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by JasmineStorm
Wed Aug 28, 2019 7:03 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 336
Views: 200299

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

I am watching for Tropopause lowering :D Unless the big one is still coming, the vortex split at the weekend appeared rather weak and short lived (though 3 small vortices for a few hrs @ 70hpa). Any updates on forecast temps for Friday at 10hpa JS?? EC is still holding a peak of around 4c @10 hPa o...
by JasmineStorm
Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:05 am
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 336
Views: 200299

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

The first downward zonal attack from the SSW to commence at the start of September into the troposphere. NZ maybe first cab off the rank. Volatility within medium term models runs will now ramp up. The follow up downward zonal attacks look to be in the 2nd half of September. All eyes now shift to tr...
by JasmineStorm
Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:22 am
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 336
Views: 200299

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Goodness me.....GFS has a negative -8 contour line on it's SAM index in the upper stratosphere at the end of next week :o

The anomalies are showing signs of propagating towards the troposphere
by JasmineStorm
Mon Aug 26, 2019 6:01 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 336
Views: 200299

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Thx JS :D What is likely to happen to the vortex from that?? Split in 3?? I'm not sure, its unchartered waters now. At a guess, the upper vortex would be displaced to almost outside the 60 degree Antarctic circle by the anticyclone. The jet stream will probably completely lose its mind in the weeks...
by JasmineStorm
Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:39 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 336
Views: 200299

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Latest EC upper Strat temperatures for Friday. +6c bubble inside the +4c contour line over the South Pole :o
by JasmineStorm
Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:14 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 336
Views: 200299

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Didjman wrote: Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:19 pm
Is EC still forcasting +4c for 10hpa for end of month JS??
Latest EC run (00z) showing a pocket of +6c on Friday. Truly remarkable in recorded history.
by JasmineStorm
Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:29 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 336
Views: 200299

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

I can see the temp' gradient you posted above for the 10hPa showing -78 on the cool side and - 8 on the warm side. That gives a gradient hill of about 70deg c Is that what you are saying? Polar vortex at 10 hPa is normally between -60c to -80c in August (you can see that in this attached shot). Lat...
by JasmineStorm
Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:56 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 336
Views: 200299

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

As I mentioned in a post here the other day, this could coincide with a projected strong MJO. What then........? I'm keeping any eye on that one ;) Also watching the easterlies in the tropical pacific. If moisture becomes involved with any polar vortex surge from a SSW, it will go atomic in the sou...
by JasmineStorm
Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:50 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 336
Views: 200299

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

I can see the temp' gradient you posted above for the 10hPa showing -78 on the cool side and - 8 on the warm side. That gives a gradient hill of about 70deg c Is that what you are saying? Polar vortex at 10 hPa is normally between -60c to -80c in August (you can see that in this attached shot). Lat...
by JasmineStorm
Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:23 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 336
Views: 200299

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

I'm seeing a +60 to +70c temperature anomalies on EC 00Z 22082019 in the upper stratosphere at the end of August over Antarctica. Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls....I'm speechless. In the short term, this will have a global impact on weather patterns over many months if it comes off.
by JasmineStorm
Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:11 pm
Forum: New South Wales / Australian Capital Territory
Topic: SNOW FALLS in NSW...Past and present
Replies: 22
Views: 22563

Re: SNOW FALLS in NSW...Past and present

This week's reading is in for Spencers Creek: 222.4cm - a 20cm gain and an almost identical reading to the same day last year! Deep Creek is slightly down at 103.2cm. No update yet for Three Mile Dam. As of today's reading, that now puts the 2010 to 2019 decade average peak at 193cm, which I now th...
by JasmineStorm
Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 336
Views: 200299

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Didjman wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:12 am So is this pointing to possible La Nina??
Still very neutral in my opinion but its certainly getting interesting.
by JasmineStorm
Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:29 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: VICTORIAN SNOW. Past and Present
Replies: 4
Views: 8475

Re: VICTORIAN SNOW. Past and Present

Looking great for snow enthusiasts in Vic again this weekend.
by JasmineStorm
Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:17 am
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 336
Views: 200299

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

At the moment I can't find a model that doesn't think it will not happen. Obviously the lower stratospheric polar vortex is currently under stress. The overall strength is now the main question but EC looks incredible at this stage. On other driver topics - it's fair to say that almost all climate m...
by JasmineStorm
Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:41 am
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 336
Views: 200299

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Main EC model goes KABOOM by 31 Aug. Full blown SSW @ 10 hPa over the South Pole.
by JasmineStorm
Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:39 am
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 336
Views: 200299

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Goodness me.....over 100+ models across multiple agencies are now showing an extraordinary heat bomb developing over the polar region in the upper stratosphere at the end of August.
by JasmineStorm
Tue Aug 20, 2019 7:07 am
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 336
Views: 200299

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

This is starting to look epic. I'm going to start preparing for an extreme equinox period ;)
by JasmineStorm
Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Outlook Accuracy
Replies: 5
Views: 9129

Re: Climate Outlook Accuracy

Nice reading Gordon :) I actually only read the BoM's monthly outlook now for comic relief. As pointed out before, Access S is not factoring SAM into winter rainfall outlook for certain areas of Victoria, which could be done before the end of each month. Their rainfall forecasts have been a 100% bus...
by JasmineStorm
Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:55 am
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: VICTORIAN SNOW. Past and Present
Replies: 4
Views: 8475

Re: VICTORIAN SNOW. Past and Present

Great shots Crikey!

Here is another from Falls creek carpark in the height of the storm I saw online.