The Australian Weather Forum

Ec has actually been fairly keen in most runs has 20mm for melb tomorrow

Hmm that is interesting and probably good news for us in Vic who want more rain, although wind will be worse as well. Let's keep our eye on it. 150km is a decent distance

You mean we're going to get shafted by just a few kilometres. Again? That'll be right http://stormcast.bsch.com.au/tmp/gfs.raincast.bsch.init-2016122700z.start-0.stop-192.vic..png Latest GFS...similar to the other models...we were always in hope the big falls were going to hit Melbourne and the mod...

Wait. Is Melbourne going to miss out? Possibly on the big storms and heavy rain. Will depend on position of low. These things are always very complex. At the moment GFS has 25-50mm on either side of Melbourne, ie gives Western subs 25-50mm, and North East 50-75mm. But it gives Melbourne East and No...

Hopefully EC is underestimating convective rain

Skywalker wrote:Well I'm predicting the western suburbs will get absolutely smashed. Reason being I won't be there!

Latest Gfs has pockets of 50mm for western burbs next few days

If GFS plays out there will be damage and destruction. It won't be just the run of the mill storms, it'll be some of the biggest ones we have had in years

Gfs keeps ramping up Thursday. Can't wait Can you specify? Check the variables on this out. Record precipitate water values, low lifted index, relatively high CAPE, high temps and dew points, and a trigger from the trough. Things look pretty good for all types of storms, Id say heavy rainfall, larg...

Gfs keeps ramping up Thursday. Can't wait

Looks like Adelaides system. Hope we at least get a storm or two on Thursday to give us something! There were never massive totals forecast here for this system, however I've always and still remain in the hope of a very last minute upgrade considering the moistire that is available. It'll hurt if w...

Thursday looks potentially huge. The variables are record breaking, just need it to fall into place. GfS possibly has a dry slot, that's the only thing preventing 50-100mm falls

Yeh Gfs has come right on board. Thursday looks like a potential one in five year event

EC still has 40mm for Melbourne. Gfs a fair bit less maybe 10-20mm. BOM less again with their max ranges to around 20mm. BOMs forecast is wrong if u take into account actual possibilities. Anyway that's why we use models and forums, to get a more reasonable idea of what is possible

It's on. Also Gfs has a monster in gulf of carpentaria over next ten days. Up to 800mm for North qld!!!!

For the record BOM and GFS had barely anything for SA today and SA copped some wild storms with heavy rain which is still persisting. Models not handling this system and the abnormally high humidity well so far. I was thinking about 4 feb 2011 this event is the closest we have had since. For that ev...

They aren't realistic forecasts at times, especially this time of year when things are fluid. For an agency we all pay tax to and which is relied upon by so many, it doesn't cut it. For instance, Christmas day could end up being close to 40 and we have known this for a few days, however BOM just sti...

Agree Gordon although it is highly fluid, but BOM need to have realistic ranges with rainfall to take into consideration more scenarios.

The thing that frustrates me as a weather lover is BOM's failure to mention the word 'humidity'.

Not good enough

Nice posts. EC has 60mm for Melbourne on Thursday and ACCESS has the same amount on Friday. Glad there was some easterly bias. Now need to cross our fingers and watch the models

How interesting. Forecasts going from possible 42 degrees to nw saying record breaking rains. Who can keep up? The ridge has totally broken down in models. It had protected us from the trough and main action but now models r saying the main stuff will dump on us in time and will try and connect fro...

Models are funnelling down moisture like never seen before. Don't even be surprised if the models can't quite get the totals right because some of these precip water values look fairly unprecedented. Remember 4 feb 2011? Well that's a good comparison. EC is forecasting large parts of SA will have Da...