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- by weathergasm
- Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:33 am
- Forum: General Weather Archives
- Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
- Replies: 505
- Views: 202000
Latest Melbourne Skew-T indicates Total Totals of 51 and a Lifted Index of -4.8, so very clearly a big jump in instability from yesterday (when the respective values were 40 and -0.2). That said, the proximity of the trough to Melbourne makes me worry a bit. It could very well move over us before pe...
- by weathergasm
- Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:57 pm
- Forum: General Weather Archives
- Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
- Replies: 505
- Views: 202000
I think it’s highly unlikely the sea breeze is going to moderate to an extent that would allow those storms to creep into the suburbs. Today was always a very slight chance for storms in Melbourne, and once that sea breeze establishes itself it really kills off any chances for storms within its marg...
- by weathergasm
- Sat Jan 18, 2020 2:22 pm
- Forum: General Weather Archives
- Topic: Victoria - Warm then more rain - 13th-26th Jan 2020
- Replies: 505
- Views: 202000
Edit: Looks very marginal for Melbourne airport at the time the balloon went up - but things can change. Yeah, my interpretation of the ol’ Skew-T is basic at best (I just look at the TT and LI values on the top right lol) but both indicate only somewhat unstable conditions. Time to play the waitin...
- by weathergasm
- Thu Nov 28, 2019 3:36 pm
- Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
- Topic: VIC - Near Stationary, sharpening LWT 26 Nov - 2 Dec
- Replies: 75
- Views: 36250
When will "normal" conditions return and the usual summer storms type weather come back?...its been a long time! Despite Melbourne’s distance from areas directly affected by the northern monsoon, a lot of our widespread summer storm outbreaks are attributable to that moisture being advect...
- by weathergasm
- Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:36 pm
- Forum: The MET Centre
- Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
- Replies: 336
- Views: 200670
I think the front tomorrow is going to be very typical of the kind of moisture-sapped, gusty cold front we’ll see a lot of this summer here in Melbourne. Until at least January it seems - the BOM have said in their latest tropical update there is no sign of any monsoon trough south of the equator, a...
- by weathergasm
- Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:52 pm
- Forum: Australian Weather Archives
- Topic: Vic Trough/Front Nov 2-4 2019
- Replies: 114
- Views: 83045
Lovely little storm here in Box Hill, one of the rare occasions you could see the anvil above the western horizon well before it hit. Not hugely lightning active or anything but so refreshing to see! Still getting occasional flashes to the east now. The walk home this afternoon definitely had a mild...