In a way I am not so worried about a full blown El Nino that concentrates heat in the far eastern Pacific. It's the Modoki El Nino that is much worse when you have warm water in the central Pacific. The 1997 El Nino is an example of a strong one that had little effect on Australia.
IOD is looking a little better now with some warning NW of Australia - it is expected to break down and it looks from local warming and not via the Indonesian flow through which is still pushing water east across the Pacific in the Philippines area. Nothing will save spring rains now, but we can hope for a rouge event to tide us over - fingers cross.
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