Search found 149 matches

by weathergasm
Thu Nov 28, 2019 3:36 pm
Forum: Victoria / Tasmania
Topic: VIC - Near Stationary, sharpening LWT 26 Nov - 2 Dec
Replies: 75
Views: 14113

Re: Near Stationary, sharpening LWT 26 Nov - 2 Dec

When will "normal" conditions return and the usual summer storms type weather come back?...its been a long time! Despite Melbourne’s distance from areas directly affected by the northern monsoon, a lot of our widespread summer storm outbreaks are attributable to that moisture being advected from tr...
by weathergasm
Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:36 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 335
Views: 67460

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

I think the front tomorrow is going to be very typical of the kind of moisture-sapped, gusty cold front we’ll see a lot of this summer here in Melbourne. Until at least January it seems - the BOM have said in their latest tropical update there is no sign of any monsoon trough south of the equator, a...
by weathergasm
Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:50 am
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 335
Views: 67460

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

All those upper troughs won’t do us much good if they’re not meeting up with some tropical moisture, so here’s hoping the +IOD breaks down sooner rather than later.
by weathergasm
Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:52 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Vic Trough/Front Nov 2-4 2019
Replies: 114
Views: 28825

Re: Vic Trough/Front Nov 2-4 2019

Lovely little storm here in Box Hill, one of the rare occasions you could see the anvil above the western horizon well before it hit. Not hugely lightning active or anything but so refreshing to see! Still getting occasional flashes to the east now. The walk home this afternoon definitely had a mild...
by weathergasm
Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:18 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Vic Trough/Front Nov 2-4 2019
Replies: 114
Views: 28825

Re: Vic Trough/Front Nov 2-3 2019

When the models have this kind of divergence I tend to assume we’ll receive half of whatever the most conservative model says. That way I’m pleasantly surprised if I receive anything more👌
by weathergasm
Sat Oct 12, 2019 8:36 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC - Strong front: October 7-9 2019
Replies: 40
Views: 10702

Re: VIC - Strong front: October 7-9 2019

I think last night/today was the opening of the real storm season I think - classic, non-frontal convection on the ranges. Even here in Box Hill we had very convective looking cumulus for much of the afternoon. With just that little bit deeper instability and heating it would have been a very intere...
by weathergasm
Tue Oct 01, 2019 5:44 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 335
Views: 67460

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

Latest ENSO wrap-up from BOM released today indicates positive IOD going from strength to strength: “The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains positive, with the latest weekly index value to 29 September at +1.76 °C. This is the highest weekly value observed in the Bureau's dataset which extends from 20...
by weathergasm
Thu Sep 26, 2019 4:56 pm
Forum: The MET Centre
Topic: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)
Replies: 335
Views: 67460

Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO , SAM)

The BOM seem to think that a negative SAM results in less summer rain for us here in Victoria because it impedes moist easterly/northeasterly airmasses. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/sam/#summer That in combination with a strong, persistent positive IOD doesn’t seem to bode well for us. Looks like a...
by weathergasm
Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:36 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Victoria - Troughs and possible low - September 1-7 2019
Replies: 87
Views: 20585

Re: Troughs and possible low: September 1-7

How I wish the positive IOD would bugger off
by weathergasm
Sat Jul 13, 2019 5:03 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Vic: Fronts and troughs 9 - 19 July
Replies: 148
Views: 25563

Re: Vic: Fronts and troughs 9 - 16 July

Had one of the better hail-bearing coldies I can remember in recent times pass through Box Hill around 1pm. Finished with a big boom of thunder too, not bad.
by weathergasm
Thu May 09, 2019 9:33 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC - Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12 2019
Replies: 189
Views: 29419

Re: Strong fronts and possible low: May 7-12

The whinging is annoying. Particularly from those who live in historically dry parts of the state, or who live in a rain shadow that’s been there for tens of thousands of years complaining a rainband or line of storms missed them. Well duh, if you don’t like it then move out of the rain shadow or go...
by weathergasm
Thu May 02, 2019 5:13 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC - Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May 2019
Replies: 167
Views: 30945

Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

Looking the obs it appears the surface convergence is in Melbourne’s outer east, not to the west of Geelong. What am I missing?
by weathergasm
Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:13 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC - Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May 2019
Replies: 167
Views: 30945

Re: Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May

If history is any guide the BOM are probably wise to divide the model-projected totals by five every time. Can’t fault them lol
by weathergasm
Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC - Humid with showers and storms, followed by strong front: March 22-26 2019
Replies: 93
Views: 13665

Re: Humid with showers and storms, followed by strong front: March 22-26

What I assume is a trough is sitting west of Melbourne (in a line from Swan Hill to Lorne) - winds to the east of the trough are somewhat humid northeasterlies, while winds to the west of it are drier westerlies. If this was a normal year I would be on the lookout for cells popping up in the area th...
by weathergasm
Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:45 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC - Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8
Replies: 63
Views: 8932

Re: Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

I’m struggling to see where these supposed showers forecast for tonight are supposed to be coming from. I miss RAIN. The sound of it, the scent of it, the sight of it.

La Niña, please come back. All is forgiven.
by weathergasm
Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:49 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC - Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24
Replies: 33
Views: 4905

Re: Weak troughs and highs: Feb 16-24

This run of incredibly boring settled weather is just interminable. At this point I’m barely bothering to look at the forecasts. Here’s hoping for the monsoon to go out with a big bang and for a favourable synoptic lineup to bring some of that precipitatable water down here (and meet up with a nice,...
by weathergasm
Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:14 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC - Cooler with a couple of stronger fronts: Feb 9-14
Replies: 51
Views: 6613

Re: Cooler with a couple of stronger fronts: Feb 9-14

Nice to see a half decent cold front for once :) I'm seeing a near 20c degree difference from the Port Philip bay surface and 850 hPa this afternoon. A key ingredient of cold convection. Yep. Definitely worth checking on the radar after the main band has passed if you're in the eastern suburbs, cou...
by weathergasm
Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:31 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms
Replies: 269
Views: 30975

Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Time to say the magic words, storm-hungry Melburnians: diurnal cooling.

It's our last hope!
by weathergasm
Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:19 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms
Replies: 269
Views: 30975

Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

I was surprised that BOM were still so bullish in their 5am forecast given that the trough was clearly knocking on Melbourne's door at that time. Even their four day synoptic forecast showed how close it was predicted to be at 10am today. I can only assume they thought the trough would stall over ce...
by weathergasm
Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:27 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms
Replies: 269
Views: 30975

Re: VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

Variable but tending southerly winds here in Box Hill, very settled looking skies to the west, big billowing cumulus to the east. Signs don't look good for Melbourne metro if you're after a storm, unfortunately.