MJO is in phase 2 or 3 and forecast to die a slow death over the next 3 weeks over the Indian Ocean.
And with it goes any chance of an El nino, in fact the SST are cooling rapidly now from the West.
Any Westerlies that were there until August 12 are now gone, and in any case they havent halted the westward progression of the cooler water off the South American coast.
The oceans are decoupled from the atmosphere, but strangely enough the oceans are starting to catch up and couple with the atmosphere, rather than what should be happening. Already most of the equator is only 0.5 to 1 degree above normal and being chewed up by the North Equatorial Current. And thats consistent with what occurs in negative PDO, so get used to it for a couple of decades.
Im currently doing a research project that i will reveal in a year or so re the ENSO. More on that another time.
The way this is shaping up its going to have a hard time to be even warm neutral. And in our climate forecast i mentioned the onset of cooling to begin, and it has begun.