NW Winds at 850 hPA just north of Australia around Indonesia have strengthened this morning to 50 km/p that will assist in a monsoon trough burst arounnd the top end of OZ in the coming days.https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 407,-8.643
With the Monsoon trough dipping south, the big models are disagreeing as you would expect this far out on the potential cyclone off W.A.
GFS Dec 25th 5am Cyclone is a high Cat 3 near Broome. https://www.windytv.com/?2016-12-24-18, ... ,123.728,6
EC Dec 25th 5am Tropical low near Karratha. https://www.windytv.com/?2016-12-24-18, ... ,125.171,6
- click on EC version
Access Dec 25th 5am Ex Cyclone in the Pilbara around 988 hPa (hit as a cat 2 on Dec 24th)
CMC Has not modelled a cyclone - only Tropical lows
Navy Dec 24th 5pm - 2 Cat 2 Cyclones off the WA coast - unbelievable set up, so I'm ignoring for the moment
What it could mean for Victoria during Christmas period IMO-
- EC and Access could mean a heat wave through the Christmas period up to Dec 29th and then a rain event.
- GFS's higher hit in WA would allow a trough to take hold and give stormy humid conditions
- CMC & Navy discounted for the moment.