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Looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Australia

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.
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JasmineStorm
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Summer 2016 /17 possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm »

There is certainly a monsoon trough in the OZ neighbourhood on Dec 23rd according to CMC. A fascinating few days on the models to come and what will be the flow on affect on the Victorian Chrissy period.
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CMC 23122016 12z 14122016.jpg
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Jake Smethurst
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Re: Looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Australia

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Just thought I'd pop this in here. It's been a looooonnnnngggg time since I've seen the models prog something like this in Victoria. Will most definitely change as we get closer, however it's good to see the instability starting to return for the upcoming storm season! :P
gfs.stormcast.bsch.init-2017091406z.fcst-201709221600z.li.vic.null.0.png
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Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
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Jake Smethurst
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Re: Looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Australia

Post by Jake Smethurst »

Certainly nothing in the models to get excited about at this point for Victoria. Most have mainly stable conditions persisting throughout the outlook period, varied by a couple of weak fronts. Maybe, just maybe something towards the end of the model runs coming through.
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Hunter1890
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Re: Looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Australia

Post by Hunter1890 »

La-Nina Watch declared

"The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. However, models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, making the chance of a La Niña forming in late 2017 at least 50%; around double the normal likelihood. While this means the Bureau's ENSO Outlook has shifted to La Niña WATCH, rainfall outlooks remain neutral due to competing climate drivers."
-Budding Climate Nerd-
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Jake Smethurst
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Re: Looking towards substantial rainfall for SE Australia

Post by Jake Smethurst »

^^ Just to add onto your post above Hunter, NOAA in the US have officially declared a La Nina event. BoM tend to have stricter thresholds but shouldn't be too long before they agree.
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