The Australian Weather Forum

Most recent Melbourne sounding (and I am looking at the right one this time!) has Lifted Index of -6.4 and Total Totals of 56. If you get a storm today it’ll likely be a doozy. I don't remember my calculus, but the area (CAPE) between the black curved line and the dry adiabatic lapse rate line is h...

There's convection but it's not organizing into storms. On the Melbourne sounding, there was a cap at around 16k ft, so without forcing not a lot was going to happen. Hopefully tomorrow is better. Melbourne fcast for tomorrow: Humid. Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the a...

QldTwister wrote: ↑Fri Dec 23, 2022 6:18 pm Images arent working for me sadly but love to see them

Twister, did you right click on each icon and select view in another tab??

Gordon wrote: ↑Fri Dec 23, 2022 1:10 pm Unbelievable pics, and worth the trouble to click to open on yours Didjman!

Thx Gordon! Yeah that left mover from the airport looked an absolute beast - never seen one like that down here for ages. I actually saw a swirl on the gust front as it passed overhead.

I was up the hill above Wallan in my car during the storm Skywalker referred to. Was pretty full on with whiteout rain for 5-10 mins, strong winds and small hail. Once it cleared, I photographed this spiral on my phone almost overhead" https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hn25bdLg52ZbMMPLDKnUWQP2tY...

Lots more building out west. At my local obs post up the hill, I had rotation overhead, torrential rain for 5 mins and hail

Storms firing from Maryborough to Melton atm

Look at the heat across the northern half of the country! Once the pattern changes down here - expect heat and grass fires in the long growth!

22mm here with a couple of close crackers

StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 7:00 pm Rainbow radar indicated a supercell near Donald this evening. Looked nasty.

I noticed some breakaway left movers

Storms will be fast moving NW to SE due to150kt jet

STW out already for heavy rain / large hail. Renmark getting slammed atm!

This mornings forecast is indicating afternoon wind tomorrow to 50klm for Melbourne. Times that by 1.5 for here!

Intermittent mizzle here

23 mm here since Friday

Australis(Shell3155) wrote: ↑Sun Nov 13, 2022 7:32 pm Welcome Back James. …. !

Happy not to have the storms as I was expecting today,
Some of the reports from recent events seem extreme.

Same on Friday. From the CBD 1000 ft up (flr 36 of Suncorp Building), I saw 90 deg wind shear. Glad overcast killed any development on that one!

They are forming along a dry line:

http://realtime.bsch.com.au/index.html? ... p=#nav#nav

Stuff going up near Colac - fast moving in usual direction. Satloop as a large break in the cloud racing toward Melbourne (near Horsham). Might be all we need.

On the 2300Z sounding at Tulla, there were very small caps at 5000 / 10000ft. Once broken, storms will top out at around 33000ft. LI -4.4C, PW 29.6mm, TT 52. Heaps of Cape also (forgotten my calculus so can't remember how to calculate it ).

Latest model runs (18Z) have the atmosphere exploding around lunchtime across a large swathe of Vic. LIs -6, Cape 1400