2018 Possible upcoming weather events

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.

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flyfisher
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 106
Joined: Wed Jul 18, 2012 1:39 pm
Location: Belgrave

Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by flyfisher » Thu May 31, 2018 3:23 pm

I hope it does go wet in June. Currently BOM are saying that lower pressures over the Tasman sea are disrupting the westerly cold fronts. That's pretty much what we have seen to date. The high gets held back over SE Australia because every front cuts off in the Tasman. It needs to change for us to get more weather, particularly north of the ranges.

Gordon
Supercell
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Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by Gordon » Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:15 pm

Some firming of the models towards the unusual weather event off the north-central coast of WA http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/, drifting down to Vic (particularly northern Vic) by Friday:

Image


Too early for a new thread in Vic weather?

JasmineStorm
Supercell
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Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:40 pm
Location: Kyneton 527 ASL

Re: 2018 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:54 am

Stratospheric warming occurring in the lower levels near the tropopause over Antarctica in a weeks time on the GEFS ensemble. EC ensemble going for a big cold shot towards Vic after it mixes down sending the tropospheric polar vortex equatorward. Possibly Rossby wave thrust into SE OZ around July 10 to 18th. Signs of a powerful polar surge near 2nd week to mid July if it verifies :)
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