I am watching for Tropopause lowering :D Unless the big one is still coming, the vortex split at the weekend appeared rather weak and short lived (though 3 small vortices for a few hrs @ 70hpa). Any updates on forecast temps for Friday at 10hpa JS?? EC is still holding a peak of around 4c @10 hPa o...
The first downward zonal attack from the SSW to commence at the start of September into the troposphere. NZ maybe first cab off the rank. Volatility within medium term models runs will now ramp up. The follow up downward zonal attacks look to be in the 2nd half of September. All eyes now shift to tr...
Thx JS :D What is likely to happen to the vortex from that?? Split in 3?? I'm not sure, its unchartered waters now. At a guess, the upper vortex would be displaced to almost outside the 60 degree Antarctic circle by the anticyclone. The jet stream will probably completely lose its mind in the weeks...
I can see the temp' gradient you posted above for the 10hPa showing -78 on the cool side and - 8 on the warm side. That gives a gradient hill of about 70deg c Is that what you are saying? Polar vortex at 10 hPa is normally between -60c to -80c in August (you can see that in this attached shot). Lat...
As I mentioned in a post here the other day, this could coincide with a projected strong MJO. What then........? I'm keeping any eye on that one ;) Also watching the easterlies in the tropical pacific. If moisture becomes involved with any polar vortex surge from a SSW, it will go atomic in the sou...
I can see the temp' gradient you posted above for the 10hPa showing -78 on the cool side and - 8 on the warm side. That gives a gradient hill of about 70deg c Is that what you are saying? Polar vortex at 10 hPa is normally between -60c to -80c in August (you can see that in this attached shot). Lat...
I'm seeing a +60 to +70c temperature anomalies on EC 00Z 22082019 in the upper stratosphere at the end of August over Antarctica. Ladies and Gentlemen, boys and girls....I'm speechless. In the short term, this will have a global impact on weather patterns over many months if it comes off.
This week's reading is in for Spencers Creek: 222.4cm - a 20cm gain and an almost identical reading to the same day last year! Deep Creek is slightly down at 103.2cm. No update yet for Three Mile Dam. As of today's reading, that now puts the 2010 to 2019 decade average peak at 193cm, which I now th...
At the moment I can't find a model that doesn't think it will not happen. Obviously the lower stratospheric polar vortex is currently under stress. The overall strength is now the main question but EC looks incredible at this stage. On other driver topics - it's fair to say that almost all climate m...
Goodness me.....over 100+ models across multiple agencies are now showing an extraordinary heat bomb developing over the polar region in the upper stratosphere at the end of August.
Nice reading Gordon :) I actually only read the BoM's monthly outlook now for comic relief. As pointed out before, Access S is not factoring SAM into winter rainfall outlook for certain areas of Victoria, which could be done before the end of each month. Their rainfall forecasts have been a 100% bus...