Welcome New Members! We want to hear from you. Register, stop lurking and start posting!

Cyclone Season is it over ?

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.
Post Reply
M
MikeCramb
New User
Reactions:
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Feb 28, 2017 2:01 pm

Cyclone Season is it over ?

Post by MikeCramb »

Hi all,
Im a yachty sitting out the Cyclone season on the Gold Coast. We hope to head North at the end of March. Can anyone explain why the predicted above average Cyclone Season didnt eventuate & will there be much chance of Cyclones forming this late in the season or around April 2017. :D
J
Jake Smethurst
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3583
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2009 8:49 pm
Location: Cheltenham

Re: Cyclone Season is it over ?

Post by Jake Smethurst »

G'day Mike,

Tropical cyclone forecasting isn't one of my strengths, however there has been quite a discussion throughout the meteorological community this season as to why there is a lack of cyclones across the Australian region - only two have developed. In-fact, only eight in total have formed throughout the southern hemisphere so far (to the end of Feb), well below average, which according to the BoM is eighteen (to the end of Feb). As to why ... well I'm not sure. Arguments around the causes range from the SSTs being too variable to the higher than normal shear that's resulting in sinking air in the southern Indian.

One thing I have noticed, is March is typically quite active Monsoon wise, so there generally tends to be a heightened risk of cyclones. The BoM mentions this in their latest tropical notes:
Despite the quiet start to the Australian cyclone season, the risk of tropical low or tropical cyclone formation will increase significantly as the predicted monsoon trough to Australia’s north strengthens.
This read is interesting too: https://weather.com/news/weather/news/s ... l-cyclones

JasmineStorm might be able to add some more. :)
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
J
JasmineStorm
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1870
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: Cyclone Season is it over ?

Post by JasmineStorm »

G'day Mike,

As Jake mentions, there are a few theories going around. The OZ cyclone prediction text book is currently being rewritten by the BoM climate team. Unfavourable vertical wind shear has shredded every monsoon low and kept the first 2 cyclones to Category 1’s. The current cyclone TC Blanche has more favourable conditions but maybe short lived because it will be steered over land.

From what I have witnessed, the upper atmosphere westerly winds has been a season killer so far. There has been plenty of moisture and water temps have been good. Conditions are becoming more favourable though and this is what I currently see.

1. Upper winds off NE Australia have now turned more easterly of late.
2. Sea surface temps between the Solomon Islands and Australian mainland tropics are 0.5 to 2 degrees above average (28 to 30c).
3. The monsoon trough looks like strengthening next week with a new surge.
4. Convection activity is increasing with the new Monsoon surge.

I personally wouldn’t sail any further north than 25 degrees until after Easter ;)

JS
M
MikeCramb
New User
Reactions:
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Feb 28, 2017 2:01 pm

Re: Cyclone Season is it over ?

Post by MikeCramb »

Thanks for the info. Im staying on the Gold Coast for a few more weeks & keeping an eye on the weather. Hoping we dont get any Cyclones but I gather if we will it will be in March.
J
Jake Smethurst
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 3583
Joined: Mon Nov 23, 2009 8:49 pm
Location: Cheltenham

Re: Cyclone Season is it over ?

Post by Jake Smethurst »

G'day guys.

Another handy discussion, this time directly from the BoM regarding the low number of cyclones. It's an interesting listen.

http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/pro ... 19/8362822
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
J
JasmineStorm
Supercell
Reactions:
Posts: 1870
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: Cyclone Season is it over ?

Post by JasmineStorm »

Jake Smethurst wrote: Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:06 pm G'day guys.

Another handy discussion, this time directly from the BoM regarding the low number of cyclones. It's an interesting listen.

http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/pro ... 19/8362822
Good Listen Jake, thanks for sharing. Looks like a be of a monster in the coral sea is now brewing. @Mikecramb, hope you didn't set sail too early ;)
Post Reply