This beast is upgrading...... I didn't think that could be possible.... History tells us, this has to downgrade. If it doesn't, this is carnage for most of vic
Thanks for the welcome Jake and tend to agree with your and ilovestorms comments. BoM are in a tough position......but their severe weather forecasters would have heightened senses and slightly quicker heartbeats watching this unfold. If it keeps lining up like this, they'll have to pull the trigger...
Starting to really ramp up on GFS on the latest run. 986 hPA over central Victorian highlands late Wednesday accompanied with a bucket tipping from the sky. I need to look 3 times and rub the eyes ... Long way to go though.....Looking forward to the next EC run.
Hi guys, tend to agree on maybe the upside near 10mm in the south. The latest satellite pic is showing a little more feed from the north than was originally thought. It will definitely keep the gauges ticking overnight across Vic.
On the Beaufort scale 64 knots + is a hurricane (cyclone). If you live on the west coast of Vic facing south on Thursday night.... it could be a touch cyclonic
The models are definitely fascinating..... If they keep lining up like this by Tuesday, I think this storm might have to be given a name. Models are absolute atomic....but....will it go off....
Agree with this mornings analysis. Interesting updates from the last run on GFS, it's upgraded its rainfall....especially across the ranges. Models are wiggling around as you would expect but this still looks fairly serious. Rainfall across the ranges just outside Melbourne are now becoming consiste...
Thanks for the Welcome Geoff. I've been watching the forums for a while but decided to pull the trigger once the EC model kept reporting the same story, then BoM jumped in as well overnight. GFS is too erratic for me but it's also coming into line. One thing is for sure....it's a very strong cold fr...
Based on current models, this beast deserves its own thread. This maybe the largest weather system and rain event since January 2011 for SE Oz. It's going to throw the kitchen sink at SE Australia. Extreme wind, heavy rain and the back end looks like sending a polar pulse and low snow fall by Friday...