Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:54 pm

Might be a good storm season, especially if the IOD and MJO play ball :D
Re the SSW descending, this appears to show similar:

Image

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:49 am

Image

Highest temp is +3.71C.

Is the first offshoot from this event happening at the surface in OZ later this week (the SSW has been going for around 3 weeks)?

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:26 am

SSW seems to be coupling near the Jetstream in a week, hard to tell still on when full potential reaches the lower troposphere.

SAM saves the day again in Vic for the Southern wet season. Virtually no rain in March and April, positive IOD, neutral pacific and then BANG.....the start of May has a moderate low level stratospheric disturbance. BoM drought map since March tells the story when you see two thirds of the time since May has been a negative SAM. Rain and snow! All went to script for most of Vic :) Without the negative SAM sequence, that would have been a very redish BoM map.

IMO, dry areas of OZ will see major flooding within 12 months as the ocean's are starting to change.
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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:47 pm

JasmineStorm wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:26 am
SSW seems to be coupling near the Jetstream in a week, hard to tell still on when full potential reaches the lower troposphere.
How do you know re coupling ahead of time? What do you look at?

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Sep 16, 2019 4:31 pm

Didjman wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:47 pm
JasmineStorm wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:26 am
SSW seems to be coupling near the Jetstream in a week, hard to tell still on when full potential reaches the lower troposphere.
How do you know re coupling ahead of time? What do you look at?
The vortex circulation in the upper troposphere is aligning in position to the above stratospheric vortex. An aggressive long wave trough is also jagging northward in the same area near Sth America.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Mon Sep 16, 2019 5:53 pm

I noticed the LWT near Sth America on the 3d site, but where(site) / what GPH do you see the tropospheric vortex? Nullschool at 250 hpa looks the go??

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:25 pm

Didjman wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 5:53 pm
I noticed the LWT near Sth America on the 3d site, but where(site) / what GPH do you see the tropospheric vortex? Nullschool at 250 hpa looks the go??
There is a 2nd vortex circulation developing around the tropopause at 150 hPA below the main upper stratospheric vortex near Sth America around 72 hours, viewed on https://www.stratobserve.com/prs_gphws_maps

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:53 pm

JasmineStorm wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:25 pm
There is a 2nd vortex circulation developing around the tropopause at 150 hPA below the main upper stratospheric vortex near Sth America around 72 hours, viewed on https://www.stratobserve.com/prs_gphws_maps
Seen that. So that is the coupling or beginning of? Wow! You have taught me sooo much :D Thank you!!

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:18 pm

Didjman wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:53 pm
JasmineStorm wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:25 pm
There is a 2nd vortex circulation developing around the tropopause at 150 hPA below the main upper stratospheric vortex near Sth America around 72 hours, viewed on https://www.stratobserve.com/prs_gphws_maps
Seen that. So that is the coupling or beginning of? Wow! You have taught me sooo much :D Thank you!!
No probs ;) That 2nd circulation and the upper low in the troposphere below it is a sign that they have coupled with the upper stratosphere above. Chaos reins and the polar jet is thrown northward near Sth America :)

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:29 pm

JasmineStorm wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:18 pm
No probs ;) That 2nd circulation and the upper low in the troposphere below it is a sign that they have coupled with the upper stratosphere above. Chaos reins and the polar jet is thrown northward near Sth America :)
So that coupling appears to last only a couple of days. Is that it, or will there be other couplings ahead for near our region?

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:55 pm

Didjman wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:29 pm
JasmineStorm wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:18 pm
No probs ;) That 2nd circulation and the upper low in the troposphere below it is a sign that they have coupled with the upper stratosphere above. Chaos reins and the polar jet is thrown northward near Sth America :)
So that coupling appears to last only a couple of days. Is that it, or will there be other couplings ahead for near our region?
The coupling of the event will be sporadic. Which means fast unusual windy heat and cold events, just like NSW and Canberra saw today ;)

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:42 pm

JasmineStorm wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:55 pm
The coupling of the event will be sporadic. Which means fast unusual windy heat and cold events, just like NSW and Canberra saw today ;)
Ok. Makes sense. many thx again :D

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:27 pm

Its looking like no coupling between 10 and 150 hpa in our region for a while, according to GFS on the link you posted earlier JS.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by StratoBendigo » Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:01 am

Looks like the +ve IOD is going to head towards Neutral by summer. Although a neutral/weak El-Nino appears to keep hanging around.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

I'm going to crunch some numbers. The last 5 years (2015-2019) seem to be quite similar to 1987-1991....

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Fri Sep 20, 2019 6:10 am

According to GFS, there will be coupling between the Stratosphere and Troposphere in around 16 days (384hrs) from now - between Africa and Australia:

https://www.stratobserve.com/prs_gphws_maps

The vortices at 10 and 150hpa are almost perfectly aligned.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Sun Sep 22, 2019 8:03 am

Polar vortex looking a bit sick today!!~

Image

No real coupling evident at this link as yet:

https://www.stratobserve.com/prs_gphws_maps

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Hawker » Sun Sep 22, 2019 8:18 am

StratoBendigo wrote:
Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:01 am
Looks like the +ve IOD is going to head towards Neutral by summer. Although a neutral/weak El-Nino appears to keep hanging around.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

I'm going to crunch some numbers. The last 5 years (2015-2019) seem to be quite similar to 1987-1991....
Yes it looks like it according to this article as being one of the strongest on record.
Its going to be a slow recovery well into summer.
https://watchers.news/2019/09/17/indian ... on-record/
Hopefully after that the climate will swing the other way.
It will certainly need to for a lot of aus or it will very dire indeed.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Raiderpete » Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:07 pm

59057634-C4CA-47DA-9DB2-D0D69FF4B8E4.png
All defined stratospheric pressure levels are seeing new temperature minimums set over the Tropics, but 30mb for 25°S-25°N stands out. Any other SH strat-disturbed year (e.g. 2002) didn't see a response like this over the Tropics
59057634-C4CA-47DA-9DB2-D0D69FF4B8E4.png (80.18 KiB) Viewed 254 times
All defined stratospheric pressure levels are seeing new temperature minimums set over the Tropics, this is the 30mb level. The other SH SSW years have not had this kind of response over the tropics. Interesting times ahead.

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Tue Sep 24, 2019 5:26 pm

Raiderpete wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:07 pm
All defined stratospheric pressure levels are seeing new temperature minimums set over the Tropics, this is the 30mb level. The other SH SSW years have not had this kind of response over the tropics. Interesting times ahead.
So what effect is this likely to have?? Lifting of the Tropopause with more severe storms, cyclones.....?

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Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Post by Didjman » Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:45 am

GFS is suggesting SAM will swing to -3 within a few days around 10 October. (its currently +1).

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