2018 Possible upcoming weather events

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.

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flyfisher
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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by flyfisher » Thu May 31, 2018 3:23 pm

I hope it does go wet in June. Currently BOM are saying that lower pressures over the Tasman sea are disrupting the westerly cold fronts. That's pretty much what we have seen to date. The high gets held back over SE Australia because every front cuts off in the Tasman. It needs to change for us to get more weather, particularly north of the ranges.

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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by Gordon » Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:15 pm

Some firming of the models towards the unusual weather event off the north-central coast of WA http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/, drifting down to Vic (particularly northern Vic) by Friday:

Image


Too early for a new thread in Vic weather?

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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:54 am

Stratospheric warming occurring in the lower levels near the tropopause over Antarctica in a weeks time on the GEFS ensemble. EC ensemble going for a big cold shot towards Vic after it mixes down sending the tropospheric polar vortex equatorward. Possibly Rossby wave thrust into SE OZ around July 10 to 18th. Signs of a powerful polar surge near 2nd week to mid July if it verifies :)
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EC and GEFS ensemble 2606.jpg
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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Jul 25, 2018 11:09 am

Large mid level stratospheric anomaly, 2m temps have risen 4 degrees in Antarctica and SAM is going negative big time. The gates of the south pole are about to open up :)
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GEFS strat SAM Aug 1 globasl temps.jpg
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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Jul 28, 2018 5:36 pm

EC now starting to model sea level snow in Victoria within 10 days. Still a long way out but the tropospheric polar vortex is weakening and surface temps in Antarctica have now moved upward of 5c within 3 weeks. This looks like a significant cold snap on the cards within 2 weeks IMO.
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EC and Global temps 2807.jpg
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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Jul 30, 2018 1:00 pm

Forecast models still a bit messy for next week. Everything from stock-standard cold outbreak to a Pineapple express.

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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Aug 22, 2018 5:48 am

EC has produced this a couple of times now..... a significant cold core extratropical cyclone near the S.A border. Haven't seen anything like this since the end of September 2016, which spawned tornadoes and knocked out S.A's power. It has a sting jet set up!! Still early days....plenty of downgrades to come I would assume but pure model entertainment :)
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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:08 am

Stratospheric warming over one half of Antarctica and an incredible cooling on the other half that is coupling with the troposphere below. Almost all global models are picking it up at the moment with GFS and EC producing an epic upper low to impact SE Australia. If the upper low encountered moisture, it would be a historic weather event around mid to late next week. If it doesn't, it could be a significant cold snap. Too early to call it but it looks extreme at the moment :)
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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:26 am

EC ensemble is normally quite conservative past 10 days but it's going for a heat bomb in late Dec into early Jan. Watch for the 50c mark to be challenged in inland OZ. Anywhere in Vic near sea level off the coast that has a north to north westerly during this time will be 40c+ IMO.
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EC ensemble 1712 00Z 850 hPa.jpg
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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by hillybilly » Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:26 pm

That’s a classic heatwave set up for us. Upper trough off Queensland making sure the northeast flow is subsiding so never really introduces moisture to temper the heat :o Hopefully it disappears before it gets here :?

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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by Didjman » Tue Dec 18, 2018 5:13 pm

Feral fire wx if it happens!

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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:39 pm

2 runs in a row on EC with a potential jet stream supported blast furnace in the week of Jan 14th if it verifies. Not sure I have ever seen 20c anomaly @850 hPa around the bight supported by a polar jet. 850 hPa is in high 20's, 5th Feb 2009 was 28c at the same stage. This needs to be watched quite closely in the next few days.
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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by Sean » Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:50 pm

JasmineStorm wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:39 pm
2 runs in a row on EC with a potential jet stream supported blast furnace in the week of Jan 14th if it verifies. Not sure I have ever seen 20c anomaly @850 hPa around the bight supported by a polar jet. 850 hPa is in high 20's, 5th Feb 2009 was 28c at the same stage. This needs to be watched quite closely in the next few days.
The slow/weak start to monsoon season means anything is possible at this stage. A 2009 repeat wouldn't surprise me :(

There's a chance Victoria will see its first 50c this summer. Only a small chance, however. Really takes something monumental to nudge Victoria towards that extreme. Another bout of mid-40s looks like a given though.

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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:19 am

EC has been very good picking up the heat waves and it has a polar jet powered synoptic monster pushing gale force north westerlies state wide with mid 40's into southern areas next week. If it verifies, it will be a red code day next Thursday the 24th. Hopefully it downgrades the front south....
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EC 1501 12Z humidity.jpg
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EC 1501 12Z wind gusts.jpg
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EC 1501 12Z 850 hPa anom.jpg
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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by Rhys_34 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:48 am

Yes worst case scenario next Thursday according to EC with 850hpa temps of 30C and gusts up to 80-90km over Victoria, very similar conditions to Black Saturday...

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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by Sean » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:50 pm

Rhys_34 wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:48 am
Yes worst case scenario next Thursday according to EC with 850hpa temps of 30C and gusts up to 80-90km over Victoria, very similar conditions to Black Saturday...
A stubborn high in the Tasman, extreme temps in the Pilbra, a low in the Indian and the threat of 850hpa temps around 30c.. I mean, that's history in repeat.

The only difference this time, however, is that the preceding heatwave hasn't crossed the divide. Melbourne had three days over 40 before the heatwave of Black Saturday.

I hope downgrades ensue. Those are state of emergency conditions that the models are throwing up. If not for the persistence of this heat, I'd be more willing to dismiss them so far out, but damn.. With the above conditions lasting so long, a pattern that brings a northeasterly has a good chance of coinciding.

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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:11 am

Currently a significant negative SAM. EC showing the decent monsoon pulse into the middle of March with a MJO phase coming into the Maritime continent. Something big is brewing for the middle of March in the mid latitudes.
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MJO to 10 March.jpg
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SAM 24 Feb.jpg
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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Feb 25, 2019 11:30 am

^^ Looks like a repeat of Mid-Late January weather (a 6-7 week cycle). I hope it can tap in to the warming waters off Indonesia this time around and send it in to Vic.

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Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Mar 15, 2019 7:36 am

JasmineStorm wrote:
Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:11 am
Currently a significant negative SAM. EC showing the decent monsoon pulse into the middle of March with a MJO phase coming into the Maritime continent. Something big is brewing for the middle of March in the mid latitudes.
Continuing on from the arrival of the monsoon lows in the next week, the jet streams are now starting to line up with an atmospheric river on the main EC model around 24 to 28 March. A volatile mix indeed :)
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EC 1403 12Z Jets.jpg
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