Search found 1629 matches

by StratoBendigo
Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:32 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 21843

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

12z GFS has moved it further West again.

We might be in with a shot. Ironically 5-6th March was rather memorable 10 years ago too...
by StratoBendigo
Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:15 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 21843

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Yes, EC for the win. Still anything from 2 to 100mm is possible.
by StratoBendigo
Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:51 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 21843

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

This morning's forecast models have wobbled back East. On the edge of nothing or 80mm.

I'm back to watering the plants again...
by StratoBendigo
Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:32 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 21843

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

Certainly an upgrade overnight for us. We're still "on-the-edge" of the system this Thursday-Friday.
by StratoBendigo
Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:31 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?
Replies: 127
Views: 21843

Re: 1-7 March: Cold front then ex TC or trough?

EC looks bonkers. 6mm on Sunday night then 85 mm in the landphoon....

Other forecast models not that keen.
by StratoBendigo
Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:17 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 335
Views: 46599

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Latest BOM climate forecast for Autumn. Hopefully a decent drink for Southern Australia:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-27/ ... h/12005560

Again, this doesn't surprise me given that this year feels so much like 1995 all over again so far.
by StratoBendigo
Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:25 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Mild to warm, then some rain: 22-26 Feb
Replies: 51
Views: 10337

Re: Mild to warm, then some rain: 22-26 Feb

Nearly broke a Feb minimum record of 4.0c here. Got down to 4.7c!

Redesdale just broke it's lowest Feb temp with 2.6c this morning.

Next week's system perhaps should be called "Landphoon Esther"...
by StratoBendigo
Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:19 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Mild to warm, then some rain: 22-26 Feb
Replies: 51
Views: 10337

Re: Mild to warm, then some rain: 22-26 Feb

A very pleasant 22c today.

A big shift in the forecast models for next week. Both EC and GFS reckon Ex-TC Esther will do a U-turn over the Kimberly and then make a bee-line for Vic.

Watch this space...
by StratoBendigo
Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020
Replies: 336
Views: 39854

Re: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020

It feels like Autumn this morning. Cloudy but no rain.

EC is hinting at a significant system from the Northeast around Monday the 24th , although the other forecast models aren't at all interested.
by StratoBendigo
Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020
Replies: 336
Views: 39854

Re: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020

All over here. Perhaps 0.4 mm.
by StratoBendigo
Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:19 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020
Replies: 336
Views: 39854

Re: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020

I'm not expecting much here this week. We didn't get much last week either (just 4 mm).

So while our part of town has done OK this month (58 mm MTD), the airport AWS is on 18 mm which is below average for Feb.
by StratoBendigo
Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020
Replies: 336
Views: 39854

Re: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020

Just 3mm in round one. Round two about to hit.
by StratoBendigo
Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:59 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020
Replies: 336
Views: 39854

Re: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020

Decent storm here. Not a patch on last week's monster but it appears to be backbuilding...
by StratoBendigo
Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020
Replies: 336
Views: 39854

Re: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020

Explosive cloud development here at present. Fasten your seatbelts....
by StratoBendigo
Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:56 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020
Replies: 336
Views: 39854

Re: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-12, 2020

30c and 42% humidity here. Am I in Brisbane or Bendigo?

Some cumulus heading skyward atm... I wonder if we'll get more dumpers tonight like we did on Thursday evening?
by StratoBendigo
Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020
Replies: 336
Views: 39854

Re: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-12, 2020

Some interesting model outputs for Friday. Probably looking at 10-30mm here.

Of interest to Qld and NSW is Cyclone Uesi which may brush or even cross the East Coast around the same time:
https://www.cyclocane.com/uesi-spaghetti-models/
by StratoBendigo
Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:46 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020
Replies: 336
Views: 39854

Re: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-12, 2020

Only just a tiny drop of rain from initial rain-band. Too much shadowing here in an Easterly.

Sydney knows how to have big daily rainfall totals.
by StratoBendigo
Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:21 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020
Replies: 336
Views: 39854

Re: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-12, 2020

Rain is creeping into NE Vic now. Expecting rain here by early morning.
by StratoBendigo
Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:46 am
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-20, 2020
Replies: 336
Views: 39854

Re: Vic - Humid & Potential for Rain: Feb 5-12, 2020

Overcast with high cloud and humid this morning. The next week looks rather wet and sub-tropical. A rather sustained setup. I'm thinking 25-50mm in the next 7 days here.