2018 Possible upcoming weather events

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.

Moderator: mad*moo73

flyfisher
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 115
Joined: Wed Jul 18, 2012 1:39 pm
Location: Belgrave

Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by flyfisher » Thu May 31, 2018 3:23 pm

I hope it does go wet in June. Currently BOM are saying that lower pressures over the Tasman sea are disrupting the westerly cold fronts. That's pretty much what we have seen to date. The high gets held back over SE Australia because every front cuts off in the Tasman. It needs to change for us to get more weather, particularly north of the ranges.

Gordon
Supercell
Posts: 1693
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by Gordon » Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:15 pm

Some firming of the models towards the unusual weather event off the north-central coast of WA http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/, drifting down to Vic (particularly northern Vic) by Friday:

Image


Too early for a new thread in Vic weather?

JasmineStorm
Supercell
Posts: 1324
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:54 am

Stratospheric warming occurring in the lower levels near the tropopause over Antarctica in a weeks time on the GEFS ensemble. EC ensemble going for a big cold shot towards Vic after it mixes down sending the tropospheric polar vortex equatorward. Possibly Rossby wave thrust into SE OZ around July 10 to 18th. Signs of a powerful polar surge near 2nd week to mid July if it verifies :)
Attachments
EC and GEFS ensemble 2606.jpg
EC and GEFS ensemble 2606.jpg (368.04 KiB) Viewed 691 times

JasmineStorm
Supercell
Posts: 1324
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Jul 25, 2018 11:09 am

Large mid level stratospheric anomaly, 2m temps have risen 4 degrees in Antarctica and SAM is going negative big time. The gates of the south pole are about to open up :)
Attachments
GEFS strat SAM Aug 1 globasl temps.jpg
GEFS strat SAM Aug 1 globasl temps.jpg (291.9 KiB) Viewed 416 times

JasmineStorm
Supercell
Posts: 1324
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Jul 28, 2018 5:36 pm

EC now starting to model sea level snow in Victoria within 10 days. Still a long way out but the tropospheric polar vortex is weakening and surface temps in Antarctica have now moved upward of 5c within 3 weeks. This looks like a significant cold snap on the cards within 2 weeks IMO.
Attachments
EC and Global temps 2807.jpg
EC and Global temps 2807.jpg (160.68 KiB) Viewed 316 times

StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 1001
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Jul 30, 2018 1:00 pm

Forecast models still a bit messy for next week. Everything from stock-standard cold outbreak to a Pineapple express.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest