The Australian Weather Forum

Didjman wrote: ↑Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:08 pm JS, how do you read that chart??

Looking for large eddy anomalies propagating upwards into the stratosphere (above 70hPa). Seems like planetary scale waves from the lower troposphere are breaching into the stratosphere over the next 10 days. I look at eddies as a precursor to something bigger.

Precursor to a stratospheric disturbance is appearing in GFS. The eddies chiefly responsible for the transport are the planetary scale waves which when attaining amplitudes twice their monthly average, can be a signal of a large stratospheric disturbance in the near future. First sign that mid to la...

EC and UK upgrade with GFS the German model Icon producing another Bass strait cut off extratropical cyclone.

GFS still going for broke :) Today's 18Z run dropping the 524 thick line over Melbourne on Monday morning, snow around sea level if there is moisture available. Looks about a degree colder @850 hPa throughout Vic than the last polar surge. More a SW flow this system. Still over 100 hours to go for t...

Finally went back and checked my snow records for this location (since 1997). It's been really interesting... well, at least for me :). Only including 'snow days' when snow settled (as opposed to fell but didn't settle): - We've had at least one snow day every year except 2006 and 2009. - Before th...

Snow totals in the Alps are huge. All eyes will be on the Spencer creek weekly snow depth reading 8-) Spencer creek comes in at 202cm. Equals 1990,91 & 92 record for consecutive years above the 198cm snow depth historical mean. Models are still ramping up the upcoming Sunday / Monday system :)

New Spencers Ck reading out today: 202.7cm; a gain of 77.5cm in a week. Puts this ytd slightly ahead of 2018. Incredible trend and equals the record for years in a row over the historical mean of 198cm. The first and last time there was 3 years in a row was 1990, 1991 & 1992. This will most lik...

43mm for the event, including snow :) 2nd settled snow event here in the last 4 winters. Locally it normally snows once a winter but settling on the ground is rare..... and unusually this one occurred during daylight hours. Snow totals in the Alps are huge. All eyes will be on the Spencer creek week...

Looking forward to the Spencer creek recording this week Perisher now officially over the 3 foot storm mark for this last sequence.

Bass strait and the bays has pumped energy into the snow surge this morning. Snowed for quite a while and settled locally. Very unusual in daylight hours for here at this elevation. Incredible event locally in the Macedon Ranges and seems like that as well for the Dandenongs and parts of the Yarra V...

Nice updates crew. Briefly snowed a couple of times during the night here. The main show is now heading in from the south.

Based on current obs in central Vic, it seems likely sleet could go to 100m, snow down to 200 to 250m.

For those who like looking at obs, keep an eye on King Island. Coldest air will arrive there between 10 and 11pm. If it drops below 6c, the airmass is colder than models have projected. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT60801 ... 4850.shtml

Good question Temp difference between the bay and 850 hPa At 4am will be around 18c. Ideal for cold convection and increased energy to drop levels very low. Melbourne suburbs will need to be around 3c to be a chance in my opinion

Didjman wrote: ↑Sat Aug 10, 2019 7:09 pm

Hawker wrote: ↑Sat Aug 10, 2019 6:53 pm What's going on in that cold air field?
Has it tried to develop a low?

On the 4pm synoptic a front is developing

Yep, the upper low is giving birth to that frontal boundary

Hawker wrote: ↑Sat Aug 10, 2019 6:53 pm What's going on in that cold air field?
Has it tried to develop a low?

The cold air pool has an upper low which has cut off and is heading northward straight at the Otways. Currently the centre of upper low is just SW of Tassie. Will be over Melbourne around 5am.

Polar cold shot, has some moisture aloft. Rocketing up on the western side of Tassie. ETA into the Otways 1am, through central between 4am to 9am.

Just Sleety flurries after sunrise here. Nice pics everyone. Great satellite pic Hawker. Cyclone Peter is vortex shedding out to his south east, which is the multiple circulations you can see. Fluid dynamics at its best. GFS 18Z is producing one of the best upper cold shots I'ver seen modelled into ...

Ballarat has now dropped to 1.6c with a 1.6c DP. Big fat flakes I'd say. Gordon must be doing well. Nothing settled on this webcam. But yeah you’d think nice snow at those temps. http://auswebcams.com/#gallery-21 Some nice ground cooling going on. Good chance to settle tomorrow morning I'd say. Jus...

Ballarat has now dropped to 1.6c with a 1.6c DP. Big fat flakes I'd say. Gordon must be doing well.

1.8c here, a few brief flurries but the moisture split on the range, might get a few more soon. Ballarat (435m) has plenty of moisture at 2c currently