2017 Possible upcoming weather events

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.

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JasmineStorm
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2017 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Feb 28, 2017 10:56 am

Just thought I put a catch all thread for the rest of the year for possible events that could be of interest.

First cab of the rank is what EC is modelling for next week. Potentially this could be the grand finale to the late summer heat surge. EC seems to think the low of the NSW coast will stay off NSW, whilst high pressure continues to dominate Victoria. Then a stronger front pushes up from the deep and triggers a surge of hot air from W.A into S.A and Victoria. It has the potential of 40's in the Mallee and mid 30's through most of Victoria accompanied with a strong North Westerly. March 9th to 11th could be an interesting days. A very strong looking cold front is now appearing on GFS and EC around March 14th, which could turn into a cut off low.
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EC March 9, 10 runs 27th Feb 12z, 00z.jpg
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Re: 2017 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu Mar 02, 2017 12:13 pm

I’ve been having another look at the potential summer grand finale. Models come up with something different everyday as expected but GFS and CFS are fairly aligned with the polar vortex’s edge becoming deformed and rushing a decent front of cold air towards SE OZ around March 13th that has a tropical feed involved. If it comes off, it sounds like a fairly volatile change of season mix IMO. Also EC not quite agreeing yet but agrees with it being a strong front.
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GFS March 12-13 for run Mar 1st 18z.jpg
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Re: 2017 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by Geoff » Thu Mar 02, 2017 7:35 pm

I'm liking the look of this from AccessG for 12th March. Ex-cyclone moving down from WA on a collision course with a sharp cold front in the Bight, if they come together over SE Oz expect fireworks! :D

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Re: 2017 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by StratoBendigo » Sat Mar 04, 2017 7:51 pm

EC seems to be upping the ante on the cold front for 11th March. Access-G has lost interest, and GFS is meh...

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Re: 2017 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Sun Mar 05, 2017 1:45 pm

Models have been all over the place. One day you think, here we go.... the pattern is changing and the next day it's gone. It might be time for the dart board model ;)

Check out these 2 scenario's with the latest EC and GFS run - EC looks like an end of season KABOOM heading this way and GFS is going for Indian summer heat wave from March 15th to 20th.
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EC March 14th GFS March 17th heat wave.jpg
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Re: 2017 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Mar 07, 2017 4:02 pm

NAEFS run March 6th for March 14th to 21st, suggests summer is still well and truly hanging in there.
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March 14th to March 21st.jpg
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Re: 2017 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:54 am

EC modelled this mid latitude cyclonic gyre that starts off from the south Coast of NSW, cuts off and comes into bass strait :)
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EC March 26th.jpg
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Re: 2017 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by StratoBendigo » Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:34 am

Some hints on both EC and ACCESS-G of a good blow-out of this heat and humidity with a decent cold front from the SW around March 28-29.

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Re: 2017 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:17 am

StratoBendigo wrote:
Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:34 am
Some hints on both EC and ACCESS-G of a good blow-out of this heat and humidity with a decent cold front from the SW around March 28-29.
Still a chance but EC now has a decent cyclone coming in from the coral that might throw a spanner in the works, blocking the highs and forcing the front south. One to keep an eye on for the next few runs.

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Re: 2017 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by Geoff » Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:08 pm

Give AccessG a look for next Thusday 30th, would be interesting if it came to pass. :o

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Re: 2017 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Fri Mar 24, 2017 1:46 pm

Geoff wrote:
Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:08 pm
Give AccessG a look for next Thusday 30th, would be interesting if it came to pass. :o

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Yes, I like the look of that Geoff. It would be great if it timings could tap into the ex TC beast coming down from Nth Qld. That big high pressure ridge behind it worries me though....

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Re: 2017 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Tue Apr 11, 2017 10:56 am

The models have soon to be TC Frances near Darwin eventually drifting through inland Australia as a tropical depression and possibly hooking up with a major cold front around April 20 to 22nd in SE OZ. One to keep an eye on.
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April 10 12z and 18z EC,CMC,GFS.jpg
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Re: 2017 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by Geoff » Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:05 pm

I thought I'd just post this chart as something for us to salivate over while we wait for the current boredom to pass.....

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Re: 2017 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon May 08, 2017 10:40 am

A very large mid latitude cyclonic gyre spinning up chaos between Sth America and Africa on May 18th. One to keep an eye for the end of May, start of June. If it connects with a southern ocean front on it's journey east, it will be a mother of a system.
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EC May 18th set up for May 7th 12z run.jpg
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Re: 2017 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Thu May 11, 2017 10:31 am

Models keep producing a significant rainfall event for the eastern side of Australia late next week. Each run for each model changes locations as you would expect this far out but they keep producing a water bomb. This is the GFS May 10th 18z run showing a 175mm to 400mm Tasman fed attack on the Alps, with 50 to 100mm other parts of Victoria.
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GFS May 10th 18z rainfall accum to May 20th.jpg
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Re: 2017 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Sun May 14, 2017 4:10 pm

GFS showing a polar vortex classic slipping north and heading to Victoria for the start of winter. First one of these I've seen for the season on a model run. That will be low level snow if it powers in at that strength with a little bit of moisture.
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GFS polar pulse May 30th - run May 14 00z.jpg
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Re: 2017 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by Geoff » Mon May 29, 2017 8:26 am

I've been looking at all the main extended models I can find, and there seems to be general agreement on a cold first half to June, and possibly the whole month below average temperatures could be on the cards, with high pressure staying mostly to our west.
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Re: 2017 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon May 29, 2017 9:33 am

Geoff wrote:
Mon May 29, 2017 8:26 am
I've been looking at all the main extended models I can find, and there seems to be general agreement on a cold first half to June, and possibly the whole month below average temperatures could be on the cards, with high pressure staying mostly to our west.
Yep, Certainly a chance for a frontal set up and low to develop based on the latest runs.

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Re: 2017 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Mon May 29, 2017 9:36 am

All models are believing a cut off low could be on the cards somewhere in South East OZ between June 6th and 12th. EC is getting bigger on rain and snow.
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EC 29 May 12z  outlook.jpg
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Re: 2017 Possible upcoming weather events

Post by JasmineStorm » Wed May 31, 2017 1:20 pm

GFS has chopped and changed, Access has wiggled a fair bit, CMC has upgraded and EC has been more steady. Here is the latest from EC for June 7th
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EC 3005 12z for June 7th.jpg
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