Search found 907 matches

by James
Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:01 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 63
Views: 5437

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

still yet to hear a rumble of thunder here so far this season
by James
Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:43 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.
Replies: 63
Views: 5437

Re: Trough with low to our north: 27-31 October.

is there a sea breeze keeping it from coming more into the eastern suburbs?
by James
Sat Oct 24, 2020 11:52 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 9770

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

haha, i knew when i gave up on it, it would then HAVE to deliver (on the rain at least!)

such a shame no thunder and lightning at all here so far this season
by James
Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:00 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 9770

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

indeed, i didnt water any of the pots or vegies yesterday or today because of the hype around rainfall...you know what, they are still limp awaiting that rain!, if it fails to deliver tonight I will also never listen to forecasts or models again because I also put off plans for the weekend because i...
by James
Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:36 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 9770

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

isolated thunderstorms - possibly severe is forecast in latest bom update, ok lets see....I will believe it when it happens!
by James
Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 9770

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

suns peeking out here now and then, and my plants are all leaning over awaiting this rain......will I water, or will I be patient??
by James
Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:43 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 9770

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

after all the fails for this area in terms of storms so far, I have very little expectations this time around
by James
Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:55 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?
Replies: 119
Views: 9770

Re: another 1 or 2 lows tracking SE over Vic 22 Oct - ?

I'm reserving judgement/excitement till the day when it happens, will this one be more thundery - actual storms? I remember when it was reasonably common for it to be stormy around Halloween and it was quite funny seeing people dressed up, with the appropriate (real) thunder and lightning effects! :D
by James
Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:17 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 7613

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

I get being disappointed by forecasts that don’t turn out the way you want them to, but if you want certainty out of a hobby maybe start growing bonsai or something, because following the weather clearly isn’t for you😂 I myself read these threads to figure out when I should be on heightened alert f...
by James
Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 7613

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

another fail in terms of predictions, i had to laugh at the storm charts being shown on various weather groups showing severe storms for the east of Melbourne, lo and behold this afternoon it was changed to further east :P As I said earlier I am not sure why people still feel these predictions are a...
by James
Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 7613

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

The weather is difficult to predict, guy. Particularly the track and speed of low pressure systems. The BOM can’t just look at what the model ensemble is telling them will happen and say “well, the last few times it said Melbourne would receive 25mm it didn’t happen so let’s just cut the forecast r...
by James
Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:33 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 7613

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

and i might add the times we have the best weather are almost always when its not predicted!
by James
Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:32 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 7613

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

its always the pattern, everything looks fine until close to the event then it downgrades, that's not really "forecasting" IMO when you can always change it when the time is closer. how accurate are these models, are these statistics anywhere for these? I've watched the BSCH models for years and can...
by James
Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:16 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 7613

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

my point was more that everyone on here gets excited predicting storms/weather that never eventuates, looking at models saying there are (that's pretty much what keeps this page going) But in reality it almost never delivers what it says, also if I cant complain, I wont post anymore...its part of it!
by James
Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:30 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 7613

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

at this stage i am pretty over the forecasts and planning ahead according to them, so far it really hasn't happened each time as forecast, its much more accurate to just take it as it comes, most of the time it doesn't seem to!
by James
Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 7613

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

looks like nothing much is going to happen here today - once again
by James
Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:02 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 7613

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

I hope there is actual storms this time - we seem to keep predicting them but nothing happens, whats different tomorrow that its more likely than the last weeks/month where they always failed? The best way to approach storm forecasts is to simply ignore them and not get excited, especially in winte...
by James
Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:55 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct
Replies: 80
Views: 7613

Re: Another low tracking south over Vic/Tas 16-19 Oct

I hope there is actual storms this time - we seem to keep predicting them but nothing happens, whats different tomorrow that its more likely than the last weeks/month where they always failed?
by James
Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October
Replies: 188
Views: 17423

Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

stevco123 wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:32 pm
Is forecasting a mere 10% of the original progs classified as a fizzer to anyone else? 3 to 8mm, compared to 30 to 80 (roughly) just days ago 😡😡😡
but isn't that always the way?
by James
Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:56 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October
Replies: 188
Views: 17423

Re: Warm with possible heavy falls developing: First week of October

but isnt that almost always the way? :( seems familiar!

oops delete this one