La Nina - El Nino - IOD

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.

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JasmineStorm
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Re: La Nina - El Nino - IOD

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Jun 06, 2017 3:48 pm

Indian Ocean has warmed of NW Australia and cooled off East Africa in the last 7 days. Interesting change and one to watch in the next 2 weeks relating to the IOD.
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SST change Indian Ocean last 7 days.jpg
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Geoff
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Re: La Nina - El Nino - IOD

Post by Geoff » Mon Aug 07, 2017 7:18 pm

Encouraging signs taking place in the Indian Ocean now, with warming to our N/W and cooling over towards Africa. Rainfall prospects should continue to improve if this development continues.

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JasmineStorm
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Re: La Nina - El Nino - IOD

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:02 am

Geoff wrote:
Mon Aug 07, 2017 7:18 pm
Encouraging signs taking place in the Indian Ocean now, with warming to our N/W and cooling over towards Africa. Rainfall prospects should continue to improve if this development continues.
Good pick up Geoff. Interesting signs also on the eastern side of the Pacific.... looks a little La Nina-ish

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Re: La Nina - El Nino - IOD

Post by Gordon » Sun Aug 20, 2017 11:54 am

Sneaky little 'mid-term' revision from BOM here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/ ... ew/summary

Looks like the apocalyptically dry spring forecast (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/arc ... look.shtml) needed urgent attention!

I wonder what period the 31 August outlook will apply to given the 17 August forecast is for Sept-Nov?

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Re: La Nina - El Nino - IOD

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:32 am

Gordon wrote:
Sun Aug 20, 2017 11:54 am
Sneaky little 'mid-term' revision from BOM here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/ ... ew/summary

Looks like the apocalyptically dry spring forecast (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/arc ... look.shtml) needed urgent attention!

I wonder what period the 31 August outlook will apply to given the 17 August forecast is for Sept-Nov?
Yes, Gordon. Well spotted. They have got August wrong now 2 years in a row. Last year they said the IOD was weakening and then KABOOM within 2 weeks. This year they underestimated the westerly conveyor belt. They should stick to 14 days forecasts until climate modelling becomes more accurate IMO.

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Re: La Nina - El Nino - IOD

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:34 am

I've been watching the Pacific over the last 2 weeks and it has held steady on a La Nina set up. It's becoming interesting now IMO ;)
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Aug 27 pacific.jpg
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Re: La Nina - El Nino - IOD

Post by Didjman » Mon Aug 28, 2017 7:48 pm

So JS, could that translate into a good storm season here?
Peter
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Re: La Nina - El Nino - IOD

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:04 am

Didjman wrote:
Mon Aug 28, 2017 7:48 pm
So JS, could that translate into a good storm season here?
Peter
Yes Peter, If the atmosphere aligns with the ocean temps in the next month, I think it will be double the storms of the last couple of years for eastern and south east Australia. NSW and QLD especially but Victoria definitely increased. The coral sea is unusually warm, so an early start to cyclone season has potential as well.

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