When will "normal" conditions return and the usual summer storms type weather come back?...its been a long time! Despite Melbourne’s distance from areas directly affected by the northern monsoon, a lot of our widespread summer storm outbreaks are attributable to that moisture being advected from tr...

I think the front tomorrow is going to be very typical of the kind of moisture-sapped, gusty cold front we’ll see a lot of this summer here in Melbourne. Until at least January it seems - the BOM have said in their latest tropical update there is no sign of any monsoon trough south of the equator, a...

All those upper troughs won’t do us much good if they’re not meeting up with some tropical moisture, so here’s hoping the +IOD breaks down sooner rather than later.

Lovely little storm here in Box Hill, one of the rare occasions you could see the anvil above the western horizon well before it hit. Not hugely lightning active or anything but so refreshing to see! Still getting occasional flashes to the east now. The walk home this afternoon definitely had a mild...

When the models have this kind of divergence I tend to assume we’ll receive half of whatever the most conservative model says. That way I’m pleasantly surprised if I receive anything more

I think last night/today was the opening of the real storm season I think - classic, non-frontal convection on the ranges. Even here in Box Hill we had very convective looking cumulus for much of the afternoon. With just that little bit deeper instability and heating it would have been a very intere...

Latest ENSO wrap-up from BOM released today indicates positive IOD going from strength to strength: “The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains positive, with the latest weekly index value to 29 September at +1.76 °C. This is the highest weekly value observed in the Bureau's dataset which extends from 20...

The BOM seem to think that a negative SAM results in less summer rain for us here in Victoria because it impedes moist easterly/northeasterly airmasses. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/sam/#summer That in combination with a strong, persistent positive IOD doesn’t seem to bode well for us. Looks like a...

How I wish the positive IOD would bugger off

Had one of the better hail-bearing coldies I can remember in recent times pass through Box Hill around 1pm. Finished with a big boom of thunder too, not bad.

The whinging is annoying. Particularly from those who live in historically dry parts of the state, or who live in a rain shadow that’s been there for tens of thousands of years complaining a rainband or line of storms missed them. Well duh, if you don’t like it then move out of the rain shadow or go...

Looking the obs it appears the surface convergence is in Melbourne’s outer east, not to the west of Geelong. What am I missing?

If history is any guide the BOM are probably wise to divide the model-projected totals by five every time. Can’t fault them lol

What I assume is a trough is sitting west of Melbourne (in a line from Swan Hill to Lorne) - winds to the east of the trough are somewhat humid northeasterlies, while winds to the west of it are drier westerlies. If this was a normal year I would be on the lookout for cells popping up in the area th...

I’m struggling to see where these supposed showers forecast for tonight are supposed to be coming from. I miss RAIN. The sound of it, the scent of it, the sight of it.

La Niña, please come back. All is forgiven.

This run of incredibly boring settled weather is just interminable. At this point I’m barely bothering to look at the forecasts. Here’s hoping for the monsoon to go out with a big bang and for a favourable synoptic lineup to bring some of that precipitatable water down here (and meet up with a nice,...

Nice to see a half decent cold front for once :) I'm seeing a near 20c degree difference from the Port Philip bay surface and 850 hPa this afternoon. A key ingredient of cold convection. Yep. Definitely worth checking on the radar after the main band has passed if you're in the eastern suburbs, cou...

Time to say the magic words, storm-hungry Melburnians: diurnal cooling.

It's our last hope!

I was surprised that BOM were still so bullish in their 5am forecast given that the trough was clearly knocking on Melbourne's door at that time. Even their four day synoptic forecast showed how close it was predicted to be at 10am today. I can only assume they thought the trough would stall over ce...

Variable but tending southerly winds here in Box Hill, very settled looking skies to the west, big billowing cumulus to the east. Signs don't look good for Melbourne metro if you're after a storm, unfortunately.