Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.

Moderator: mad*moo73

User avatar
crikey
Supercell
Posts: 1314
Joined: Mon Feb 07, 2011 8:02 pm
Location: tweed shire NSW and nDUNOLLY.. Nth Central district VIC
Contact:

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:15 am

Didjman wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 4:48 pm
The jet around the Polar "Vortex" is now anything BUT circular at 70Hpa!
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -95.15,488
Yes. 70hPa has lost symetry for sure.
Noting also, one side of the 10hPa polar vortex has reduced wind speed.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -95.15,488

User avatar
crikey
Supercell
Posts: 1314
Joined: Mon Feb 07, 2011 8:02 pm
Location: tweed shire NSW and nDUNOLLY.. Nth Central district VIC
Contact:

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:17 am

JasmineStorm wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:39 am
Goodness me.....over 100+ models across multiple agencies are now showing an extraordinary heat bomb developing over the polar region in the upper stratosphere at the end of August.
Look forward to your updates.

User avatar
Didjman
Moderator
Posts: 1508
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:07 pm

It appears to be coming together

User avatar
crikey
Supercell
Posts: 1314
Joined: Mon Feb 07, 2011 8:02 pm
Location: tweed shire NSW and nDUNOLLY.. Nth Central district VIC
Contact:

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Wed Aug 21, 2019 1:35 pm

Welcome to 'djon' from weatherchaser website.
There is a smorgasbord of radar and satellite images, as wel as other cool stuff
Check out this massive cold pool and front off the Sth coast of WA atm,. The neg' AAO continuing to do its magic with a strong meridonal wavy pattern in the westerly belt.
source
https://theweatherchaser.com/
Image

User avatar
Didjman
Moderator
Posts: 1508
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:57 pm

I reckon our storm season is going to start with an almighty bang!!

The jet around the "Vortex" at 70 Hpa is becoming very ragged:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -89.25,488

WOW WOW WOW at these:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 10anim.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 30anim.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 50anim.gif

And my saved progression (updated daily) of the Eddy Heat Flux Charts:
https://didjman59.wordpress.com/2019/08 ... nter-2019/

If the MJO should line up with the surface effects of the above....................

User avatar
Didjman
Moderator
Posts: 1508
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:15 am

This morning we have finally have a vortex split with almost a third vortex between the two:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 86.65,3000

JasmineStorm
Supercell
Posts: 1860
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:41 am

Main EC model goes KABOOM by 31 Aug. Full blown SSW @ 10 hPa over the South Pole.
Attachments
EC 10 hPa 3108.jpg
EC 10 hPa 3108.jpg (343.91 KiB) Viewed 411 times

User avatar
Didjman
Moderator
Posts: 1508
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:59 am

Considering the animated gifs I posted last night, I would be surprised if it didn't happen JS :o

JasmineStorm
Supercell
Posts: 1860
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:17 am

At the moment I can't find a model that doesn't think it will not happen. Obviously the lower stratospheric polar vortex is currently under stress. The overall strength is now the main question but EC looks incredible at this stage.

On other driver topics - it's fair to say that almost all climate models did not pick the negative trend of Nino 3.4 in August :)
Attachments
Nino 3.4.jpg
Nino 3.4.jpg (232.78 KiB) Viewed 397 times

User avatar
Didjman
Moderator
Posts: 1508
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:12 am

So is this pointing to possible La Nina??

User avatar
crikey
Supercell
Posts: 1314
Joined: Mon Feb 07, 2011 8:02 pm
Location: tweed shire NSW and nDUNOLLY.. Nth Central district VIC
Contact:

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:29 am

Would l be right in saying that heat anomaly is starting to rotate around the pole again, or is it just going to shift position.I noticed the warm and cool blobs also almost disappeared for a few days. Either way lmguess it is a sign that there is 'movement at the station'

User avatar
crikey
Supercell
Posts: 1314
Joined: Mon Feb 07, 2011 8:02 pm
Location: tweed shire NSW and nDUNOLLY.. Nth Central district VIC
Contact:

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:55 am

Didjman wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:15 am
This morning we have finally have a vortex split with almost a third vortex between the two:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 86.65,3000
a picture for the archives
Image

User avatar
crikey
Supercell
Posts: 1314
Joined: Mon Feb 07, 2011 8:02 pm
Location: tweed shire NSW and nDUNOLLY.. Nth Central district VIC
Contact:

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:01 am

JasmineStorm wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:41 am
Main EC model goes KABOOM by 31 Aug. Full blown SSW @ 10 hPa over the South Pole.
The color temp' variation certainly looks very impressive.
The 10hPa wind stream still looks very much in tact this morning.
Thanks for all the updates.

JasmineStorm
Supercell
Posts: 1860
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:33 pm

Didjman wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:12 am
So is this pointing to possible La Nina??
Still very neutral in my opinion but its certainly getting interesting.

JasmineStorm
Supercell
Posts: 1860
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:23 pm

I'm seeing a +60 to +70c temperature anomalies on EC 00Z 22082019 in the upper stratosphere at the end of August over Antarctica. Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls....I'm speechless. In the short term, this will have a global impact on weather patterns over many months if it comes off.

User avatar
Didjman
Moderator
Posts: 1508
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:47 pm

JasmineStorm wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:23 pm
I'm seeing a +60 to +70c temperature anomalies on EC 00Z 22082019 in the upper stratosphere at the end of August over Antarctica. Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls....I'm speechless. In the short term, this will have a global impact on weather patterns over many months if it comes off.
Those anomalies anywhere are insane! All we can do is watch it unfold atm. Talking of which:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -91.34,975

The polar vortices at 70hpa appear to be almost convulsing atm! In Crikeys capture in a post above, the left hand vortex is now so contorted to be almost dead, while the right hand vortex is stretched like an elastic band.
At 10 hpa:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -91.34,975
things look like an out of balance washing machine!

JasmineStorm
Supercell
Posts: 1860
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:25 am

NZ climate scientists are now picking up the SSW event https://www.niwa.co.nz/news/rare-weathe ... n-possible

User avatar
crikey
Supercell
Posts: 1314
Joined: Mon Feb 07, 2011 8:02 pm
Location: tweed shire NSW and nDUNOLLY.. Nth Central district VIC
Contact:

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by crikey » Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:27 pm

JasmineStorm wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:23 pm
I'm seeing a +60 to +70c temperature anomalies on EC 00Z 22082019 in the upper stratosphere at the end of August over Antarctica. Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls....I'm speechless. In the short term, this will have a global impact on weather patterns over many months if it comes off.
could you provide a link to those forecast anomalies. of +60 +70.
Would like to see that ..
I can see the temp' gradient you posted above for the 10hPa showing -78 on the cool side and - 8 on the warm side.
That gives a gradient hill of about 70deg c Is that what you are saying?
The geopotential height is extremely lop sided?

User avatar
Didjman
Moderator
Posts: 1508
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:39 pm

As I mentioned in a post here the other day, this could coincide with a projected strong MJO. What then........?

User avatar
Didjman
Moderator
Posts: 1508
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:52 pm
Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
Contact:

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Fri Aug 23, 2019 4:10 pm


Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest