The Australian Weather Forum

Looks like a cold showery last few days of May to me, and a foggy, frosty start to June.

Either the "front" has entered the radar hole out west, or it has died a death before it's even got here. I favour the latter at the moment.

Thanks for those webcam links Strato, haven't seen those before.

Just a grey nothing sort of day here, an odd spit of rain but nothing more.
All the rain is dumping on Bass Strait (again), they really should build a dam out there!

Geez it's a loooong time since anyone has posted their photos in here, so here we go with some pics I took in our garden yesterday Saturday May 13th, click on images to enlarge..... https://s28.postimg.org/syglq9421/DSCN3875.jpg https://s28.postimg.org/zdfmmxart/DSCN3881.jpg https://s28.postimg.org/...

Signs appearing in the models that this will favour northern Victoria and NSW, with southern areas largely missing out. Need to see a few more runs yet, still too far out.
Perfect autumn days here lately, colours peaking now on top of the Dandenongs, very late this year.

I think you got the title for this thread right Harley34, the models are struggling with the details as there could well be a tropical link from Queensland with this system. As for later in the month, there are strengthening indications of some strong fronts affecting our part of the world, the AAO ...

Plenty of showers piling in from the S/W but they seem to be struggling to get past the Otways at 8pm. Just not enough moisture to keep them going yet.

Side note: I'm seeing on the CFS model that the frontal conveyor belt is sending some big fronts towards us in the last week of May on today's 12z. Yes JS, the latest AAO backs this up with a big negative forecast after mid month...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/...

The SAM (AAO) Index has gone strongly positive for the next two weeks, so looks like a drier than average first half of May could be on the cards.

Finally cleared up a bit this afternoon with a glimpse or two of sun. Drizzle and light rain over the last day has netted another 14mm, so event total stands on 80mm so far. 139mm MTD.

Getting a bit jealous looking at the webcams around Melbourne and the Bay showing blue sky and sunshine while we're shrouded in fog and drizzle up here!

...and here comes the drizzle. Absolutely thick heavy drizzle here with warm air advection and the flow off the bay, we can get 30mm overnight in the right set ups, lets see if it lasts.

stevco123 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 27, 2017 1:10 pm Flow gone back to a more southwesterly now, with showers seemingly penetrating into more eastern and south-eastern suburbs now

Yes good spot stevco123, amazing what a difference just a slight change in the flow makes.

Looking at the radar the flow has gone a tad more southerly now, and showers are now heading our way and getting a boost from Westernport Bay. It could also mean more rain for the CBD and surrounds coming straight up Port Phillip.

Frustrating how those wintry showers have just missed us most of the day to our east and west. I reckon if we were 20km further west we would be pushing 100mm already.
Already down to 5.7C here at 8pm despite the BOM forecast of a 7C minimum.

Just had a decent hail and graupel shower up here. Noticeably colder air now.

Similar here Occluded.
Just emptied another 23mm from the gauge, takes us to 66mm for this event and 125mm MTD. Yes I thought it might go too southerly for us here today to get much more, but still plenty to come over the next few days.

39mm here overnight and today gives us 43mm for the event so far. I still reckon we're going to give 100mm a run this week.

Convective type showers appearing out of nowhere over Melbourne area. Just getting first rains from them here now. Main rain area still way back over the border. Interesting start to the day!