La Nina - El Nino - IOD

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.

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flyfisher
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Re: La Nina - El Nino - IOD

Post by flyfisher » Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:55 pm

Agreed, a negative IOD is what we need and is the most reliable producer of rain in SE Australia. If the SAM plays ball we could get one of those wet winters that fills up all the storages. Here is hoping after this horrid flash drought.

StratoBendigo
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Re: La Nina - El Nino - IOD

Post by StratoBendigo » Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:15 pm

Now this has got me interested. It wouldn't be the first time we had a dry start to a year that had a wet winter. Combined with Neutral SOI, it could mean a ripper of a snow season.

flyfisher
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Re: La Nina - El Nino - IOD

Post by flyfisher » Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:22 pm

I have a question that may not necessarily be on topic. Why do coastal rain events dump their highest rain right on the coast and not on top of the Dividing range? You see this in NSW coast and Gippsland. In fact look at today's 24 hour totals to see this effect in the Hunter Valley.

However, when we get rain from the NW from the inland, the top of the ranges gets the highest falls.

Kind of depressing these coastal events don't put more rain into the inland areas.

JasmineStorm
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Re: La Nina - El Nino - IOD

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Mar 23, 2018 6:19 pm

Good question flyfisher....

Fairly complex subject with topography, atmosphere and sea temps etc....but my 2 cents worth on your examples would come down to a couple of important factors. If sea temps are warmer than the land temps, significant moisture advection can come into play, especially with surface lows. Coastal areas and mountains near the coast can get some incredible streaming. The classic NW cloud band during winter months which hit the range is more an upper level beast along with the range rain shadowing areas like Melbourne. So many other considerations as well....needs a whole thread :)

JasmineStorm
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Re: La Nina - El Nino - IOD

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:50 pm

Another surge in Indian Ocean SST around indo in the last 7 days. Winter is becoming interesting :)
Attachments
IOD watch.jpg
IOD watch.jpg (107.61 KiB) Viewed 351 times

Gordon
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Re: La Nina - El Nino - IOD

Post by Gordon » Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:19 pm

Interesting to see BOM's latest 3 month outlook sticking with average to above average rainfall for Vic: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/ ... seasonal/0

I had expected they might have bailed by now, but not so!

JasmineStorm
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Re: La Nina - El Nino - IOD

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Apr 12, 2018 5:46 pm

Gordon wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:19 pm
Interesting to see BOM's latest 3 month outlook sticking with average to above average rainfall for Vic: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/ ... seasonal/0

I had expected they might have bailed by now, but not so!
Yes Gordon and the latest BoM along with NASA modelling is still showing a solid negative IOD for winter. Water off Indonesia is still warming also.

JasmineStorm
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Re: La Nina - El Nino - IOD

Post by JasmineStorm » Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:50 am

This is getting very interesting now. UKMO model, arguable top 2 in the world is now showing a negative IOD in July :) EC not quite there but the UK update is significant.
Attachments
April 21st IOD July outlook.jpg
April 21st IOD July outlook.jpg (35.99 KiB) Viewed 26 times

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