The Australian Weather Forum

GFS showing extreme instability values for tomorrow for all central, northern and eastern areas. LI reaching -9 just north of the ranges and CAPE around 2000. Moisture is quite deep through the atmosphere tomorrow (today, in contrast, was dry as chips). While it's hard to tell exactly how widespread...

3mm here from this fizzer. We had about 1mm of drizzle this afternoon after a bit of a shower this morning and yesterday evening. Month to date is just over 32mm which surprisingly seems to be on the high side compared to what a lot of people are reporting. It's still very green on and around the mo...

Ended up with 16.7mm here with a second thunderstorm not long after which also contained hail but much less of it.

Just got absolutely smashed here. 1.5-2cm hail, lawn is all patches of white. Luckily cars appear not to have sustained any damage and only a handful of leaves off the deciduous trees. Only 9.5mm managed to make it into the gauge although I'm waiting on a bit of hail to melt at the top. From the sub...

Looks like an incursion of warm and moist NE'lies before a deepening trough approaches us from the NW on Friday and passes through by Monday. Models indicating high instability values and a strong potential for storms more or less statewide. The question mark is whether we see widespread showers/sto...

We've had a similar pattern here where flowers and leaves on trees were taking ages to come out, but just in the last week or so since the heat it's all just gone nuts with flowers and leaves coming out on trees literally overnight. Plum trees have massive amount of fruit set atm, close to as much a...

We're basically in uncharted territory atm with the near complete absence of any troughs in the westerly belt over the continent and extreme high pressure domination at this time of year. It is a December pattern basically, maybe even late December early January. The heat builds up through central a...

Synoptic pattern and temperatures across the country are summer like. I've never seen such high pressure domination and lack of westerly activity over our latitude in October. The temperatures predicted amongst the various models for this week are extreme for the first/second week of October, and no...

There was a relatively short burst within the rain band where there was very heavy rain, small hail mixed in and also some wind squalls. At that stage the temp dropped to 5C here (where it currently sits atm). 12mm all up from that, so a pretty short and sharp front in the end. Definitely spring lik...

Average rain in Melbourne CBD up to the end of August is only 400mm. Bendigo is pretty dry but it is still a bit wetter than some places in the outer western suburbs of Melbourne (eg. Werribee). We are significantly down on rainfall here. 407mm ytd (should be somewhere around 540mm from the top of m...

Thanks for the trip down memory lane hillbilly. :D I can't believe it even snowed at Phillip Island that day. I'll be bloody annoyed if history repeats itself Monday/Tuesday. We still have another 4 weeks until settlement on our new Cowes property. :( I'm pretty sure 850T was about -7C or something...

GFS doesn't look all that cold to me, only -4C 850T at the most. EC looks slightly colder. I know there are probably other factors to consider beyond just 850T but it's usually a pretty good indicator. It will certainly be cold but not much more than 600m at this stage the way I'm seeing it. Models ...

Hi Droughtbreaker. Acknowledging of course that this is a Victorian thread but is there enough moisture for us to get low level snow in Tassie? Many years ago people were on skis travelling over the Tasman bridge when snow fell in the Hobart CBD. There may be some flurries in higher suburbs of Hoba...

General model consensus is still showing -5C 850T for the southern half of VIC on Monday which I guess, if there is a shower or two about, could lead to some flurries down to about 500m or thereabouts. It's still a battle between the massive high to the west and the LWT. The concern is that the LWT ...

It's looking very shaky going by the latest model outputs. Both EC and ACCESS are now showing the inland low decaying before it can meet up with the incoming LWT over VIC. This low was the main mechanism that was leading to the major cold outbreak and precip (GFS is still showing this scenario), as ...

Just had a short period of solid sleet here with visible snowflakes. I'm at only 520m here so snow is certainly reaching the ground at fairl ylow levels. Temp got down to 3C here at the coldest point in the shower. I could imagine settled snow down to about 700m in Mt Macedon and also at Trentham.

We had two days in a row under -3C minimum here last August, which very rarely happens in my location but in places like Kyneton and Trentham is probably relatively common. Forecasts suggesting about -3C again tomorrow morning. It would be great to crack -4C here. The coldest I have ever recorded he...

BTW, cracked 60mm for this event here with a further 9mm overnight and today. Nice to get a bit of moisture into the soil given the severe El Nino. Things will probably take a turn for the worse from August on, when the El Nino pattern and low moisture levels really start to kick in. Also with regar...

There's some really cold air coming through overnight (-4 850T) and persisting in the negatives until Monday. As the next 'mega-high' comes in and skies clear with very light winds there will certainly be some serious frosts and very widespread. There's also a bit of interest tonight with snow level...

There's been some fairly solid rain this evening. Haven't checked the gauge yet. Up to today we have had 38mm the last 3 days. Basically this is the first sign of 'normal' winter weather. Temperatures have been close to average, if anything maybe a little below average every month since April, but w...