a few days time.

[droughtbreaker]

Yeah, EC has switched over to the GFS scenario. Looks like a genuine blast of heat. One day around 43C in Melbourne is likely but several days in the high 30s to 40s is possible. I am liking the look of EC at the end of the run though with a distinct area of cooler 850T (mid teens) extending well up into the tropics immediately behind the extreme heat mass.

[norfolk]

lots of heat around tomorrow in inland parts. if the winds were stronger, would be hotter here too

[Jake Smethurst]

Yes EC throwing in some heat now too. Just worth to keep an eye on the models.

Looking interesting for potential records to be broken though this week.

[norfolk]

Frustrating that the heat is all around but not here in southern Vic!

[droughtbreaker]

Not a bad day today, 21.5C, sunny with just a light breeze. It will warm up in the next few hours and should scrape around 27C here. Humidity is still really high here and that is the main feature of our weather so far this year (and ever since Black Saturday for that matter). There is a lot of heat around but a heap of moisture through the middle levels and remaining at the surface. Cloud will have to be a factor. EC seems to be shifting the hottest air north a little more. We will get one or two days approaching 40C in Melbourne over the course of the next 2 weeks. It's not looking too bad in between though so no major multi day heatwaves ahead at this stage.

[Jake Smethurst]

Looking hot in the northwest on Saturday, then generally through most parts on Sunday. Temperatures ranging from aprox. 35-40 degrees. Similar temperatures on Monday ahead of a weak thundery change. Then more heat to return.

Richard Caryline (hope I spelt his name right) from the BoM is tipping hot temps Saturday-Monday, starting in the northwest, then spreading to most places on Sunday. He then said a weak change Monday but hot temps ahead. After that he mentioned a day or two of milder weather, then very hot temperatures to return.

[norfolk]

One can only hope!

[David]

Trust me you wouldn't want that airmass coming down, Woomera SA has just broken it record for hottest day on record (reaching 47.7) previous record 47.6 on the 2nd Jan 1960.

[droughtbreaker]

47.8C at Port Augusta is even more extreme, smashing the previous all time record by more than 1C.

EDIT: Correction, apparently the PA record max is 47.1C.