The Australian Weather Forum

Relative upgrade from the BOM this afternoon, talking up chance of storms for tomorrow afternoon, with slightly increased rain totals for the following two or three days.

BOM’s latest climate outlook doesn’t fill me with a lot of confidence for good early-mid winter rainfall in central Victoria.

It was never forecast to be a deluge for Melbourne, at least not by the BOM. Some of the models temporarily hinted at the possibility of moderate totals though.

After the series of huge duds that happened in the lead up to the February dry spell, I’ll only begin believing when I see it on radar.

Accidentally clicked on the weather forecast for Darwin and almost got excited about the coming week

This storm season definitely fell far below my expectations this year. La Niña - even though it was a relatively weak one - just didn’t come through in the way I had hoped for central Victoria. Last summer was much more eventful in terms of storms in my area, even though it got off to an absolutely ...

I’m fairly sure this run of insanely boring weather is actually never going to end

Time to pick another hobby

I’m fine with humid weather IF it precedes a thunderstorm, or at least some nice steady rain. Any other time - like today - it just annoys me.

Yep, weather looks interminably boring for the next 10ish days. Look on the bright side, no fizzers!

I would hate being a weather nerd based in Melbourne who didn’t have other hobbies

Even I concede this was a gigantic dud.

Seeing that thin, broken line of convection on the very back end of the ‘main’ band in western Vic starting to solidify a bit. Models seems to indicate the chance of storms until late in the evening, that could be the beginning of a few sparks for the Melbourne metro area later.

stevco123 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:48 pm What could go wrong?

Great, now you’ve jinxed it

Happy to see only a comparatively small downgrade (5mm from yesterday) in the BOM’s latest forecast.

Looking forward to seeing what tomorrow brings to the metro area

Like all of you I’ll believe 20-40mm for the CBD when I see it. For now I’ll just assume a huge downgrade will be issued at 4:20pm tomorrow, as is the tradition for the Melbourne metro BOM office.

Only model not so keen is GFS which splits the rain somewhat between southern NSW and Bass Strait.

That sounds about par for the course lol

Best lightning show for months here in Box Hill. Flashes directly overhead every 20 seconds, lasted a good 20 minutes too.

Now replaced by heavy rain.

The coldies definitely have a bit of grunt to them here in Box Hill, very rumbly shower of hail just went through.

A fairly substantial looking line winding up from the south on radar too.

Not seeing much of anything in the models for the next 10 days. If you like settled weather for whatever reason, soak it up:)

wobbie wrote: ↑Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:49 pm At least it's not stinking hot and bone dry

I’m with you, I’ll take a summer of slightly disappointing events over a summer of open furnaces any day

In any case the storm season still has at least another three months in it so I’m not too depressed yet

Here in Box Hill I’m not seeing anything to get excited about. We got some lovely rain yesterday but it wasn’t anywhere near as stormy an event for my area as I’d hoped.

On to the next one...